Are the Orioles a legitimate playoff contender (Going into Spring training)?

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, sevastras said:

Your board, your rules. However, if we all responded in the manner above, you wouldn’t be happy with the results.

Did I call him any names? What rule did I break? 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Health

2) Guys who overachieved turn back into pumpkins.

3) Luck

4) Improvement of other teams around them.

This is my concern. I personally think the Orioles treaded water this offseason and need their young players to all take steps forward or repeat what they did last year and that's a lot to ask. 

It's not impossible that this team contends or plays as well as they did last year, but the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox all improved this offseason while Elias choose to tread water.

I'm personally on the fence with whether they can be a contender this year under my criteria. It's not out of the question that they could be battling for the last wildcard in September while needing another team or teams to collapse, but I don't think we can look at what Elias did this offseason and say he made them a true playoff contender.

Even if his budget came under what he was expecting, the way he choose to spend his money on Gibson and Frazier vs say Bassitt and Westburg/Ortiz/Urias will be scrutinized if Bassitt is very good for the Blue Jays and say Gibson and Frazier are as advertised. 

I do see a road to contention and if the young guys do take those steps forward, the bullpen of "unknowns prior to last year" repeat their success, and the starting rotation pitches like they did in the 2nd half last year, then they will be a thick of a wildcard hunt. But that's a lot of ifs and I felt like this is the spring training we should have gone in thinking the Orioles were legitimate playoff contenders. 

Now it will be up to the players to prove Elias right.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is my concern. I personally think the Orioles treaded water this offseason and need their young players to all take steps forward or repeat what they did last year and that's a lot to ask. 

It's not impossible that this team contends or plays as well as they did last year, but the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox all improved this offseason while Elias choose to tread water.

I'm personally on the fence with whether they can be a contender this year under my criteria. It's not out of the question that they could be battling for the last wildcard in September while needing another team or teams to collapse, but I don't think we can look at what Elias did this offseason and say he made them a true playoff contender.

Even if his budget came under what he was expecting, the way he choose to spend his money on Gibson and Frazier vs say Bassitt and Westburg/Ortiz/Urias will be scrutinized if Bassitt is very good for the Blue Jays and say Gibson and Frazier are as advertised. 

I do see a road to contention and if the young guys do take those steps forward, the bullpen of "unknowns prior to last year" repeat their success, and the starting rotation pitches like they did in the 2nd half last year, then they will be a thick of a wildcard hunt. But that's a lot of ifs and I felt like this is the spring training we should have gone in thinking the Orioles were legitimate playoff contenders. 

Now it will be up to the players to prove Elias right.

You named everyone but Tampa but to me, they are the real scary ones and the team I would pick right now to win the division and challenge the Indians.

They added to their rotation and, more importantly, they are healthy. They won 86 games last year and most of the team was hurt.

If Franco starts to realize his potential and they can get full seasons out of their best players, they may win 100 games.

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is the kind of stuff irritates me to no end.

Why, because it doesn't match whatever the heck is in your head as to what a contender means? It's a simple thread with a criteria that I clearly defined (so people could vote WITHIN the criteria) that was meant to spark conversation. It matches just fine. Just because it doesn't match whatever criteria you have in your head for whatever a contender means doesn't mean it doesn't match.

You want to make Foxfield's version of what it means to be contender, have at it, but I don't appreciate you telling me my criteria and header doesn't match. 

Was this thread called, what do you think makes a team a contender? Was this thread called tell me why my header and questions don't match? Nope. 

Now you could have come in here  and said "I have a different criteria that I use ...." and that would have been fine, but trying to squat on my criteria in my thread is great way to piss me off.

Especially when your "criteria" not a criteria, but something you just made up that includes "improved pitching" "lack of regression" and "much stronger offensive performance." 

Please, tell us 'ol criteria master, how do you determined what improved pitching and "much" stronger offensive performances means? Your comments don't match your concern over my completely made up "40% chance" on September 1st.

Yet, we can look at Fan Graphs playoff odds on September 1st and use my criteria now can't we?

If you plan to come at me in my thread, at least come at me with better criteria. And before you say my heading and criteria doesn't match, make sure you understand the definition of the word of criteria.

 

 

Wow, I have no idea who pissed in your corn flakes but I did no such thing.  I answered a poll that asked if the Orioles were contenders going into spring training....with the answers given being will they be in it in Sept or not.

I did the best I could to give my answer to the question as I understood it.  

If you felt attacked or squatted on I honestly apologize but your reaction is out of line.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You named everyone but Tampa but to me, they are the real scary ones and the team I would pick right now to win the division and challenge the Indians.

They added to their rotation and, more importantly, they are healthy. They won 86 games last year and most of the team was hurt.

If Franco starts to realize his potential and they can get full seasons out of their best players, they may win 100 games.

True. I did forget to mention Tampa but I agree, they are full of young talent as well and are ahead of the Orioles in many ways still. It's an uphill challenge for sure, so even if the Orioles are better then last year, their competition got much better by actually going out and getting impact talent (outside of Tampa).

[Tony-OH]

40 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Wow, I have no idea who pissed in your corn flakes but I did no such thing.  I answered a poll that asked if the Orioles were contenders going into spring training....with the answers given being will they be in it in Sept or not.

