Injured Prospects and their upside for 2023

[CharmCityHokie]

Frobby's Breakout Prospect's post had me thinking of the multitude of injured prospects and what we can hope and expect from them in 2023. It's obviously hard to guess given that the Orioles guard any injury news or updates as if it's a state secret, but I figured I'd look through the list of who could jump up prospect lists if healthy for '23. I'm going with what I can remember so if anyone else has heard updates about health and progress about the following it'd be great to know and if you can think of anyone else who missed significant time in 2022 I'd be interested to hear thoughts as well.

Carter Baumler: Had a fantastic 4 starts to begin his professional career after battling injuries all of 2021, but only made it 11.2 IP before going down. Right shoulder inflammation was the last news I heard, but he missed almost the entire season. Hopefully he's healthy for '23, and at least he has age on his side (won't be 21 until January), but I don't want to start getting Hunter Harvey vibes.

Kyle Brnovich: Made 2 AAA starts, blew out his elbow and had TJ in early May. Might not make it back next year at all. He's Rule 5 eligible after the '23 season

Zach Peek: Was having a good AA season with 11 starts made, until...see Brnovich, Kyle. Had TJ in early August, won't be back for 2023. Tough for him, as by the time he makes it back he'll be 26 without a ton of MiLB experience and much like his fellow Angels-drafted colleague, he'll be Rule 5 eligible after the '23 season. 

Brandon Young: UDFA after the short 5-round 2020 draft, put up strong numbers in 3 starts to begin the year at AA and then disappeared. I have no recall and can't find anything about his injury.

Carlos Tavera: 5th round pick of the '21 draft (and first pitcher taken by the Orioles in that draft), was holding his own with a strong K/9 rate through 16 (short) starts at A+ (57IP) and then was gone before August started. Like Young, I'm not sure what the issue was but he didn't come back from it for '22.

 

Anthony Servideo: He seemed to be injured all year, even when he was playing. He just didn't look right at all. Hopefully he can get an off season of rest and build back up his strength. He'll be 24 before the season starts and barely has a total of 134ABs under his belt, none coming above A ball.

Reed Trimble: 2nd rounder from the '21 draft, has barely played due to injuries. In the past two seasons he's made it into 55 total games. He's playing in the AFL now so he should be healthy, hopefully he can start out strong in '23

 

I'm sure there are more that I'm missing, but those are the big ones off the top of my head.

 

 

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, CharmCityHokie said:

 

Kyle Brnovich: Made 2 AAA starts, blew out his elbow and had TJ in early May. Might not make it back next year at all. He's Rule 5 eligible after the '23 season

 

 

 

 

Isn’t that about the same time John Means had his TJ surgery?  The prevailing  feeling among OH posters seems to be that he will be back on the mound around mid-year. That has always struck me as optimistic.

[CharmCityHokie]

56 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

Isn’t that about the same time John Means had his TJ surgery?  The prevailing  feeling among OH posters seems to be that he will be back on the mound around mid-year. That has always struck me as optimistic.

Yes, it was around that same time. I know that people look at the estimated 12-18 month recovery time and hope for the most optimal outcome, which I appreciate but every guy is different. Brnovich might be back next season, but I'm not sure it'll be with particularly high-level competition. Peek almost certainly won't be back until '24. It'll be interesting to see how the roster decisions go with Rule 5 eligibility for them both. I doubt Peek draws much interest given his lack of professional innings and he's not exactly high in most prospect evaluations, but if Brnovich gets back for a few innings next season and looks good, we could have a Zach Pop-redux decision on our hands.

[LookinUp]

On 10/22/2022 at 3:13 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

we could have a Zach Pop-redux decision on our hands.

I'd argue that's pretty likely and that we should get used to it. 

The O's system is getting deep. We're going to lose guys with or without injuries. Teams view it as low cost to pick someone in the Rule V draft just to see what he's got. If I were another org, I'd be poaching anyone that it seems like Elias has liked at any point in the past if they're reasonably healthy. Worst case for them is those guys stink or are still injured and get returned. Too bad. So sad.

[Aristotelian]

14 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'd argue that's pretty likely and that we should get used to it. 

