The warning signs are there for the reading

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, owknows said:

I'm not sure they have to to get what they need.

It'll be fun to see. (although I suspect I'm more big-contract averse than even the Oriole front office is)

It does seem that way! lol

BTW, I do think the Orioles are on the cusp of being able to produce their lineup internally. I just don't see the starting pitching depth or that TOR (Grayson can be that but the innings limit means not this year).

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does seem that way! lol

BTW, I do think the Orioles are on the cusp of being able to produce their lineup internally. I just don't see the starting pitching depth or that TOR (Grayson can be that but the innings limit means not this year).

 

Let’s face it, getting beyond GRod and hopefully Hall, there really isn’t anyone in the system that you can, as of today, you feel has a chance to be an impact starter. They absolutely need to add starting pitching.

[Redskins Rick]

The warning flags are out there, for sure.

We all hoped to never relive the 14 years of hell when the team sucked badly.

We thought we were heading that way to repeating history, when they finally turned things around last year, and played better than we had hoped for.

Now we have this, which leaves this fan, in disbelief.

They want to make lots and lots of money off the team, and thats their main goal. 

Im too old for this crap.

Sorry for the rantings.

 

[owknows]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does seem that way! lol

BTW, I do think the Orioles are on the cusp of being able to produce their lineup internally. I just don't see the starting pitching depth or that TOR (Grayson can be that but the innings limit means not this year).

 

We don't disagree regarding starting pitching... I just see a trade as the more effective means of addressing the concern.

[interloper]

Much as I hate to admit it, Roch tried to warn us from the start.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s face it, getting beyond GRod and hopefully Hall, there really isn’t anyone in the system that you can, as of today, you feel has a chance to be an impact starter. They absolutely need to add starting pitching.

That's really where I'm at. There's Povich after those three, but he's not someone you can count on yet and we both agree with Hall has the talent, but most likely ends up in the pen as a weapon.

That leaves the team with Grayson Rodriguez as the guy that is ready and he's going to be on an innings limit.

In my mind, Bassitt made a lot of sense for this team. Now, there are still guys out there but Rodon is a pipedream and I'm starting to think they will focusing on trades in January.

Personally I'd rather give up the draft pick for a fairly sure thing than give up talent THIS year. I don't think the Orioles are going to be true World Series contenders next year but they certainly are playoff contenders or they SHOULD be legitimate playoff contenders. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

That's really where I'm at. There's Povich after those three, but he's not someone you can count on yet and we both agree with Hall has the talent, but most likely ends up in the pen as a weapon.

That leaves the team with Grayson Rodriguez as the guy that is ready and he's going to be on an innings limit.

In my mind, Bassitt made a lot of sense for this team. Now, there are still guys out there but Rodon is a pipedream and I'm starting to think they will focusing on trades in January.

Personally I'd rather give up the draft pick for a fairly sure thing than give up talent THIS year. I don't think the Orioles are going to be true World Series contenders next year but they certainly are playoff contenders or they SHOULD be legitimate playoff contenders. 

Unless we can obtain a very solid starting pitcher without having to give up our better MiL talent, the idea that losing the pick is more hurtful than dealing a guy like Westburg is just wrong. 
 

If they deem that trading for a starter is better but don’t tell me it’s because of a draft pick loss

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Much as I hate to admit it, Roch tried to warn us from the start.

He has certainly been trying to be more realistic on what the organization is able to do when it comes to contracts.

Personally, once I heard Elias talking back his "taking off" comment I knew something had changed. 

If I had to guess, and it's purely a guess based off the facts that we publicly know, I think he got his budget for next year and it was much lower than he expected. I also don't see the Orioles spending what it takes to get or even keep talent while the Angelos family owns the team.

Until Peter passes, the team won't be sold and this franchise and it fans will be stuck in low budget mode.

[HakunaSakata]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s face it, getting beyond GRod and hopefully Hall, there really isn’t anyone in the system that you can, as of today, you feel has a chance to be an impact starter. They absolutely need to add starting pitching.

Exactly. If we had taken a more balanced approach to rebuilding our farm system then I would be absolutely fine with letting the younger pitchers learn and improve on the fly. But we didn't and now have an abundance of bats and very few major league ready pitching prospects. So we either have to use free agency to bridge the gap or trade some of our prospects for pitching. I would prefer to go the free agency route so we don't have a dip into our prospects. Prospects are a bit of a numbers game, because they don't pan out. And for those saying the marketing is too expensive we literally haven't spent a dime on a significant free agent in six years. I don't think it's an unfair expectation for us to have been interested in the last remaining "good" pitcher for 3 years / $63 million. It would have been a smart move and it would have sent an important message to the fan base that the front office was committed to building on the momentum that started last season.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The warning flags are out there, for sure.

