How likely are the O's to pursue Bassitt?

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, bpilktree said:

I think with the attachment of the pick Bassitt will not be on are list unless they fail on other guys who don't cost a pick.   I could see making run at deGrom or even Rondon and draft pick attached but I see to many guys at the same level as Bassitt that it pushes him below the other guys.  Then add in age and health and he would be a last option for me.  

Which guys are similar to Bassitt? After Verlander/Kershaw, it is a significant step down from Bassitt/Eovaldi to Manaea/Kluber/Taijuan/Syndergaard. Keep in mind also, we aren't picking as high as we used to, and we don't have an urgent need to stock our system. I can't see a future Anthony Servideo type player stopping us from making a move if there is a P we really like. IMO it will be more about price and other bidders than the draft pick.  

[Jim'sKid26]

Bassitt seems like a poor fit for the O's.

From Fangraphs:

" Bassitt collects outs via weak contact, not whiffs. His ability to do so is genuine, but over the course of his career, it has been aided by two phenomenal environments: the cavernous Oakland Coliseum and Citi Field. For reasons not yet known (but often speculated about), the latter suppresses exit velocity better than any other big-league park. In this context, Bassitt’s career home/away ERA split of 2.68/4.26 makes sense – and merits pause. Moreover – and this is purely speculative – his delicate six-pitch mix could discourage or intrigue potential suitors, depending on how confident they are in their pitching development. The best possible outcome for Bassitt, then, seems like a stint with a progressive organization based in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. That doesn’t mean he can’t thrive in, say, Yankee pinstripes. But if Bassitt is looking to maximize a one-time opportunity, his winning ticket likely lies elsewhere. "

Proposed contract is 3/$51M. He's 34 yo. 

[oriole]

I think anyone with draft pick compensation attached will likely be passed on. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think anyone with draft pick compensation attached will likely be passed on. 

If you aren't willing to draft pitchers and you want decent pitchers you are going to have to spend either prospect or draft pick capital. 

The number of impact free agent pitchers on the market without compensation attached is pretty slim.

[Yardball85]

20 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think anyone with draft pick compensation attached will likely be passed on. 

Not saying you're wrong, but I think that is a very poor and short-sighted approach if that's what the Orioles do. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

We will not know which pick that MLB assigns to the O's until sometime before the draft.  MLB uses a formula that is a combination of  team revenue, win percentage and market position.  I have not been able to find the formula so I don't believe its public.

Unless this was changed in the new CBA, our competitive balance pick will be a pick before the third round, not the second.  From Rule 4(k)(2)(D) of the 2021 edition of Major League Rules:

“Beginning with the 2018 First-Year Player Draft and continuing thereafter, any eligible Club that received a selection in Competitive Balance Round A in the immediately preceding First-Year Player Draft shall receive a selection in Competitive Balance Round B; and any eligible Club that received a selection in Competitive Balance Round B in the immediately preceding First-Year Player Draft shall receive a selection in Competitive Balance Round A. Clubs will continue to alternate from year-to-year between Competitive Balance Rounds A and B, provided they remain eligible to receive a Competitive Balance Selection.”

Also, the formula for ranking the teams within Round A and B is public, but it depends in part on each team’s Net Defined Local Revenue from the prior year, and that certainly isn’t public.  

Edited November 17, 2022 by Frobby

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, tabletop said:

Wacha was good last year but he threw 50 innings less than Bassitt did. From 2019-2021 Wacha was a below average pitcher while Bassitt was an above average pitcher.

You repeated what I said, my question is: Is Bassitt and his extra 30 innings worth the difference in contract, 30 innings per season, and your supplement round B pick. I’d say it’s doubtful 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You repeated what I said, my question is: Is Bassitt and his extra 30 innings worth the difference in contract, 30 innings per season, and your supplement round B pick. I’d say it’s doubtful 

 

 

Might.

Could be no difference at all, could be a spot in the playoffs.

[oriole]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you aren't willing to draft pitchers and you want decent pitchers you are going to have to spend either prospect or draft pick capital. 

The number of impact free agent pitchers on the market without compensation attached is pretty slim.

The only reason I say that is that Elias seems to put a lot of value on a consistent pipeline of talent, which is usually orchestrated from good drafts strung together. 
 

You could say that a signing of someone like Bassitt makes someone like Watkins or Voth expendable so then you may be able to trade one of those guys for a similarly valued player as whatever you’d get with your 3rd draft choice. I don’t have a lot of confidence that that’s the case though. I think Elias will probably work hard to keep all his draft picks

[oriole]

3 hours ago, Yardball85 said:

Not saying you're wrong, but I think that is a very poor and short-sighted approach if that's what the Orioles do. 

Short sighted to put a lot of focus on the long term? It’s mostly subjective but I don’t know if short sighted is the right term. If it’s give up draft picks or sign no one, then I’d bet they’ll give up the draft picks. But as long as there are other options on the table, I see Elias going that route. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

The only reason I say that is that Elias seems to put a lot of value on a consistent pipeline of talent, which is usually orchestrated from good drafts strung together. 
 

You could say that a signing of someone like Bassitt makes someone like Watkins or Voth expendable so then you may be able to trade one of those guys for a similarly valued player as whatever you’d get with your 3rd draft choice. I don’t have a lot of confidence that that’s the case though. I think Elias will probably work hard to keep all his draft picks

Is there much of a difference between giving up a draft pick to sign a pitcher and trading a player to acquire a pitcher?

You have to acquire pitching in some fashion and Elias doesn't seem to want to draft it.

 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Unless this was changed in the new CBA, our competitive balance pick will be a pick before the third round, not the second.  

 

I said after the 2nd rounder.  You said before the 3rd round.  Is there really a difference?

[oriole]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is there much of a difference between giving up a draft pick to sign a pitcher and trading a player to acquire a pitcher?

You have to acquire pitching in some fashion and Elias doesn't seem to want to draft it.

 

Nope, not much of a difference at all. Doesn’t mean I expect Elias to give up draft picks unless one with draft pick compensation falls in value enough for him to justify it. I don’t know what that threshold is, nor do I think I’m savvy enough to pretend to know. Just speculating that he is hesitant to risk limiting his draft options.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

Nope, not much of a difference at all. Doesn’t mean I expect Elias to give up draft picks unless one with draft pick compensation falls in value enough for him to justify it. I don’t know what that threshold is, nor do I think I’m savvy enough to pretend to know. Just speculating that he is hesitant to risk limiting his draft options.

I'm also not expecting him to sign anyone with a QO but I think it will be the $ and years that will be the limiting factor.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Nope, not much of a difference at all. Doesn’t mean I expect Elias to give up draft picks unless one with draft pick compensation falls in value enough for him to justify it. I don’t know what that threshold is, nor do I think I’m savvy enough to pretend to know. Just speculating that he is hesitant to risk limiting his draft options.

He can always pick up a pick or two when he trades Urias/Mateo/Hays