BA/Meoli’s projected 2026 lineup and rotation

[RZNJ]

Interesting that with Maverick Handley in the system, they listed Silas Ardoin as the top defensive catcher in the system.   Seems like a dis on Handley or maybe he was overlooked or maybe Ardoin is really that good.

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Interesting that with Maverick Handley in the system, they listed Silas Ardoin as the top defensive catcher in the system.   Seems like a dis on Handley or maybe he was overlooked or maybe Ardoin is really that good.

From what I’ve heard Ardoin is that good.  I think he is a big sleeper in system.  Some scouts think he has potential to improve his bat significantly.  His D skills are supposed to be close to MLB ready.  

Edited November 22, 2022 by emmett16

[RZNJ]

Henderson gets a 70 grade on power.

Stowers gets a 65.

Mayo gets a 60.

 

I'm sure Tony might disagree with that.   I'd say Mayo's pull power is a 70 (hell, maybe an 80).   Haven't seen much in the way of CF or RF but pure power is way up there.

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, emmett16 said:

From what I’ve heard Ardoin is that good.  I think he is a big sleeper in system.  Some scouts think he has potential improve his bat significantly.  His D skills are supposed to be close to MLB ready.  

His offensive debut reminds me of Joey Ortiz's debut at rookie ball in Aberdeen.   No power whatsoever.    If anyone can help Ardoin tap into some power, it should be the O's.    Should be interesting to keep an eye on next season.

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not sure where he’s seeing “above average speed.”   Stowers was 43rd percentile at 27.0 ft/sec.   Maybe he’ll show slightly better in a larger sample.  

It always looks to me that Stowers is playing at like 80%.   Are those speed numbers averages or are their top recorded speed?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Henderson gets a 70 grade on power.

Stowers gets a 65.

Mayo gets a 60.

 

I'm sure Tony might disagree with that.   I'd say Mayo's pull power is a 70 (hell, maybe an 80).   Haven't seen much in the way of CF or RF but pure power is way up there.

 

I assume Meoli is not breaking down current vs. future power, or raw vs. game power?  I could see the case if you’re talking about current game power.  Otherwise, no.

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously I think Tony spends more time on his list than any other credible source, but I do respect Meoli as someone who pays a lot of attention to our MiL system.   It’s interesting that he’s much higher on Cowser and lower on Mayo.  I’m not sure why Stowers is on there, since he has more than 45 days of service.   

I like Meoli's perspective too.  It looks like he's focused on who he thinks are the top 'in-house' options.  He's clearly not thinking about trades or FA signings.  That opens a multiverse of Loki's (if you know, you know).

[jamalshw]

There's obviously much that will change before 2026 to make most of this meaningless, but my biggest takeaway from the projected roster is just how much we do need to go out and get a pitcher this offseason. I look at the lineup and think it's pretty solid (though I think Cowser slides over to a corner spot and certainly some guys may not pan out). But for the rotation, it's really banking on G-Rod to be an ace, Hall to be a starter, Means to comeback from TJS and be what he was before his injury, Kremer's 2022 to be for real (or at least close to it), and Bradish to be more of the version we saw in the second half rather than the first half. While each of those things could happen, I'm incredibly skeptical that all 5 will. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I assume Meoli is not breaking down current vs. future power, or raw vs. game power?  I could see the case if you’re talking about current game power.  Otherwise, no.

First of all, when Melewski used to do this and now Meoli, I don't think they do it without some input from the BA staff or using information provided to them by the BA staff.    Do I think those are Meoli's personal grades on our players?  No.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

First of all, when Melewski used to do this and now Meoli, I don't think they do it without some input from the BA staff or using information provided to them by the BA staff.    Do I think those are Meoli's personal grades on our players?  No.

From Meoli’s blog today:

“Every year, the reporting and writing of the Baseball America top prospect rankings for the Orioles system consumes a month of my life and enriches me as much as it challenges me. It’s an opportunity to touch base with contacts inside and outside the organization, expand my knowledge base about the players I cover, and provide as much of that insight as possible to readers.”

