Adley Rutschman: Baserunner

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s look at a few data points (all from BB-ref):

- Mullins stole 34 bases and was caught 10 times, and was picked off one other time that was not counted as a CS.  The break even point for steals is about 70%, so Mullins is maybe +1 or +2 bases there.  Rutschman stole 4 bases and wasn’t caught stealing, so advantage Rutschman. 

- Mullins took an extra base on a single or a double 49% of the time, well above the league average of 41%.   He was thrown out twice trying to take an extra base that way.   Adley took an extra base on a single or a double 52% of the time, even better than Mullins, and was never thrown out.  That’s extremely impressive.   

- Overall, Mullins made 7 Outs on the Bases (“OOB”), defined this way: “out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit, doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.  Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.”  Adley made 3 OOB.

- Mullins had 19 Bases Taken, defined as “Bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, defensive indifference.”   Adley had 22.

And that is why Adley ends up with more baserunning runs than Mullins.  There’s nothing wrong with Mullins’ numbers, but Adley has great baserunning instincts despite his slightly below average raw speed.   

Thanks for the analysis.  It makes sense.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’m not surprised. He has Ripken-like instincts. 

FWIW, Bb-ref has Cal at -4 baserunning runs for his career.   That’s not bad considering his below average speed.  His best year was a +4, which is what Adley was last year.   

[eddie83]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s look at a few data points (all from BB-ref):

- Mullins stole 34 bases and was caught 10 times, and was picked off one other time that was not counted as a CS.  The break even point for steals is about 70%, so Mullins is maybe +1 or +2 bases there.  Rutschman stole 4 bases and wasn’t caught stealing, so advantage Rutschman. 

- Mullins took an extra base on a single or a double 49% of the time, well above the league average of 41%.   He was thrown out twice trying to take an extra base that way.   Adley took an extra base on a single or a double 52% of the time, even better than Mullins, and was never thrown out.  That’s extremely impressive.   

- Overall, Mullins made 7 Outs on the Bases (“OOB”), defined this way: “out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit, doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.  Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.”  Adley made 3 OOB.

- Mullins had 19 Bases Taken, defined as “Bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, defensive indifference.”   Adley had 22.

And that is why Adley ends up with more baserunning runs than Mullins.  There’s nothing wrong with Mullins’ numbers, but Adley has great baserunning instincts despite his slightly below average raw speed.   

Looking at some of the numbers I have to think how many outs there are/who is on deck plays a huge role. 
 

Santander while on 2nd had 21 singles hit. Scored 16 times. Mullins was 17/26. Hays 6/17.  
 

On double from 1st Mullins scored 4/11 scoring and looks like 2 outs. Adley was 5/7 and Santander 5/8.  

[Frobby]

By the way, Adley was 22nd in the entire major leagues in Fangraphs BsR, and 20th in Bb-Ref’s Baserunning Runs.  That’s pretty impressive.   

[sevastras]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Like I said, I think Adley is the smartest baseball player on the team and they may be the most underrated “skill” in all of sports.

He seems to be a very intelligent individual. Handley doesn’t really hit and I’m not sure if there are the same tracking of those advanced stats in the minors, however Handley did go to Stanford and plans on being an orthopedic surgeon when his career in baseball is over.  He was the co-defensive player of the year for the pac-12 with Adley, as well. 

[Just Regular]

We'll see if Scott Rolen 4.4.1975 gets the votes for HOF tonight, but he's a bigger guy I remember as a famously productive "slow" baserunner.      Fangraphs numbers don't exactly cry that out though.

 

Rolen 21-25 - Fangraphs BsR gives him 2.2 for 1996-2000

Rolen 26-30 - 1.2 for 2001-2005   

Rolen 31-35 - 6.3 for 2006-2010

Rolen 36-37 - 0.8 for 2011-2012