Is the Orioles evaluation process for bounce back players "sophisticated"?

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

 I think the O’s are sophisticated enough to make better judgments than you and I about who is likely to bounce back.  That doesn’t mean they’ll always be correct.  

Their "sophistication" came up with Odor all year last year and Aguilar down the stretch. In the past they tried Pat Valaika, Kelvin Gutiérrez, and Maikel Franco as bounceback guys, so I think it's fair at this point to question their "sophistication" of judging bounce back candidates at the major league level. 

Now maybe Frazier will be different. Heck, we all hope he is because none of us want him to fail, but I think the argument that the Orioles know more than us may be true, but we have some results that tell us that they're missing more than hitting in this area. 

[Tony-OH]

I decided to lock the other thread on Frazier and take a conversation out that's worth discussing. 

Frobby feels the Orioles evaluation process is sophisticated enough to give them the benefit of the doubt when they sign bounce back guys like Frazier. 

While I would have agreed a few years ago, or at least I would have hoped, I'm starting to see a trend here that suggests that haven't really hit on too many bounce back guys as positions players.

I guess you could count Iglesias as a hit a few years ago, but the last few years the Orioles have not exactly hit or fixed anyone who was an established major leaguer who was failing.

 

[SurhoffFTW]

Is 

[Explosivo]

Comparing Frazier to those guys is laughable. We don't spend 8 million on a hunch. They see something and he has proven that in previous years. Those guys are not even close. Pretty silly man, but this is your forum and I'm happy that we have this forum to voice our fandom. I just don't get why people are down on this team given all we have seen.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Explosivo said:

Comparing Frazier to those guys is laughable. We don't spend 8 million on a hunch. They see something and he has proven that in previous years. Those guys are not even close. Pretty silly man, but this is your forum and I'm happy that we have this forum to voice our fandom. I just don't get why people are down on this team given all we have seen.

First off, try some respect ok? I have no interested in engaging with anyone who acts the way you do when someone brings up a valid point. 

This is a discussion board and I brought up a valid point to discuss the Orioles evaluation process. 

You want to call my post laughable and silly, you picked the wrong place to do that. See ya.

[jrobb21613]

Mateo who I wouldn’t classify as a bounce back guy but clearly someone the O’s saw something in and have gotten pretty good value in return. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by jrobb21613

[RZNJ]

Was Aguilar a bounceback candidate?  They got him midseason for nothing.  There was nothing sophisticated about that. They took a shot.  Didn't work.  Odor was a warm body that hit 30 homers recently.  

I'd hope there's a little more than taking a shot when you spend 8M on a player.   I think it's apples and oranges when comparing Odor and Aguilar to Frazier.  I don't know why they are confident about Frazier. I hope they have good reasons.  But, I don't think the same confidence and reasoning were applied to Odor and Aguilar. 

[nvpacchi]

Jorge Lopez, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, Austin Voth, and Cionel Perez suggest that the O's have some pulse on players they can pick up off the scrap heap.  Not everyone wire pickup succeeds, but the amount of WAR that was accumulated by these guys for next to nothing suggests that the scouting/analytics combo of finding these players had been successful.  Whether it will continue... 

[forphase1]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Their "sophistication" came up with Odor all year last year and Aguilar down the stretch. In the past they tried Pat Valaika, Kelvin Gutiérrez, and Maikel Franco as bounceback guys, so I think it's fair at this point to question their "sophistication" of judging bounce back candidates at the major league level. 

Now maybe Frazier will be different. Heck, we all hope he is because none of us want him to fail, but I think the argument that the Orioles know more than us may be true, but we have some results that tell us that they're missing more than hitting in this area. 

It's such a mixed bag really.  We want to point at the successes of a Mateo and Voth and the bullpen last year and act like they have a magical formula to identify waiver wire or bounceback guys who can turn things around.  But for every Voth there is an Odor or Aguilar that should have never been on the team.  I think overall they probably do better than other franchises at getting some good results from some waiver wire or guys that have been discarded by other teams, but to say they are sophisticated or that every decision they make turns into gold is far from the truth.  Sure, they have data and numbers we don't have and can hopefully identify some things they can fix.  And maybe they believe they have that in the Fraziers/Gibsons of this offseason.  I think they have had enough success to give them a slight benefit of the doubt, but they aren't so flawless that we should just accept everything they do as good decisions.  There are too many examples of reclamation projects that completely flopped. 

