Why do we need to focus on lefty hitters?

[Sports Guy]

Righties(3792 PA): 

• Park factor: 99 (16th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 102 (14th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 85 (27th in MLB)
• 3B: 63 (23rd in MLB)
• OBP: 103 (7th in MLB)

Lefties(2324 PA):

• Park factor: 94 (25th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 94 (27th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 86 (25th in MLB)
• 3B: 67 (22nd in MLB)
• OBP: 97 (23rd in MLB)

 

Above are some stat cast numbers for OPACY in 2022.  

A common theme on this site and amongst Os fans is that OPACY is now more favorable to lefty hitters and that the Orioles should focus on lefties over righties, yet the stats don't bare that out to be true.

I think they should just target the best hitters they can and let it sort itself out.

[Jim'sKid26]

Current dimensions of OPACY:

    Left Field Line – 333 ft (101 m) Straight Away Left – 384 ft (117 m) Left Center – 398 ft (121 m) Deep Left Center – 410 ft (125 m) Center Field – 400 ft (122 m) (Not posted) Right Center – 373 ft (114 m) Right Field Line – 318 ft (97 m)

Assessing the Impact of New Oriole Park Dimensions - Baltimore Sports and Life

 

It's a longer drive to hit a homerun to Left than it is to right. Now I think your point is well taken in that the RF wall is a bit higher than the Left field wall. But I think the stats bear out that that, at least for 2022, there may not be a huge advantage one way or the other. 

[tabletop]

Last year as a team vs left handed pitching:
Average - 26th
OBP - 25th
OPS - 24th
 

For me, they should be much more focused on signing people that can hit left handed pitching rather than finding guys who can hit from the left side of the plate.

Edited November 3, 2022 by tabletop
typo

[now]

Isn't it just basic math? Facing more RHP means your chances are better with more LHB.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, now said:

Isn't it just basic math? Facing more RHP means your chances are better with more LHB.

So then, you have always advocated for lefties over righties?  

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So then, you have always advocated for lefties over righties?  

It's not necessarily one versus the other but if you're going to be stronger on one side it stands to reason you would want to be stronger vs RHP. It is true, a RHB with good splits vs RHP will get the job done. I'd certainly rather have a good RHB than a poor LHP. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, now said:

Isn't it just basic math? Facing more RHP means your chances are better with more LHB.

Don't LHH tend to have more extreme L/R splits?

I hardly ever hear about a RHH getting a day off against a tough righty.

If you look at the top 10 in wRC+ you have 4 RBH, 5 LHB and one SH.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It's not necessarily one versus the other but if you're going to be stronger on one side it stands to reason you would want to be stronger vs RHP. It is true, a RHB with good splits vs RHP will get the job done. I'd certainly rather have a good RHB than a poor LHP. 

But this was never the cry from Os fans prior to this season.  The reason fans are saying we should focus on lefties is because of OPACY's new dimensions.  Tony talked about how Holliday over Jones may have been right because of the new wall.

Yet, the stats say this isn't true.  The stats say that righties are still more successful in this park even after the changes.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Righties(3792 PA): 

• Park factor: 99 (16th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 102 (14th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 85 (27th in MLB)
• 3B: 63 (23rd in MLB)
• OBP: 103 (7th in MLB)

Lefties(2324 PA):

• Park factor: 94 (25th in MLB)
• xwOBA: 94 (27th in MLB)
• HR: 77 (26th in MLB)
• 2B: 86 (25th in MLB)
• 3B: 67 (22nd in MLB)
• OBP: 97 (23rd in MLB)

 

Above are some stat cast numbers for OPACY in 2022.  

A common theme on this site and amongst Os fans is that OPACY is now more favorable to lefty hitters and that the Orioles should focus on lefties over righties, yet the stats don't bare that out to be true.

I think they should just target the best hitters they can and let it sort itself out.

I think you're using one-year park factors here, which are very noisy.  For example, yes, OPACY had a 77 factor for LH HR in 2022.  But in 2021 it was 168, most friendly park for LH HR hitters in baseball.  In 2020 it was 101, about average. In 2019, 110, 9th. In 2018 124, 4th.  In 2017 116, 9th.

The LF change would have some impact on LH hitters, but not a huge effect.  I would assume that OPACY will continue to be largely the same park for lefties that it's been for years - a good to very good HR park, but also one where the small OF area in RF tends to depress singles, doubles, and triples.

But in the end, I'd just find the best hitters I can and let the park do what it does.  The other team has to play here, too, and they haven't constructed their team with any regards to OPACY.

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't LHH tend to have more extreme L/R splits?

I hardly ever hear about a RHH getting a day off against a tough righty.

If you look at the top 10 in wRC+ you have 4 RBH, 5 LHB and one SH.

That's because there are twice as many RHP and LHP, so it's much harder to sit a RHH and there is less familiarity with LHP.

If you can't hit lefties you're Joc Pederson and you still get 500 PAs.  If you can't hit righties you're Delmon Young and if you're lucky you find a team that'll give such a limited player 200 PAs and he'll still face righties 75 times.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think you're using one-year park factors here, which are very noisy.  For example, yes, OPACY had a 77 factor for LH HR in 2022.  But in 2021 it was 168, most friendly park for LH HR hitters in baseball.  In 2020 it was 101, about average. In 2019, 110, 9th. In 2018 124, 4th.  In 2017 116, 9th.

The LF change would have some impact on LH hitters, but not a huge effect.  I would assume that OPACY will continue to be largely the same park for lefties that it's been for years - a good to very good HR park, but also one where the small OF area in RF tends to depress singles, doubles, and triples.

But in the end, I'd just find the best hitters I can and let the park do what it does.  The other team has to play here, too, and they haven't constructed their team with any regards to OPACY.

Of course but again, the argument being made by people is that we go with lefty hitters because of the new wall and how it effects righties.

My point is, the stats don't bare that out to be true. Sure, it may look different next year but the discussion is based on the here and now and how the Orioles should attack this offseason.

[LookinUp]

The park factor, 16th versus 25th, is significant is it not?

The goal is to squeeze extra value out of the same cost. It's money ball. That doesn't mean you get rid of all RHHs. It just means the calculus is a little different.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't LHH tend to have more extreme L/R splits?

I hardly ever hear about a RHH getting a day off against a tough righty.

Absolutely correct.  In 2022:

RHB v. RHP .700

RHB v. LHP .737

LHB v. RHP .708

LHB v. LHP .647

I expect the numbers to shift a little more favorably to LHB next year compared to 2022 because the shift rules will benefit them more.  But on these numbers, the 8 point advantage you get vs. RHP really isn’t worth the 90 point disadvantage you get against LHP, even though RHP are in the game about 73% of the time.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The park factor, 16th versus 25th, is significant is it not?

The goal is to squeeze extra value out of the same cost. It's money ball. That doesn't mean you get rid of all RHHs. It just means the calculus is a little different.

The park factors favor righties over lefties. (100 is average.  over 100 is favors hitters, under 100 favors pitchers)

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But this was never the cry from Os fans prior to this season.  The reason fans are saying we should focus on lefties is because of OPACY's new dimensions.  Tony talked about how Holliday over Jones may have been right because of the new wall.

Yet, the stats say this isn't true.  The stats say that righties are still more successful in this park even after the changes.

That is interesting. The dimensions would seem to favor LHB way more than RHB but if the numbers don't bear it out that is something to consider.