What will the O's off season moves be?

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have seen Mullins speed rated at 60.   MLB Pipeline says Cowser is 55.  That is equal to Hays but not close to Mullins.  I have seen McKenna rated at 60. 

Range Factor (RF) may be imperfect but its the best I can find for minor leaguers.   Cowser was rated 2.02 as a CF in 2022.  He has a career RF on 1.95 in CF.

Mullins CF RF in 2022 was 2.62.   His career CF RF is 2.76.   Mullins RF is far and away better than Cowser or I can say Not Close.   All these RF numbers are  from Baseball Reference.

Hays is probably a good comp for Cowser defensively when Hays first came up. He's a guy who can play CF, but you probably didn't want him out there every game. Mullins has much better speed than both Cowser or Hays and he gets better jumps in every direction but coming in, which has always been a bit of an issue for Mullins.

 

[wildcard]

One of the key reasons that the O's improved 30 games in 2022 was their defense.  Fans who want to trade Mullins seen to me to be willing to give up the defense that Mullins provides.    I don't think that is a good idea.   Not unless the O's find another CF that has Mullins defensive and offensive abilities.   And Cowser does not appear to have Mullins defense.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One of the key reasons that the O's improved 30 games in 2022 was their defense.  Fans who want to trade Mullins seen to me to be willing to give up the defense that Mullins provides.    I don't think that is a good idea.   Not unless the O's find another CF that has Mullins defensive and offensive abilities.   And Cowser does not appear to have Mullins defense.

I more or less agree with this.  Obviously, I’d be willing to lose a smidge of defense for a big offensive upgrade.  But I’m not sure there’s any such player available.  It’s not like Mullins is all field, no hit.  He had a 106 wRC+, 13th among CF with 400+ PA.  You have to look at what you’re getting in return, but it would have to be a lot.  

[now]

Dunno if this fits in "what the O's will do" but it strikes me as an attractive trifecta:

https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-justin-turner-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw-decisions

Turner for DH, Bellinger for 1B/CF and a retooled bat, Kershaw for the staff ace. Plus it returns Justin T. to Baltimore who drafted him, and finally lands Kershaw after we opted for a different Bedard trade. Don't you think the Elias wizards would love to get to work on Bellinger?

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, now said:

Dunno if this fits in "what the O's will do" but it strikes me as an attractive trifecta:

https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-justin-turner-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw-decisions

Turner for DH, Bellinger for 1B/CF and a retooled bat, Kershaw for the staff ace. Plus it returns Justin T. to Baltimore who drafted him, and finally lands Kershaw after we opted for a different Bedard trade. Don't you think the Elias wizards would love to get to work on Bellinger?

Why would you want Bellinger? He’s got about a .600 OPS in his last 800 ABs over two seasons. If Elias is looking to improve the offense this is not the way. 
 

It sounds like Kershaw will decide between the Dodgers and a Texas team near his home.

Turner is a reasonable option but where are you going to play him? Plus only 20 homeruns in 653 ABs, how many would be outs in our LF? 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, now said:

Plus it returns Justin T. to Baltimore who drafted him

The O’s did not draft Justin Turner.  He was acquired when we traded Ramon Hernandez to the Reds in the 2008-09 offseason.   He played briefly with the O’s in 2009, and was claimed off waivers by the Mets in 2010.   

[Yardball85]

Good stuff from Mike Elias here.  He predicts that we will address the MLB roster as soon as possible.

 

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Good stuff from Mike Elias here.  He predicts that we will address the MLB roster as soon as possible.

 

Love it!  Elias is saying all the things I want to hear.  He didn't temper spending expectations either...  Here's to hoping (conservative/reasonable) expectations match reality!

[Aristotelian]

On 11/8/2022 at 9:19 AM, wildcard said:

One of the key reasons that the O's improved 30 games in 2022 was their defense.  Fans who want to trade Mullins seen to me to be willing to give up the defense that Mullins provides.    I don't think that is a good idea.   Not unless the O's find another CF that has Mullins defensive and offensive abilities.   And Cowser does not appear to have Mullins defense.

Mullins also made great strides with his arm. He's really a plus defensive CF. I know he disappointed coming off a 30/30 year but even so still managed close to 4 WAR. Whatever we get for him better be good because I don't think we have a 4 WAR CF ready to step in. Maybe the assumption is we sign Nimmo but I'd like to see that happen first before trading a core player.

[Aristotelian]

11 hours ago, now said:

Dunno if this fits in "what the O's will do" but it strikes me as an attractive trifecta:

https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-justin-turner-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw-decisions

Turner for DH, Bellinger for 1B/CF and a retooled bat, Kershaw for the staff ace. Plus it returns Justin T. to Baltimore who drafted him, and finally lands Kershaw after we opted for a different Bedard trade. Don't you think the Elias wizards would love to get to work on Bellinger?

I hope not. Bellinger is damaged goods ever since he dislocated his shoulder doing a celebration. 

I would be very interested in Kershaw but you have to think he is going to have options with LAD having the inside track. I could see them making (and him taking) a QO. 

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O’s did not draft Justin Turner.  He was acquired when we traded Ramon Hernandez to the Reds in the 2008-09 offseason.   He played briefly with the O’s in 2009, and was claimed off waivers by the Mets in 2010.   

We drafted his DP partner in college, Blake Davis.

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mullins also made great strides with his arm. He's really a plus defensive CF. I know he disappointed coming off a 30/30 year but even so still managed close to 4 WAR. Whatever we get for him better be good because I don't think we have a 4 WAR CF ready to step in. Maybe the assumption is we sign Nimmo but I'd like to see that happen first before trading a core player.

So trade the cheap Mullins and sign the expensive Nimmo.   Doesn't sound like the Orioles.