Kostka: Os need to follow a different path

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just making the best case scenario for whether it made a difference in Adley’s impact on the team.  I didn’t say I buy it 100%.   To be clear, I was talking about 3-5 wins over 20-30 games, not 10-15.   The first 20 games Adley played in 2022 plus the 10 or so more he might have played if he’d had significant major league experience last year and thus didn’t need to spend as long in the minors on rehab this year.  Even 3-5 wins over 30 games is a big stretch, I know.  I’m just coming up with a rationale for an outer bounds of his possible impact.   And I agree that the with/without Adley’s W-L record last year can’t necessarily be assigned completely to Adley as opposed to unrelated events.   

4 wins in 30 games would be a 20 WAR pace. I'd say that's a little beyond the outer bound.

I would be curious to see an analysis of top prospects first 30 games and see if there is any consistency to the "acclimation" effect vs their overall first year. Just doing a random scan:

Julio Rodriguez, Judge, and Acuna hit significantly below their first year production, similar to Adley;

Bregman slightly below;

Bogaerts, Vlad and Turner about the same;

Seager, Soto, and Tatis significantly better.

Seems like a pretty even distribution. If there is a justification for starting a player early just to get their acclimation out of the way, I'm not really seeing it. Seems like you are just as likely to miss out on a hot start.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

By what? 10 games or so? He almost surely would've had to knock off rust anyway having not had ST and normal ramp up. I understand why this meaningless topic is such a sticking point though. No one can prove you wrong. Just so happens you can't prove that you're right either. If Adley didn't get hurt and started on opening day you could maybe get me to think the Orioles win 85ish games. Anything else is just absurd. 

Except the draft pick.

 

[NCRaven]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except the draft pick.

 

Not sure that I understand your point.  Elias couldn't bring Adley up in late 2021 with the expectation that they could get an extra draft pick in 2023 when the CBA with that stipulation hadn't been negotiated or agreed to the year before.  Not trying to be  a jackass here, just trying to get it straight.  

[Can_of_corn]

37 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Not sure that I understand your point.  Elias couldn't bring Adley up in late 2021 with the expectation that they could get an extra draft pick in 2023 when the CBA with that stipulation hadn't been negotiated or agreed to the year before.  Not trying to be  a jackass here, just trying to get it straight.  

He should have had him up regardless but him not bringing him up ended up costing the O's a draft pick(in all likelihood).

[NCRaven]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He should have had him up regardless but him not bringing him up ended up costing the O's a draft pick(in all likelihood).

Gotcha.  I am ambivalent about whether or not he "should have" been up in 2021.  Any player he would have displaced off the 40 man is probably gone now anyway.  But, I can't get behind the draft pick argument.  I doubt he knew then that the CBA would look the way that it does now.  Yes, we didn't get the draft pick, but I think that was unknowable during the 2021 season.  Now we just need to make sure any trade for pitching includes a compensatory pick coming back our way!

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He should have had him up regardless but him not bringing him up ended up costing the O's a draft pick(in all likelihood).

How?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LTO's said:

How?

I'm not sure what you mean?

If Adley had been up in 2021 and was on the 40 man and put on the IL during Spring Training he would have qualified for the awarding of a draft pick.

He would have been "called up" at the start of the season, just injured.

If Gunnar gets hurt in Spring training and is on the IL until the third week of the season and wins RoY do you think the O's won't get a pick?

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure what you mean?

If Adley had been up in 2021 and was on the 40 man and put on the IL during Spring Training he would have qualified for the awarding of a draft pick.

He would have been "called up" at the start of the season, just injured.

If Gunnar gets hurt in Spring training and is on the IL until the third week of the season and wins RoY do you think the O's won't get a pick?

Maybe I need to re-read the CBA as I thought the draft pick only went to the ROY. 

[Aristotelian]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He should have had him up regardless but him not bringing him up ended up costing the O's a draft pick(in all likelihood).

Adley getting injured cost the O's a draft pick. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Adley getting injured cost the O's a draft pick. 

We don't know that.

That's speculation.

[LTO's]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Adley getting injured cost the O's a draft pick. 

Yeah I just went back and re-read the CBA. Not calling up Adley and no effect on the draft compensation whatsoever. Even if he came back a week or so earlier it would've still easily been Julio. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah I just went back and re-read the CBA. Not calling up Adley and no effect on the draft compensation whatsoever. Even if he came back a week or so earlier it would've still easily been Julio. 

So this isn't accurate?

Quote

Teams that promote a player to the opening day roster and keep him up for a full season will be eligible to receive up to three draft picks if the player finishes in the Top 3 in the Rookie of the Year voting or Top 5 in MVP/Cy Young voting before he is eligible for arbitration.

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2022/3/14/22973710/all-the-details-in-mlbs-new-collective-bargaining-agreement

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

4 wins in 30 games would be a 20 WAR pace. I'd say that's a little beyond the outer bound.

I personally don’t believe that WAR is a good measure of how many more games a team will win with player A vs. player B.   It’s a good measure of overall value but the idea that WAR is very closely correlated with wins is a bit of a conceit IMO.

That said, I don’t know what Adley’s WAR  was as of June 14 when he was at .513 OPS, but I’d guess very close to 0.0.   

[LTO's]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

So this isn't accurate?

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2022/3/14/22973710/all-the-details-in-mlbs-new-collective-bargaining-agreement

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/14/ramifications-of-rookie-of-the-year-voting-for-mariners-braves-orioles-guardians-and-cardinals

 

Nope. No compensation goes to any team besides the ROY's club. There was talk that the #2 and #3 finishers (which Adley was anyway) would receive an extra draft pick in the proposed international draft. That obviously never materialized. Adley does get a full year of service time, however. Good for him!

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/14/ramifications-of-rookie-of-the-year-voting-for-mariners-braves-orioles-guardians-and-cardinals

 

Nope. No compensation goes to any team besides the ROY's club. There was talk that the #2 and #3 finishers (which Adley was anyway) would receive an extra draft pick in the proposed international draft. That obviously never materialized. Adley does get a full year of service time, however. Good for him!

OK then.

Sorry, everything I'd read said it wasn't just the top finisher.  Evidently that changed when the International draft was not agreed to.

Good research.