Lyles, Voth, Gallagher and Garcia

[wildcard]

I think if the O's are shooting to win the division they should try to get to be in the top 3 in the the AL in starting ERA.   That would be 3.51 ERA or better that the Yankees starters had this season.   I don't see how they do that by picking up Lyles contract.  Lyles 4.42 ERA does not help their rise in the standings. 

I rather they sign someone else in FA.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[Jim'sKid26]

Big questions to answer here.

1) How many innings do GRod and DL give you in 2023?

2) Who can repeat (or better) their 2022 performance in 2023 from the Bradish, Kremer, Voth contingent?

3) Who of the available FA SP is interested in coming to B'more.

4) Will the ownership signoff on a ToR SP deal? 

 

I think after you answer those questions you can decide whether to keep Lyles. He is what he is. He's unlikely to pitch better and he's very likely to regress. It's hard to see a scenario where he is worth the option salary for 2023.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Big questions to answer here.

1) How many innings do GRod and DL give you in 2023?

2) Who can repeat (or better) their 2022 performance in 2023 from the Bradish, Kremer, Voth contingent?

3) Who of the available FA SP is interested in coming to B'more.

4) Will the ownership signoff on a ToR SP deal? 

 

I think after you answer those questions you can decide whether to keep Lyles. He is what he is. He's unlikely to pitch better and he's very likely to regress. It's hard to see a scenario where he is worth the option salary for 2023.

I have been playing with this a little as I am sure others have.  Here is what I think:

Bradish  175 IP,   3.28 ERA,   33 Starts

Kremer 154 IP,   3.23 ERA, 28 Starts  (2 S and 10 IP WBC)

Voth  132 IP   3.04 ERA, 23 Starts

Grayson  100 IP, 3.50 ERA,  22  Starts

Means 100 IP, 3.81 ERA 15 Starts

FA ?

DL Hall   130 IP (40 of which are in the minors) 90 IP, 4.00 ERA, 18 S  That is my projected capability for him 

Tyler Wells available for some starts but mostly in the pen.  4.25 ERA in 2022.

Watkins mostly at AAA but available to make major league starts when needed.  4.17 ERA as a starter in 2022.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have been playing with this a little as I am sure others have.  Here is what I think:

Bradish  175 IP,   3.28 ERA,   33 Starts

Kremer 154 IP,   3.23 ERA, 28 Starts  (2 S and 10 IP WBC)

Voth  132 IP   3.04 ERA, 23 Starts

Grayson  100 IP, 3.50 ERA,  22  Starts

Means 100 IP, 3.81 ERA 15 Starts

FA ?

DL Hall   130 IP (40 of which are in the minors) 90 IP, 4.00 ERA, 18 S  That is my projected capability for him 

Tyler Wells available for some starts but mostly in the pen.  4.25 ERA in 2022.

Watkins mostly at AAA but available to make major league starts when needed.  4.17 ERA has a starter in 2022.

Just curious, what’s your basis for guessing Bradish will start 33 times but Kremer will make only 28 starts?  Is it just because of the WBC, or are there other reasons?

In any event, it’s all pure guesswork who will be healthy enough to make 33 starts and who won’t.  The ERA’s look very optimistic to me.  If Voth pitched to a 3.04 ERA, why would be only make 23 starts?

[Sports Guy]

If they do non tender him, I think it shows you that they either don’t really believe in him, think he will have no options and sign for less or the whole, we are ready to spend thing is total bs.

If he is a DFa candidate by June, would anyone really be surprised?

That said, I would keep him for depth.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[jamalshw]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have been playing with this a little as I am sure others have.  Here is what I think:

Bradish  175 IP,   3.28 ERA,   33 Starts

Kremer 154 IP,   3.23 ERA, 28 Starts  (2 S and 10 IP WBC)

Voth  132 IP   3.04 ERA, 23 Starts

Grayson  100 IP, 3.50 ERA,  22  Starts

Means 100 IP, 3.81 ERA 15 Starts

FA ?

DL Hall   130 IP (40 of which are in the minors) 90 IP, 4.00 ERA, 18 S  That is my projected capability for him 

Tyler Wells available for some starts but mostly in the pen.  4.25 ERA in 2022.

Watkins mostly at AAA but available to make major league starts when needed.  4.17 ERA has a starter in 2022.

If we got those numbers from the guys you state, I don't know if we need any other SP. That said, I think those ERAs are incredibly optimistic. I get Voth had a 3.04 ERA this year in 22 games (17 starts) and Kremer had a 3.23, but do expect some regression. If I can get a sub-4 ERA from Bradish, Kremer and/or Voth over a full (or mostly full) season of starts next year, I would consider it a success. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just curious, what’s your basis for guessing Bradish will start 33 times but Kremer will make only 28 starts?  Is it just because of the WBC, or are there other reasons?

In any event, it’s all pure guesswork who will be healthy enough to make 33 starts and who won’t.  The ERA’s look very optimistic to me.  If Voth pitched to a 3.04 ERA, why would be only make 23 starts?