I did the best I could to give my answer to the question as I understood it.  

If you felt attacked or squatted on I honestly apologize but your reaction is out of line.

You "answered" the poll by telling me my heading and polls questions didn't match. They absolutely did. Reread what you wrote. That was an attack in the OP and if you plan to do that, at least give better criteria that you can actually use.

I literally set a criteria (40% chance on Sept 1st) so people wouldn't just go off and use whatever criteria they wanted to decide if the Orioles were contenders. Instead of talking about the team, you decided to start your post basically saying my poll was dumb. 

So the answer to you latest question is you, you pissed in my cornflakes. Sorry if you don't like the response, but I don't like people telling my posts/polls are dumb.

Saying all that, it's over let's move on. I don't hold grudges unless it becomes constant.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

True. I did forget to mention Tampa but I agree, they are full of young talent as well and are ahead of the Orioles in many ways still. It's an uphill challenge for sure, so even if the Orioles are better then last year, their competition got much better by actually going out and getting impact talent (outside of Tampa).

Luckily we don’t play the AL East so often this year.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Luckily we don’t play the AL East so often this year.  

Yes, and that's a big help for sure. The AL East if going to be brutal.

[Jim'sKid26]

11 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Injuries are why I actually think this year's team is better suited to contend than last year's team. The organization has several prospects who are ready to contribute immediately or very soon in 2023, and if any of a few projected starters - Frazier, Mateo, and Hays in particular - go down with an injury, the team would very likely improve with the prospect that will replace them on the major league roster (Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, Kjerstad).

I don't think there is an adequate injury replacement for Adley and losing him, a catcher whose game is based more around athleticism than power, would be very impactful. Losing Mullins for any length of time would be an issue as well as there is no one in the system able to effectively lead off. Prospects are prospects because they are unproven at the MLB level. Some will meet expectations. Some will not. Kjerstad, specifically, ia a ways away from making his debut. The swing and miss aspect of his game is not inconsequential and he is hardly an elite defender. Each of the prospects you listed have flaws in their games that keep them from being projected as starters for 2023. I think we have to temper our enthusiasm a bit, IMHO. But you be you.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Luckily we don’t play the AL East so often this year.  

Yes but we still play them a lot and there are a lot of other AL teams that we will play that are in much better shape

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but we still play them a lot and there are a lot of other AL teams that we will play that are in much better shape

Well, the big increase is the interleague games.   46 games instead of 20.  That’s where  all the former AL East games are going (52 games instead of 76).   Obviously some of those teams are improved, too.   On net I still think playing 3 games against each NL team (and 4 against the Nats) is better than playing a bunch of games against the AL East.  None of that changes the fact that the team played it very conservative this winter.  

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I don't think there is an adequate injury replacement for Adley and losing him, a catcher whose game is based more around athleticism than power, would be very impactful. Losing Mullins for any length of time would be an issue as well as there is no one in the system able to effectively lead off. Prospects are prospects because they are unproven at the MLB level. Some will meet expectations. Some will not. Kjerstad, specifically, ia a ways away from making his debut. The swing and miss aspect of his game is not inconsequential and he is hardly an elite defender. Each of the prospects you listed have flaws in their games that keep them from being projected as starters for 2023. I think we have to temper our enthusiasm a bit, IMHO. But you be you.

You bring up valid points, but I'll be me. I think all four of those prospects I mentioned will not only be ready this year, but they'll all be up this season at some point barring a season-ending injury. And they'll all be upgrades over the veteran Opening Day starters they'll be replacing or sharing playing time with.

Also, I never said that the team is immune to injuries at every position. Just that the Orioles are in a much better position to contend because there's considerably more depth in the form of impact prospects to deal with injuries than last season. Adley can't be replaced and would be a big loss, I agree with you there. But that's pretty obvious.

[Oriole1940]

It is true that games are won or lost between the lines,  but it does beg the question as to just why management handled  the off season like they did, so that they go into the season with this group of players, barring a trade between now and then.  Good to give the prospects a chance to prove themselves, but after their gallant 2022, I cannot help but wonder why they did not try to field a better team than they have chosen to,  to start the season.   Esp. with the league getting noticeably stronger.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Oriole1940 said:

It is true that games are won or lost between the lines,  but it does beg the question as to just why management handled  the off season like they did, so that they go into the season with this group of players, barring a trade between now and then.  Good to give the prospects a chance to prove themselves, but after their gallant 2022, I cannot help but wonder why they did not try to field a better team than they have chosen to,  to start the season.   Esp. with the league getting noticeably stronger.  

Probably due to ownership trying to be cheap, preparing to sell, or both. Possibly due to Elias conservatism but I suspect ownership. The one move that really makes no sense though is Frazier, I just don't get that one from any perspective.

 

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Probably due to ownership trying to be cheap, preparing to sell, or both. Possibly due to Elias conservatism but I suspect ownership. The one move that really makes no sense though is Frazier, I just don't get that one from any perspective.

 

I do think the budget affected Elias' winter, but he still spent over $25 million for Gibson, McCann and our favorite new player Frazier. So I think it's partly the budge and party on how Elias decided to use his resources when he had prospects ready to play positions he filled with questionable players. 

We'll see how it works out.