I’m sure he gets input from others at BA, but I do believe that at the end of the day it’s his list.   

[NCRaven]

Since you can't really project trades or free agent signings, you have to go by who is in the system now.  Based on that, his projection is as likely as any unless you think that Mountcastle will be gone and Mayo will take over at first base.  I'm a RM fan, but I think that Mayo is a younger, probably better version of Mountcastle, so I'd be okay with that.  I'm not at all surprised that he has Hays, Santander, and even Ortiz (given Holliday's presence) off the roster by 2026.  I would replace Mullins with Kjerstad by then.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

From Meoli’s blog today:

“Every year, the reporting and writing of the Baseball America top prospect rankings for the Orioles system consumes a month of my life and enriches me as much as it challenges me. It’s an opportunity to touch base with contacts inside and outside the organization, expand my knowledge base about the players I cover, and provide as much of that insight as possible to readers.”

I’m sure he gets input from others at BA, but I do believe that at the end of the day it’s his list.   

Hell of a coincidence that his list will line up perfectly with BA's top 100.   Every player you see in his top ten will be in the same exact order when BA comes out with their top 100.

[Three Run Homer]

So I guess Norby is a really good prospect who will get traded for some set up relief pitchers?  

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hell of a coincidence that his list will line up perfectly with BA's top 100.   Every player you see in his top ten will be in the same exact order when BA comes out with their top 100.

We’ll see.  Maybe.  The top 3 are pretty obvious.  
Meoli has published a series of articles reflecting on the past BA lists in which he was invoked.  Here’s how he introduced the series:

“I’ve had it in my mind to go through past editions of the Baseball America top-30 prospect lists that I put together for the publication over the years as an exercise in self-flagellation, self-reflection, and general analysis on the processes that have evolved over the years and are leading to this year’s rankings.

“The only problem was I couldn’t figure out when I started to write them. My first year on the Orioles beat was in 2016, and in my mind I did the rankings that year, too. Turns out I did not! But I began after the 2017 season, a year where Austin Hays was a clear-cut No. 1, and many of the names that came to define the beginning of the Orioles rebuild were making their mark.

“There were some good calls, there were some bad calls, there were a lot of players I smiled at the thought of in both nostalgic and derisive ways. There was a lot in there.”

Does that sound like a guy who merely wrote up whatever the BA staff wanted him to say?   It doesn’t to me.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

We’ll see.  Maybe.  The top 3 are pretty obvious.  
Meoli has published a series of articles reflecting on the past BA lists in which he was invoked.  Here’s how he introduced the series:

“I’ve had it in my mind to go through past editions of the Baseball America top-30 prospect lists that I put together for the publication over the years as an exercise in self-flagellation, self-reflection, and general analysis on the processes that have evolved over the years and are leading to this year’s rankings.

“The only problem was I couldn’t figure out when I started to write them. My first year on the Orioles beat was in 2016, and in my mind I did the rankings that year, too. Turns out I did not! But I began after the 2017 season, a year where Austin Hays was a clear-cut No. 1, and many of the names that came to define the beginning of the Orioles rebuild were making their mark.

“There were some good calls, there were some bad calls, there were a lot of players I smiled at the thought of in both nostalgic and derisive ways. There was a lot in there.”

Does that sound like a guy who merely wrote up whatever the BA staff wanted him to say?   It doesn’t to me.

It does not although I didn't say they told him what to write.   I suggested that the rankings might be them and the writeups might be his.   I really don't know the ins and outs of BA and how they put their lists together.   I do know that when you see a BA top 100 list that it aligns perfectly with all of the top tens for each team.    When the BA top 100 comes out in whenever, I guarantee you that Cowser will be ahead of Hall just like on this list.   Maybe the BA team reporters factor more into the rankings than I previously thought.    I guess I could email the editor and maybe get a clearer picture but I probably won't.   lol