The O's system is getting deep. We're going to lose guys with or without injuries. Teams view it as low cost to pick someone in the Rule V draft just to see what he's got. If I were another org, I'd be poaching anyone that it seems like Elias has liked at any point in the past if they're reasonably healthy. Worst case for them is those guys stink or are still injured and get returned. Too bad. So sad.

Isn't that how we got Tyler Wells? 

[LookinUp]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Isn't that how we got Tyler Wells? 

The O's have been very active in the Rule V draft. That's what teams without talent or minor league depth should do. I actually think all teams should do it in the hopes of hitting on an upside guy.

 

[LookinUp]

I really like this thread. Some very interesting guys.

Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, Baumler is still the single pitcher we have that I really hope is healthy. He really has big upside. Probably 2+ years away best case, and his probabilities look pretty low to me just because of health issues, but if he can get his body right, he could be a stud.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'd argue that's pretty likely and that we should get used to it. 

The O's system is getting deep. We're going to lose guys with or without injuries. Teams view it as low cost to pick someone in the Rule V draft just to see what he's got. If I were another org, I'd be poaching anyone that it seems like Elias has liked at any point in the past if they're reasonably healthy. Worst case for them is those guys stink or are still injured and get returned. Too bad. So sad.

I think we're at least a year or two out from getting to that point. When you can carry three backup catchers and several replaceable pitchers on your 40-man, you still have a ways to go. 

Even with the guys that need to go this offseason, I don't think the organizational will lose anyone of significance this Rule five.

[Jagwar]

Would Seth Johnson fit into this discussion?

[LookinUp]

50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we're at least a year or two out from getting to that point. When you can carry three backup catchers and several replaceable pitchers on your 40-man, you still have a ways to go. 

Even with the guys that need to go this offseason, I don't think the organizational will lose anyone of significance this Rule five.

It think it's a matter of degree. We already lost Zac Pop. This year we have the possibility of losing multiple people kind of like him. Some may end up better with health. Who knows? 

Is it as bad as it'll be in two years? Probably not (depending on trades/roster churn). But I won't be shocked if a guy like Brnovich or Hanifee gets plucked and has success somewhere else next year. 

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I really like this thread. Some very interesting guys.

Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, Baumler is still the single pitcher we have that I really hope is healthy. He really has big upside. Probably 2+ years away best case, and his probabilities look pretty low to me just because of health issues, but if he can get his body right, he could be a stud.

Agreed on the upside, concerned about the timeline. He's Rule 5 eligible after the '24 season, he has 11 IP professionally and he's a high school draftee. He's gotta stay healthy because those 2 years away are going to come quick.

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Would Seth Johnson fit into this discussion?

Absolutely, and he should have been included, I didn't add him in because I watch a lot of Orioles minor league affiliates and since he never pitched for us I didn't really think of him. He needs to be added to the 40-man this offseason in order to be protected from the Rule 5. 

[btdart20]

@CharmCityHokie You've got a great list of rehabbing pitchers to get excited over! As thin as our MiLB SP depth is, it's like having a new draft heading into (or during) the season.

I did some searching for Young (I'm less familiar with him) and came across this article.  It's a good Meoli article recapping the 'type'.  Pretty much every player you mentioned is in this article.

How scouting, patience and ‘hop’ are helping the Orioles develop pitchers in the low minors – Baltimore Sun

 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Would Seth Johnson fit into this discussion?

He’s probably going to miss the whole 2023 season though…or if he does pitch, it will likely be just extended ST type stuff at the end of the year.

[CharmCityHokie]

8 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Would Seth Johnson fit into this discussion?

Also, and I'm going to copy and paste my comments from another post regarding Johnson, but he is going to be an interesting case study in roster management. He's got to go on the 40-man this offseason or be exposed to the Rule 5, he won't be back until 2024, when he'll be 26 years old, and he has a total of 27 innings at A+ which is the highest level he's competed at. The Orioles will have to decide to either put him on the 60-day IL to clear a spot on the active 40, but also pay him MLB money (and start his service time clock), OR they can option him for next season, and then again in the '24 season when he can actually start pitching again and then will hold a final option on him for his age-27 season which is when we can reasonably expect he may be ready for the majors. The second choice of optioning him however will be a black hole on the 40-man roster. It's a complicated risk for sure. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by CharmCityHokie