Orioles 2022 #4 Prospect DL Hall - LHP

[RZNJ]

While I'm not confident of Hall being a #3 starter or better, I certainly think his floor is a very capable setup man or closer.   I was disappointed in his stuff, particularly his fastball which is good but not as awesome as I expected.   Still, he seemed to really improve his command the last 2 weeks of the season.    I hate to trade guys and see them blossom with other teams.   I'd trade him in the right deal but I'm happy to keep him as well.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, what was your deciding factor to basically say, you would take Hall over Mayo?

Im surprised that you ranked them this way (not saying it’s wrong) based off of how you talk about each player.

It was very close for me and honestly, like I've said previously, 4-9 are pretty interchangeable.

The deciding factor for me was the risk factor involved. With Mayo, we still haven't seen him have that great success at AA or higher yet. We have however seen what Hall looks like against major league hitters (SSS of course) and we have data on his pitches in statcast. I actually think his stuff is a tick better than what we saw late in the year, but even with what he had, once he settled in he pretty much dominated major league hitters in a relief role.

I do think he's going to end up a dominate high leverage reliever, perhaps similar to Josh Hader, but I don't want to discount the fact that they may still want to see if a full year removed from his injury that he can still start. 

The pitches are there, but I just think the makeup, consistency, and command make him a better fit for the pen. 

There's a lot of value in a high leverage "unhittable" reliever, and I think that's what he's going to be when it all said and done.

I love Mayo's upside offensively and outside of Henderson and Holliday, no one has a higher ceiling as a position prospect. Even if he moves to 1B, we're talking about a guy who I think is going to be 35+ homer guy at the big league level. 

The good news in all of this is this is a nice problem to have when ranking guys in this top 10. This is probably the highest ceiling and lowest floor top 10 I've ever put together,

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm really surprised he is this high. Anyone this high should not have had the second half he had, and if reliever is now his more likely future I think that should affect his ranking, significantly. If command is a factor in the grades there is no way his FB is 70. In fact, even based purely on velo it's not a 70. I'm glad Tony and the scouts still like him, but I had him at 6 and if it were me doing the rankings he'd be outside of the top 10. 

Now, he did have a pretty stellar first half, and obviously has great stuff. It seemed the bizarre decision to have him do a 1 IP warm up game after the All Star break caused a negative spiral that hopefully never happens again. I can see the bullish case to keep him in the top 10, but I don't think I would trade Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, or Norby for him. 

I rate his fastball as a 70 for two reasons. One his velocity (98-100 earlier in the year) is close to an 80 grade, but it also has above average spin. 

Check out this video i created on how well his FB works up in the zone. And until the last few outings, his velocity was not where it was earlier in he year.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-swing-and-miss-top-of-the-zone

So I understand you are down on him as a reliever, but take a look at this stuff and tell me why you are really down in him? 

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-k-s

Left-handers with this kind of stuff don't come around often. Sure, he may not end up a TOR because of the things I've already mentioned, but he's going to dominate hitters in some role and that role will be in high leverage and important. 

 

[Tony-OH]

I've added video now for all his pitches. 

He's not Tanner Scott, not even close. 

Go look at that stuff and come back and tell me why he's not still an important guy for this team in some high leverage role?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

He was pretty bad all of last year. High ceiling but he needs to get his act together as a pitcher. Can't coast on prospect status forever. Pitch better. Guy still thinks his lack of command is because he's trying to strike people out. To me that shows a lack of accountability. "I'm doing it on purpose" isn't gonna fly when you walk 2 guys ahead of a Judge bomb. 

Do you actually look at game logs or pay attention at all, because this statement is ludicrous. I mean, you can have any opinion that you like, but you sound ridiculous when you make statements that are factually untrue. 
 

Go look a six game stretch from May 26 to Jun 21, 2022 and a four start stretch from July 1st to July 17th and tell me he was bad all year? 

Look at what he did at the major league level over his last 8 appearances. 

Did he have bad outings? sure did. Does he struggle with consistency at times, sure does. But to say he was pretty bad all year is factually wrong.

 

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I rate his fastball as a 70 for two reasons. One his velocity (98-100 earlier in the year) is close to an 80 grade, but it also has above average spin. 

Check out this video i created on how well his FB works up in the zone. And until the last few outings, his velocity was not where it was earlier in he year.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-swing-and-miss-top-of-the-zone

So I understand you are down on him as a reliever, but take a look at this stuff and tell me why you are really down in him? 

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-k-s

Left-handers with this kind of stuff don't come around often. Sure, he may not end up a TOR because of the things I've already mentioned, but he's going to dominate hitters in some role and that role will be in high leverage and important. 

 

Just to be very clear, I appreciate your write ups and always respect your take. I totally get the bullish case for Hall. I happen to disagree in this case. I just look at command and actual performance and I can't have him higher than (most of) the other 4-9 guys.  That has as much to do with the progression of the other guys as much as being down on Hall. And no doubt he has plus plus stuff and has looked electric at times. However, command matters a lot to me, and he just hasn't had consistent results since the lowest levels. I expect more of our #4. (By the way, I do really like his changeup, I think it may be equal to or better than his slider when you combine it with his FB). 