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

Jorge Lopez, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, Austin Voth, and Cionel Perez suggest that the O's have some pulse on players they can pick up off the scrap heap.  Not everyone wire pickup succeeds, but the amount of WAR that was accumulated by these guys for next to nothing suggests that the scouting/analytics combo of finding these players had been successful.  Whether it will continue... 

I was going to point out those guys specifically, but I don't know if they count as 'bounce back'.  They all had promise, but never put up good seasons before.  

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

Jorge Lopez, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, Austin Voth, and Cionel Perez suggest that the O's have some pulse on players they can pick up off the scrap heap.  Not everyone wire pickup succeeds, but the amount of WAR that was accumulated by these guys for next to nothing suggests that the scouting/analytics combo of finding these players had been successful.  Whether it will continue... 

Yeah, these are the players I was going to bring up.  Maybe add Bryan Baker to that list, too.

They've had some successes, they've had some failures.  But I feel much better about Elias and Sig and whatever they do compared to past regimes.

[Frobby]

I think there’s a different level of certainty and upside expected when investing $8 mm in a player, versus deals at or near the minimum like Franco, Valaika, Gutierrez and Odor.  Not to mention that the team is in a different place competitively, so the case for acquiring the player needs to be stronger than when you’re just looking for stopgaps.

Here is how I see it.  The O’s have dozens of full time scouts and analysts whose job it is to evaluate players and judge how they’ll do in the future and how they fit in with the team’s needs.   They are not going to be right every time - that’s the nature of sports.   But I can virtually guarantee that they are fully aware of all the publicly available data that we toss around and argue about, and a lot more data that we don’t have access to and probably don’t even know exists.   And they have a lot more time and resources to look at video, talk to people in the industry, etc.  So yes, I think their ability to judge whether Frazier is likely to bounce back is WAY more sophisticated than ours.   

I really want to emphasize that just because I believe their decisions are sophisticated doesn’t mean that they will turn out to be right or that I personally agree with them.   

 

[sportsfan8703]

Our FO does some low key smart moves that go under that radar. For example, the signings of Benboom and Jake Cave at the end of the year. We signed them both to split deals with a higher than average AAA salary. I think 800k. So if another team claimed them, they would either have to keep them on the 40 man roster, or DFA them and pass them through waivers and pay them the higher AAA salary. The Phillies did claim Jake Cave from us, but we’ll see what happens. But we did try and extend our 40 man roster to a 42 man roster. 
 

We’ve also claimed toolsy guys that just needed playing time like Mateo and Urias. Lewyn Diaz fits that mold of upside but we DFA’d him as well. 
 

I’m not worried about our FO doing the little sophisticated things. I worry about us taking a risk of any kind. 

[jrobb21613]

The evidence would suggest Gibson is more likely to have a bounce back year than Fraizer. The pitchers we’ve acquired have exceeded expectations while position players have underwhelmed 

[Aristotelian]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Their "sophistication" came up with Odor all year last year and Aguilar down the stretch. In the past they tried Pat Valaika, Kelvin Gutiérrez, and Maikel Franco as bounceback guys, so I think it's fair at this point to question their "sophistication" of judging bounce back candidates at the major league level. 

Now maybe Frazier will be different. Heck, we all hope he is because none of us want him to fail, but I think the argument that the Orioles know more than us may be true, but we have some results that tell us that they're missing more than hitting in this area. 

The guys you mentioned cost the O's nothing. Frazier and Gibson represent a pivot in that the Orioles are actually paying market rate well above the league minimum. 

I don't think it is an attempt to be "sophisticated" per se as much as there is a constraint from above preventing them from committing to long term contracts. I see these guys as playing the high end of the one year market and trying to do the most within the constraints that they have. They do not need to put up 3 WAR seasons to count as a "win". The O's are paying for about 1 WAR each.

Keep an eye on Frazier vs Profar, Segura etc, Gibson vs Syndergaard, Kluber, Clevinger. If they perform even or better with those guys I would count that as a win. 

The one previous signing that is comparable is Lyles and I could count him as a success. Voth could also be considered a successful bounceback guy although he was picked up through waivers.