Bradish made 23 starts in the majors and 6 in the minors.  That is 29 and I add 30 innings and 6 starts for next year but he can't make more than 33.

Kremer made 21 starts in the majors and 3 in the minors.  That is 24 and I add 30 innings and 6 starts that is 30, minues 2 for the WBC.  So 28.

Voth made 17 starts in the majors.   Add 6 starts and 30 innings.  That is 23.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[Jim'sKid26]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have been playing with this a little as I am sure others have.  Here is what I think:

Bradish  175 IP,   3.28 ERA,   33 Starts

Kremer 154 IP,   3.23 ERA, 28 Starts  (2 S and 10 IP WBC)

Voth  132 IP   3.04 ERA, 23 Starts

Grayson  100 IP, 3.50 ERA,  22  Starts

Means 100 IP, 3.81 ERA 15 Starts

FA ?

DL Hall   130 IP (40 of which are in the minors) 90 IP, 4.00 ERA, 18 S  That is my projected capability for him 

Tyler Wells available for some starts but mostly in the pen.  4.25 ERA in 2022.

Watkins mostly at AAA but available to make major league starts when needed.  4.17 ERA has a starter in 2022.

Please pass the Orange Kool-aid.

[InsideCoroner]

I feel like Voth has earned another year. If we let him go and he kept pitching as well as he did after leaving the Nats, we would look pretty damn foolish.

Lyles was fine for the club this year and did what he needed to do, but I think we need better caliber arms if (if…) we’re truly going for it in ‘23. Put that $11M in savings as a down payment towards a better arm. 

What’s the timetable on Means’ return, is he tentatively due back before midseason?

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

If we got those numbers from the guys you state, I don't know if we need any other SP. That said, I think those ERAs are incredibly optimistic. I get Voth had a 3.04 ERA this year in 22 games (17 starts) and Kremer had a 3.23, but do expect some regression. If I can get a sub-4 ERA from Bradish, Kremer and/or Voth over a full (or mostly full) season of starts next year, I would consider it a success. 

The O's lost Means, Grayson and Tyler Wells to injuries in 2022.  I think we have to project 9 starters.  Especially  with Means, Grayson, Hall and Tyler Wells with limited innings.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

I feel like Voth has earned another year. If we let him go and he kept pitching as well as he did after leaving the Nats, we would look pretty damn foolish.

Lyles was fine for the club this year and did what he needed to do, but I think we need better caliber arms if (if…) we’re truly going for it in ‘23. Put that $11M in savings as a down payment towards a better arm. 

What’s the timetable on Means’ return, is he tentatively due back before midseason?

Means had surgery in April.  They say 12 to 18 month recovery.  He is just starting soft toss now.  I would project July for the majors. Maybe rehab assignment in June.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

There’s no reason they can’t pick up Lyles 11 M option and sign/trade for another starter.  Lyles gives you innings and that has value.   Signing him is a low risk move and he can still be traded in season if the other rotation pieces are looking strong.

[RZNJ]

I am not counting on anything from Means in 2023.  I assume Mike Elias is proceeding under the same assumption.  

[LookinUp]

40 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

If we got those numbers from the guys you state, I don't know if we need any other SP. 

I wonder if MLB is going to keep managing baseballs exactly the same in 2023 as they have in 2022. I also wonder what effect the lack of shift will have on these numbers.

If either change, ERAs league wide should go up. Seems to be a safe assumption that the lack of shift will raise ERAs across baseball.

I have no idea what they do with Lyles, but $11 million is a lot for a guy who might be most likely to have a 4.5-5.00 ERA next year. They could rip that contract up and resign him for less, or let him walk and just go after other guys. I doubt he's kept at that price though.

[Jim'sKid26]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There’s no reason they can’t pick up Lyles 11 M option and sign/trade for another starter.  Lyles gives you innings and that has value.   Signing him is a low risk move and he can still be traded in season if the other rotation pieces are looking strong.

So Jordan Lyles turns 32 tomorrow and will play at that age through the 2023 season. He was worth $11.5 M last year according to Fangraphs. So how likely is he to repeat 2022?

Well, in 2022 he pitched the second most innings of his career (179). He had 180 for Texas in 2021. Does he give you another 180ish inning in 2023? I doubt it and I hope not. I hope the O's have better pitchers taking those innings. But, remember, his value is very much tied to eating innings. So if he gets those innings, does he likely pitch well enough to earn his money?

The league hit .275 against him in 2022 with a 10.4% barrel rate and a 38.1% hard hit rate. 

Since 2019 his Barrel % has gone 7.6%--> 7.8%-->9.1%-->10.4%. Not a good trend. Similarly, his K% 24.4-->13.5 (2020)-->19.0-->18.6.

Since 2019 His FB velocity, 92.6-->92.2-->92.8-->91.5.

So tell me why you think there is a high likelihood Lyles earns his $11M salary in 2023? I just don't think it's very likely.