We all hoped to never relive the 14 years of hell when the team sucked badly.

We thought we were heading that way to repeating history, when they finally turned things around last year, and played better than we had hoped for.

Now we have this, which leaves this fan, in disbelief.

They want to make lots and lots of money off the team, and thats their main goal. 

Im too old for this crap.

Sorry for the rantings.

 

Drama queen is the first thing that came to my mind.  They broke .500 last year.  They have some great young players beginning their careers and a bunch more on the way.  Get a grip.

[RZNJ]

Rodriguez and Hall.  Traded for Pinto, Bradish, Povich, and McDermott.   Wells in the rule 5.   Doesn’t matter if you draft them or another team does.  They haven’t ignored pitching.  

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Unless we can obtain a very solid starting pitcher without having to give up our better MiL talent, the idea that losing the pick is more hurtful than dealing a guy like Westburg is just wrong. 
 

If they deem that trading for a starter is better but don’t tell me it’s because of a draft pick loss

We don't have the depth/trade pieces at the major league level to make that happen. Mullins is the only player who might command a high end starting pitcher, but we don't have a player to replace him and there isn't a remaining free agent who fits that bill either. So, at best, we would be breaking even (i.e., upgrading pitching, but downgrading offense) and not really improving. If we go the trade route, the only way to truly improve this season's team would be trade MiL talent, which I don't want to do either. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He has certainly been trying to be more realistic on what the organization is able to do when it comes to contracts.

Personally, once I heard Elias talking back his "taking off" comment I knew something had changed. 

If I had to guess, and it's purely a guess based off the facts that we publicly know, I think he got his budget for next year and it was much lower than he expected. I also don't see the Orioles spending what it takes to get or even keep talent while the Angelos family owns the team.

Until Peter passes, the team won't be sold and this franchise and it fans will be stuck in low budget mode.

If this is true (and I have absolutely no reason to believe that it is not) this is very depressing and deflating.

My ONLY hope now is that we can get the franchise into better hands, who are more committed to winning.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, JR Oriole said:

If Judge leads the Yankees to a World Series championship, that will probably be well worth it to them regardless of the WAR he puts up in the process.  For them, it is all about winning championships and their 1 title in 22 seasons just isn't going to cut it.  So while I would be very surprised to see him put up 45 WAR over the life of his contract, 15 WAR and a parade in early November may do the trick.  Os fans can continue to have fun with the dollars to WAR ratio calculations and the will they/won't they have buyers remorse game.  

Yeah, I think it’s an interesting calculus.  I remember the offseason when the Yankees signed Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett.   They won the WS the following season, but that was the only one they won, and all three players were pretty poor by the end of their contracts.

Sabathia - 7/$161 mm, with an opt-out.  He was worth 21.3 rWAR in the 7 years, but used his opt out for leverage that got him an extra year at $30 mm.  So, he ended up being worth 24.4 rWAR for $191 mm.   Basically market price, valued at $187.8 mm by Fangraphs.  The WS year, he was 19-8 and was worth 6.2 rWAR.   

Teixeira - 8/$180 mm.  He was worth 19.3 rWAR, almost all of which was during the first four years of the contract.  So, definitely higher than market price at nearly $9.3 mm/WAR, and Fangraphs valued him at $44.1 mm less than he was paid; but he was a key contributor to the 2009 team, with a 141 OPS+ and worth 5.3 rWAR.

Burnett 5/$82.5 mm.  Burnett was worth 4.5 rWAR in 2009 but -0.7 in 2010 and 2011 combined.  The Yankees traded him for essentially nothing in a salary dump deal in which they ate $18 mm of his remaining contract.  So, he was worth 3.8 rWAR for $67.5 mm.  Fangraphs calculates he was overpaid by $36.9 mm.

So, overall, the Yankees overpaid these three by $84.2 mm, per Fangraphs.  They did bring home the only WS title the Yankees have had since 2000 in their first year with the team, but no other Yankee team they were on made it to the WS.  Burnett really was only a contributor that first season, Tex was bad in three of his final four seasons, and Sabathia was decent but overpaid in the back part of his deal.  Worth it to win that one WS?   I don’t know, by Yankee standards.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Unless we can obtain a very solid starting pitcher without having to give up our better MiL talent, the idea that losing the pick is more hurtful than dealing a guy like Westburg is just wrong. 
 

If they deem that trading for a starter is better but don’t tell me it’s because of a draft pick loss

Especially since teams no longer lose your #1 pick.