Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Frazier is one of the softest-hitting players in baseball, with an exit velocity that tied for ninth-worst among 232 qualifiers in 2022. 

 

 

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

 

Ah that's a rough read.  Here's the crux of my (and many) argument:

Ramón Urías	29	.255	.325	.423	381	50	97	20	1	14	56	34	101	1	106	2.2
Jordan Westburg	24	.233	.310	.392	510	72	119	27	3	16	77	48	155	7	93	1.8
Adam Frazier	31	.267	.326	.363	529	68	141	25	4	6	42	41	70	8	91	1.8
Jorge Mateo	28	.234	.279	.391	448	58	105	22	6	12	49	23	132	26	83	1.7
Joey Ortiz	24	.239	.294	.363	482	63	115	21	3	11	60	34	103	4	81	1.4
Connor Norby	23	.244	.309	.410	451	64	110	18	3	17	70	38	126	8	97	1.2
Terrin Vavra	26	.245	.339	.358	265	38	65	14	2	4	37	33	64	4	94	1.0

 

So those top three other guys you're paying a combined less than 3 mil.  But you've now allocated 8 mil to the 3rd best option.  And that doesn't even include what you could get from Ortiz/Norby/Vavra.

So....the benefit where?

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I know this is your site, but laughing at my post that wasn't in response to anyone, calling anyone out, or being negative in any way isn't cool.

To answer your question, I've heard that Frazier DID try swing adjustments to get more lift in Seattle. That clearly didn't work, so my "wager" is that the O's are going to ask him to return to his former approach rather than continue trying to lift the ball. I don't think that takes magic pixie dust. It's identifying what a player does better and asking him to do more of it.

And while you're bagging on Mountcastle, maybe you should go do your in depth scouting on his batted ball data last year. His EV, Barrell % and Hard Hit % all went up. His HR/FB went down. His Slg% was down ~60 points while his xSlg% was up ~50 points.

Look at the bright side, you actually get a one point of rep for my laughing. 

You conveniently didn't answer my question. I asked specifically what magic have the Orioles done with swing changes at the major league level that makes you think they can suddenly make Frazier a better hitter? I'll wait.

As for Mountcastle, I'm very aware of Mountcastle's expected stats, his barrel percentages and EV. I'm also aware of his long cold streaks and his almost other-wordly inability to stop swinging at pitches out of the strikezone and his poor BB% and OBP. 

I would imagine that Mountcastle and Hays would be very different hitters had they come up through the systems learning about swing decisions, but I'm starting to believe it's not a skill that can be easily instituted once players have reached the major leagues.

That brings me back to Frazier. Just give me a few examples how the Orioles have made some swing changes to a major league hitter and made him better.

Hmm, Odor? Nope. Aguilar? Nope. Franco, nope. Iglesias? Well he amazingly must've forgot when he left so I'm just going to say he got on a heater over a short season vs him making swing changes.

Look, if you can convince me the Orioles have some magic swing change source then great, that's see if it works on a 31 year old guy with EVs like Chirinos.

At the end of the day, if you want to point towards successful changes by the Orioles coaching staff, look at Holt and the pitchers because Kremer and Bradish were rebuilt by him. 

Unless I'm missing something, I haven't seen the same at the major league level with established major league players.

 

[tabletop]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone post this?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

That’s a pretty good summary on the move IMO.

In sum, this is the right player at the right price for precisely the wrong team. To paraphrase Nietzsche, if you stare at the Pirates, the Pirates stare back at you. Someone should inform the Orioles that they are actually wild-card contenders.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Ah that's a rough read.  Here's the crux of my (and many) argument:

Ramón Urías	29	.255	.325	.423	381	50	97	20	1	14	56	34	101	1	106	2.2
Jordan Westburg	24	.233	.310	.392	510	72	119	27	3	16	77	48	155	7	93	1.8
Adam Frazier	31	.267	.326	.363	529	68	141	25	4	6	42	41	70	8	91	1.8
Jorge Mateo	28	.234	.279	.391	448	58	105	22	6	12	49	23	132	26	83	1.7
Joey Ortiz	24	.239	.294	.363	482	63	115	21	3	11	60	34	103	4	81	1.4
Connor Norby	23	.244	.309	.410	451	64	110	18	3	17	70	38	126	8	97	1.2
Terrin Vavra	26	.245	.339	.358	265	38	65	14	2	4	37	33	64	4	94	1.0

 

So those top three other guys you're paying a combined less than 3 mil.  But you've now allocated 8 mil to the 3rd best option.  And that doesn't even include what you could get from Ortiz/Norby/Vavra.

So....the benefit where?

He bats left handed.

That's evidently super important.

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He bats left handed.

That's evidently super important.

And he's projected to get on base .001 more than the guy hes likely moving to the bench.

[eddie83]

18 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

What indication have you received that 2023 is any different than 2022 with respect to payroll and asset allocation?

