Fangraphs top 100

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm convinced they're only mildly in "win now" mode. I don't see them giving up guys who project as cornerstones unless it's for a cornerstone return. Given the win now mode question, that's why I don't think it's "likely" that Mayo gets traded.

I think Mayo has to be a headliner (or co-headliner with a Cowser type) at this point from the O's perspective, but I doubt other teams look at him like that quite yet. That could start to change with a little spring training hype.

I don't think a little spring training hype is going to con any teams into changing their evaluations.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think a little spring training hype is going to con any teams into changing their evaluations.

Well, spring training hype isn't going to turn Creed Willems into Adley Rutschman as a prospect, but it might take a guy who's top 50 in all of baseball on some lists and make him a headliner in a trade. Combine a couple of 450 ft home runs with 110 EVs and 98 mph from 3rd to 1st and you might make believers of people who already think highly of him.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well, spring training hype isn't going to turn Creed Willems into Adley Rutschman as a prospect, but it might take a guy who's top 50 in all of baseball on some lists and make him a headliner in a trade. Combine a couple of 450 ft home runs with 110 EVs and 98 mph from 3rd to 1st and you might make believers of people who already think highly of him.

Gunnar got huge hype from ST a few years back.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar got huge hype from ST a few years back.

National hype?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

National hype?

I do think I think I recall reading some of the prospect stuff talking about the way he looked in the 2020 camp and the carryover into ST but not 100% sure about that.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar got huge hype from ST a few years back.

?  He got some hype from going to the alt site in 2020.   I don’t remember any hype from going to ST.

 

[Tony-OH]

On 2/22/2023 at 10:52 AM, Frobby said:

One of the interesting features of this list is the probability charts for each player.  For example, Gunnar’s distribution looks like this:

Bust 5%
40/45 7%
50/55 33%
60/65 30%
70+ 25%

You gotta love that.   The bust chances on the others are way higher:

Holliday 22%
Rodriguez 40%
Mayo 32%
Hall 25%
Ortiz 22%

The Rodriguez bust rate makes zero sense to me.  Higher than Hall’s?  No way.   I’ll have to dig around, but I think Fangraphs did these charts last year too  and Rodriguez had a way lower bust rate   .

 

My only thought is they know Hall has a floor of a very good left-handed reliever which perhaps lowers his bust percentage. Personally I think Rodriguez at 40% is very high, but I don't know how they come up with these percentages.

[sportsfan8703]

On 2/22/2023 at 10:12 AM, Frobby said:

1. Henderson

9. Holliday

17. Rodriguez

36. Mayo

64. Hall

66. Ortiz

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

That’s the highest I’ve seen Mayo.  

The next time the outlets adjust their lists, and not just slot guys up because of eligibility, Holliday will be #1.