[baltimoriole]

I really only got to see DL Hall during his first start against Tampa and in a relief outing against the Red Sox, which were major kill joys for me.  I got strange Dylan Bundy vibes from Hall.  For years, while they were both in the minors, I read their stuff was overwhelming and they sit in the in the high 90's.  However, when Bundy came up his velocity seemed a tick lower than expected.  Same thing seemed to be the case with Hall.  During the game against the Rays, I felt his fast ball was sitting in the 92-94 range, albeit he did touch high 90's.  Analytics may say otherwise, but my memory is he wasn't throwing lasers like Shane McClanahan was, who was routinely throwing 99.  Small sample size for sure, but one of those pitchers looked like they had the stuff of a future TOR pitcher, and another didn't. 

Also, he had that blistering hot streak in July at AAA, but besides that some of his AAA numbers last season were scary at times.  Hopefully he figures it out because the O's need him to reach these lofty projections more than many of the other top-10 players, but I have doubts.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, baltimoriole said:

I really only got to see DL Hall during his first start against Tampa and in a relief outing against the Red Sox, which were major kill joys for me.  I got strange Dylan Bundy vibes from Hall.  For years, while they were both in the minors, I read their stuff was overwhelming and they sit in the in the high 90's.  However, when Bundy came up his velocity seemed a tick lower than expected.  Same thing seemed to be the case with Hall.  During the game against the Rays, I felt his fast ball was sitting in the 92-94 range, albeit he did touch high 90's.  Analytics may say otherwise, but my memory is he wasn't throwing lasers like Shane McClanahan was, who was routinely throwing 99.  Small sample size for sure, but one of those pitchers looked like they had the stuff of a future TOR pitcher, and another didn't. 

Also, he had that blistering hot streak in July at AAA, but besides that some of his AAA numbers last season were scary at times.  Hopefully he figures it out because the O's need him to reach these lofty projections more than many of the other top-10 players, but I have doubts.

When Hall was strangely promoted for that spot start, he was not pitching all that well in AAA and looked like he was going through a "dead arm" period. 

During that first start, he averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball but did throw one as low as 93.3. All of his stuff was not very good in that start and below his average when he returedn in a relief role. Her's that start.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/13/2022&gamePk=661865&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown#661865

Go back and look at a few of the videos I just posted and you will see the life on his fastball that averaged 96.4 on the year. BTW, in his only Bowie start of the year, he says 97-98 and hit 100 a few times.

He's not Dylan Bundy who never threw as hard as he did in high school when he may have been "enhanced". Bundy's velocity fell each year he was in the minors.

I think a few of you have given up on Hall way too early.

[Jim'sKid26]

Just to be clear, his likely outcome is a power arm at the back of the bullpen.

His ceiling is a ToR SP. He's 23 and he has flashed stuff that is unhittable. He has sniffed the MLB in 2022 and will be on the O's staff to begin the year in 2023 in all likelihood. Oh, was it mentioned that he's lefthanded.

This kid has electric stuff from the left side. Those video clips Tony provided are very impressive. If an even marginally reasonable comp for Hall is Josh Hader, #4 seems completely reasonable to me. 

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When Hall was strangely promoted for that spot start, he was not pitching all that well in AAA and looked like he was going through a "dead arm" period. 

During that first start, he averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball but did throw one as low as 93.3. All of his stuff was not very good in that start and below his average when he returedn in a relief role. Her's that start.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/13/2022&gamePk=661865&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown#661865

Go back and look at a few of the videos I just posted and you will see the life on his fastball that averaged 96.4 on the year. BTW, in his only Bowie start of the year, he says 97-98 and hit 100 a few times.

He's not Dylan Bundy who never threw as hard as he did in high school when he may have been "enhanced". Bundy's velocity fell each year he was in the minors.

I think a few of you have given up on Hall way too early.

Just be clear, I am not giving up by any means. I just think we have an outstanding top 9 and there are other guys I personally value higher. I am still hopeful for a bright future.

 

[Sports Guy]

I think everyone tends to forget how few innings he had thrown as a professional.

[wildcard]

To me it is not close to the time to give up on Hall as a starter.  

2020   age 21  Didn't pitch in a professional game.

2021   age 22  Made 7 starts  and 31 IP at AA.  Down with an injury after that.

2022  age 23  One start at AA,  So he basically skip AA and was promoted to AAA.   He started 18 games at AAA but with limited pitch counts he was only allowed to pitch 5 innings 5 times.

This guy has not been allowed to pitch a normal season since he was 20.  He needs to go to AAA.  Start and  be allowed to work through his control issues.   Give Hall a chance to just start and pitch.   See how long its takes for him to find his control.

2023  He will  be only 24 for most of the season.

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by wildcard

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

It was very close for me and honestly, like I've said previously, 4-9 are pretty interchangeable.

 

Given that 4-9 are fairly exchangeable, and people have our 4 and 6 guys in Top 100, if you removed Gunnar/GRod/Holliday, where would this farm rank?  Is it still at top 5-10 system in baseball?

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Given that 4-9 are fairly exchangeable, and people have our 4 and 6 guys in Top 100, if you removed Gunnar/GRod/Holliday, where would this farm rank?  Is it still at top 5-10 system in baseball?

I don't follow the other organizations closely enough to know how to rank the system compared to others, but those three are the impact guys in the system. Now, Mayo and Basallo are potential impact guys due to their ceilings, but the strength would be in the amount of 50 level players in that 4-9 range.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I've added video now for all his pitches. 

He's not Tanner Scott, not even close. 

Go look at that stuff and come back and tell me why he's not still an important guy for this team in some high leverage role?

If he can throw enough strikes, he’ll be very tough to hit, in any role.   I guess he sort of has a Tanner Scott floor if he never gains any consistency, but he’s got a better repertoire than Scott.