Kyle Stowers called up

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How did he make them look tougher?  First one was a line drive fly over his head.  Made a nice back hand outstretched catch.  In the 9th, he was getting close to the wall and went into a slide and never took his eye off the ball.  Excellent catch. Last out was a catch on the run and he went into a slide like all outfielders.   He deserves credit for 3 nice plays, not some faint praise like he turned ordinary plays into tough looking catches.

First of all, I don’t think I gave faint praise.   I called all three “difficult catches.”  And, I brought them up.  

As to why I said he “perhaps” made them look more difficult than they were:

1.  On the one near the wall, he ran a little tentatively and if he’d been running a bit more flat-out I don’t think he would have needed to jump at the end.

2.  On the sliding catch he went into his slide a little early and had to pop partway up to complete the catch.  

I think he could have made these plays a bit more smoothly and they would have looked a little less difficult.  But they were difficult, and he made them.  So good for him. 

 

[Brooks The Great]

It's really a shame what Hyde and Elias did to Vavra and Stowers over the past month or so. Terrible management. 

Both players work counts much better than Odor (who's thankfully, finally done as a regular player based on Hyde's most recent comments) and Hays, and both players have higher upsides than Odor and Hays. 

It sounds like Vavra will be the regular 2B moving forward. The right move is to make Stowers an everyday player and platoon Hays, but I doubt Hyde will do that because he favors vets and isn't a smart manager when it comes to optimizing lineups.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

It's really a shame what Hyde and Elias did to Vavra and Stowers over the past month or so. Terrible management. 

Both players work counts much better than Odor (who's thankfully, finally done as a regular player based on Hyde's most recent comments) and Hays, and both players have higher upsides than Odor and Hays. 

It sounds like Vavra will be the regular 2B moving forward. The right move is to make Stowers an everyday player and platoon Hays, but I doubt Hyde will do that because he favors vets and isn't a smart manager when it comes to optimizing lineups.

I don’t think it’s clear at all that either Stowers or Vavra will be better than Hays.   

[IPlayGM]

I think you will find out that Hays (yet again) has been playing through injury for some time now.

[glenn__davis]

41 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I think you will find out that Hays (yet again) has been playing through injury for some time now.

I think that is very possible as well, but if so....that's got to be a bit on Hyde as well.  Hays' 2nd half numbers are pretty brutal and it's not like we didn't have options that could step in and help.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, IPlayGM said:

I think you will find out that Hays (yet again) has been playing through injury for some time now.

No question he has.  He has had multiple injuries, including his wrist which is likely effecting him.

But that’s the problem with him.  He’s always hurt.  You just can’t rely on him to be an everyday player. 
 

I am not sure if any site shows first and second half splits on WAR but I believe he has had a negative WAR in the second half of the season.

[Bahama O's Fan]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s clear at all that either Stowers or Vavra will be better than Hays.   

But I think we "know" what Hays is. We don't know about them, so let's find out. I think there is a chance of a higher ceiling.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nice game for Stowers all the way around.  Two run homer, RBI single, and three difficult catches in the outfield, though perhaps he made them look a little harder than they should have been. Anyway, nice game.  

This catch had a 90% chance of being caught which counts as his first 2 star catch.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1c17f654-1118-4783-9ea9-3574a93c0e2e

This catch had a 95% chance of being caught

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2967ec1c-b7f0-4fd2-b8d3-330e6cd6a80f

So yeah, he made them a little harder then they probably should have been, but he made them.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No question he has.  He has had multiple injuries, including his wrist which is likely effecting him.

But that’s the problem with him.  He’s always hurt.  You just can’t rely on him to be an everyday player. 
 

I am not sure if any site shows first and second half splits on WAR but I believe he has had a negative WAR in the second half of the season.

Luckily for you, I always write my midseason report card and give stats including rWAR and fWAR at the exact halfway point of the season.  Hays was at 2.4 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.  Today he’s at 1.7 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR.  So, that’s -0.7 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR since the midway point.   His slump actually started about a week before then.  

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/45086-my-2022-midseason-report-card/#comment-2783276

It’s been a tough second half for Hays.

 

[Sports Guy]

Of players with 100 PA or more, 54 OFers have a higher fWAR than Hays and 10 others have the same WAR as he does.

[Hank Scorpio]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s clear at all that either Stowers or Vavra will be better than Hays.   

I think Hays is a better player than he has appeared to be the last two months. Maybe he's hurt from getting plunked 84 times this year. But if that's the case, IL him and get Stowers in there. I don't think you would have THAT much dropoff between the two. 

[Brooks The Great]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s clear at all that either Stowers or Vavra will be better than Hays.   

It's clear to me that both are worth playing over Hays right now to see if they will be better. Hays has been awful for a long stretch. It doesn't matter whether an injury is the cause or not, he's been poor for months. Vavra has been a better offensive player since his promotion in much more limited at bats. And I think Stowers' minor league track indicates that he'd be more productive than Hays has been if Stowers were to be given everyday at bats.

The "we don't know for sure" argument is weak. Hays doesn't deserve to be playing regularly right now, and Vavra and Stowers deserve more playing time at his expense. Period.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of players with 100 PA or more, 54 OFers have a higher fWAR than Hays and 10 others have the same WAR as he does.

30 teams x 3 outfielders = 90 starting outfielders.  So at 55/64, he’s a slightly below average starting OF this year.  Which is pretty much exactly what his WAR would tell you even if you hadn’t given those numbers.  

Last year he was 45th, so pretty much exactly average for a starting OF.  rWAR liked him a little better than that.

So then the question is, what is he next year at 27 years old?   Better, worse, the same?   Is his second half decline the result of lingering injuries, or the pitchers making adjustments and him not adjusting back, or just one of those random fluctuations that happens over 162 games?   Look at Mancini, who had a poor year at age 26 after a good rookie season, then had his best year at age 27.   You just don’t know exactly how these things will go.  I could easily see Hays having a 4+ WAR season next year, or he could play poorly and be relegated to the bench.   
 

[Pickles]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of players with 100 PA or more, 54 OFers have a higher fWAR than Hays and 10 others have the same WAR as he does.

So he's basically the 2-3rd best outfielder on a major league roster.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So he's basically the 2-3rd best outfielder on a major league roster.

Well, no. Remember, WAR is a counting stat and how much you play matters.

Hays is 25th in PA amongst OFers.

Take a guy like McKenna. He has a 1 WAR, not far from Hays but he has 30% the PA Hays does.  Keirmaier is .3 WAR away and has less than half the PA. Brantley is .2 WAR away in half the PA.  These are just a few examples.

So, there is more to it than just the number.  I think he’s a borderline starting OFer and should be a 4th OFer because he’s just not reliable.  He shouldn’t be a guy you are depending on.