I give up. They played Odor on a team in a year where they dealt assets to get prospects in August. Are they going to do that again? They also played Odor in front of Vavra, not Bobby Grich. 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

Judging by the length of this thread, this is the most controversial free agent second baseman signed by the Os since Roberto Alomar.  Who says Os off-seasons aren’t exciting?

The only thing crazy is that there actually is a debate on this signing. 

I don't think people understand that we are getting into a role as a GM that Elias and his team has never done. 

After he traded away two players at the trading deadline (right thing to do) last year, his team out performed most expectations and kept in the wildcard hunt behind the improvements in the starting rotation led by Kremer and Bradish. What did he do to give it a shot, he signed a washed up recently released Aguilar and benched his rookie who had great numbers against lefties in the minors despite being a left-handed hitter.

So not only did Aguilar unsurprisingly fail to help, he wasn't even able to evaluate Stowers as a full-time hitter against both righties and lefties. So he failed to make the team better, and he failed to evaluate players at the major league level. 

Now we have him overpaying for a player that I can't imagine had much of a market after last season and seemingly disregarded his current metrics with bat and running speeds. just like he overlooked Aguilar's declining metrics and his lack of success against righties or lefties prior to being released by the Marlins.

To me, this is concerning. 

[Yardball85]

7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I give up. They played Odor on a team in a year where they dealt assets to get prospects in August. Are they going to do that again? They also played Odor in front of Vavra, not Bobby Grich. 

K.  I still have no idea why you think the Orioles would make someone the third highest paid player on the team to not play him (in any event he has been told he is here to play every day).Agree to disagree, I'm sure we'll meet again in another thread (and maybe we'll agree?)

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I give up. They played Odor on a team in a year where they dealt assets to get prospects in August. Are they going to do that again? They also played Odor in front of Vavra, not Bobby Grich. 

For what it’s worth, I’m with you and the rest of the people trying to be optimistic about next season. Everyone else seems convinced we are going to punt next season, which is just flat out ridiculous. I’m just glad I wasn’t here when we were actually punting seasons because I don’t think I could have taken that much negativity.

I really don’t see how the majority of people here can be so negative after the season we just had. If Frazier is a slight upgrade from Odor, and Gibson is a slight upgrade from Lyles, you add in a full year of Adley and Gunnar, plus whatever other contributions we get from the upcoming prospects, it looks like we are at least a little better than last year with a little more depth. Obviously we’d all love to see a big free agent signing, but it seems like that’s not going to be the way most of this team is going to be built, and I’m fine with that. After all the money we gave away on bad contracts when we were more active in free agency, I would think going with a new strategy would be a breath of fresh air. 

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only thing crazy is that there actually is a debate on this signing. 

 

To the extent that there is any debate, it seems to me it's just either you think this is completely indefensible or you think it's pretty lame but not the end of the world.

I don't really see anyone saying they love this deal. 

[Slight Upward Arc]

23 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I give up. They played Odor on a team in a year where they dealt assets to get prospects in August. Are they going to do that again? They also played Odor in front of Vavra, not Bobby Grich. 

They’ll be sellers again at the deadline I’d bet. Especially if they aren’t in a playoff spot. We’ll get a bunch of geek talk over how this sets us up great for 2032 and making the playoffs wasn’t a probability. You assume his outlook has changed. I don’t think it has. He’d be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022. 

[Aristotelian]

I'm not a fan of this deal, but regardless of what you think the money should be the least of the concerns. $8M is not a lot, it's one year, and Frazier was worth 1 WAR last year even in a down year. He put up .779/114 OPS+/3.1 WAR as recently as a year ago. If you believe he can produce to his career norms he is easily worth $8M. Even if it is a slight overpay, so what? There is no long term or short term negative consequence other than the money itself.

What I don't like about this deal is that I'd rather have guaranteed opportunities for younger players in our system. Frazier could have been signed for $700k and it would still be a weird move IMO. 

[eddie83]

51 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

K.  I still have no idea why you think the Orioles would make someone the third highest paid player on the team to not play him (in any event he has been told he is here to play every day).Agree to disagree, I'm sure we'll meet again in another thread (and maybe we'll agree?)

I never said they would not play him.  I said if he isn’t producing in the middle of the year they won’t keep running him out there like they did with Odor. That’s it.  
 

I enjoy baseball conversation and don’t mind anyone agreeing or disagreeing. It’s all good to me. 

[eddie83]

35 minutes ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

They’ll be sellers again at the deadline I’d bet. Especially if they aren’t in a playoff spot. We’ll get a bunch of geek talk over how this sets us up great for 2032 and making the playoffs wasn’t a probability. You assume his outlook has changed. I don’t think it has. He’d be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022. 

Well they should be sellers if they are out of it. 
 

It would be the Gibson, Frazier types who they would try to deal.