Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

His Pull% was actually 20.8% last year compared to the league average of 29.1%.  Now, based on what I've seen I agree that, especially when he gets into one of his funks, he seems to get very pull happy at times.  But overall, the stats indicate he is pretty good at using all fields. 

Fangraphs has his pull percentage at 33.8% last year.   It was actually higher in 2021 (39.7%).    Where are you seing the 20.8%?

[Big Mac]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fangraphs has his pull percentage at 33.8% last year.   It was actually higher in 2021 (39.7%).    Where are you seing the 20.8%?

Interesting...I pulled my numbers from bbref. 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fangraphs has his pull percentage at 33.8% last year.   It was actually higher in 2021 (39.7%).    Where are you seing the 20.8%?

Ryan Mountcastle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

2020 - 24.5%

2021 - 27.6%

2022 - 20.8%

Not sure where they draw the line (literally and figuratively), but the trend of using all fields better still holds.

[btdart20]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Ryan Mountcastle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

2020 - 24.5%

2021 - 27.6%

2022 - 20.8%

Not sure where they draw the line (literally and figuratively), but the trend of using all fields better still holds.

To continue the Riley comp into batted ball profile... well, they fell apart...  

2020 - 33.6%

2021 - 27.9%

2022 - 29.3%

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Interesting...I pulled my numbers from bbref. 

It's hard to believe that Mountcastle only pulls the ball 20% of the time but I guess it depends on how strict the definition of "pull" is.

[interloper]

I'm big on Mounty this year. I still believe in his bat. He's a good young power hitter who just needs a little bit more luck and a little bit more patience to be a very good player. 

He gets lumped in a lot with Hays, but I'm much higher on his bat than I am Hays'. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

Jon Meoli has a nice (free) column up today digging into Mountcastle’s spray charts from last year and the discrepancies between his actual and expected numbers:  https://jonmeoli.substack.com/p/can-the-unluckiest-hitters-in-recent

The gist is that he had a ton of hard hit balls in the middle of the field that were outs, and that was the cause of the gap, much moreso than the new LF dimensions.  

[now]

Mountcastle gets lumped with Hays since they both had a disappointing second half last season. I have given up expecting more from either of them but they are both young enough to turn it around, and if they do (especially Mountcastle with the greater power) it would be huge for this year's team. 

[Scalious]

Guys who pull less fly-balls then average tend to underachieve their statcast numbers, while guys who pull more fly-balls then average tend to overachieve their stat cast numbers. You want your powers hitters to pull anything with decent hangtime. It's the zero to small hangtimes balls you are looking towards an all fields approach.

Saying your slow footed power hitter with a healthy launch angle is too pull happy is the opposite what you want.

His main problem is he's so aggressive that he doesn't select for ideal pitches to hit as often as other hitters. In part because he's so talented that he can make decent contact off pitches other hitters would whiff/weak contact against. So he doesn't have any incentive to change. There is this gap between decent contact and extra base/out of the park power he is losing out on. Thus undermining his potetional in both ISO and OBP. Bring his pull rates back to 2021 should bring him back to 30+ HRs with maybe .260-.270 BA this time around.

[sportsfan8703]

It looks like he’s on the verge of just completely breaking out. Other than the Strikeouts. His defense at first keeps getting better. 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It looks like he’s on the verge of just completely breaking out. Other than the Strikeouts. His defense at first keeps getting better. 

We’ll see.  He looked terrible the night before.  One AB he swung at a ball that might have hit him if he didn’t hit it first.   

[Sports Guy]

Nice to see him get off to a good start. He has been a very slow starter in the past.

The offense in general is off to a big start, leading the league in OPS I believe.

Be interesting to see how things go once they get to Walltimore. Mountcastle in particular was greatly effected by the new wall last year.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Nice to see him get off to a good start. He has been a very slow starter in the past.

The offense in general is off to a big start, leading the league in OPS I believe.

Be interesting to see how things go once they get to Walltimore. Mountcastle in particular was greatly effected by the new wall last year.

Go scroll up and read the piece that Frobby linked to.

Have a sample.

Quote

Filtering that to balls hit over 100 mph or harder (shown below) illustrates a pretty solid concentration of balls just right of dead-center field that were all outs for Mountcastle, where even a couple of them going for doubles might have changed his luck last year.

 

[interloper]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

We’ll see.  He looked terrible the night before.  One AB he swung at a ball that might have hit him if he didn’t hit it first.   

I don't mind a game or two where he looks bad like that as long as he doesn't disappear for a month like he sometimes does. So far I like what I see, especially against lefties. 

[MCO'sFan]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It looks like he’s on the verge of just completely breaking out. Other than the Strikeouts. His defense at first keeps getting better. 

He has the chance to be a plus defender, maybe even more, if he can become more consistent. He CAN do everything well, he just isn't consistent enough. He is a former SS  so he should be a plus defender at 1B.