2020 vs 2021 Amateur Draft

[Pat Kelly]

Would you trade O's 2020 picks for 2021 picks?

Would you re-draft 2020?  2021? 

2020 Draft

1    2    Heston Kjerstad     OF   Arkansas 

1    30   Jordan Westburg     SS   Mississippi State  

2    39   Hudson Haskin       OF   Tulane   

3    74   Anthony Servideo    SS   Ole Miss 

4    103  Coby Mayo           3B   Stoneman Douglas HS

5    133  Carter Baumler      P    Dowling Catholic HS

 

2021 Draft  

1    5    Colton Cowser       OF   Sam Houston   

2    41   Connor Norby        2B   East Carolina 

2    65   Reed Trumple        OF   Southern Mississippi    

3    76   John Rhodes         OF   Kentucky 

4    106  Donta' Williams     OF   Arizona  

5    137  Carlos Tavera       P    University of Texas

6    167  Collin Burnes       SS   Tulane   

7    197  Connor Pavolony     C    Tennessee

8    227  Creed Willems       C    Aledo High (TX)    

9    257  Ryan Higgins        3B   Fresno State  

10   287  Billy Cook          3B   Pepperdine

[RZNJ]

Right now, I’d take the 2020 class.  Kjerstad, Westburg, and Mayo.  Haskin has an outside chance of being something and anything Baumler does is gravy.

Cowser and Norby look like ML regulars but there’s nothing exciting, to this point, after that.   That could change.

[CharmCityHokie]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right now, I’d take the 2020 class.  Kjerstad, Westburg, and Mayo.  Haskin has an outside chance of being something and anything Baumler does is gravy.

Cowser and Norby look like ML regulars but there’s nothing exciting, to this point, after that.   That could change.

I agree with this. I think they tried to double-down on their cleverness in '21 and it hasn't worked out. I'd take the '20 class if choosing between the two.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I agree with this. I think they tried to double-down on their cleverness in '21 and it hasn't worked out. I'd take the '20 class if choosing between the two.

Who’s to say it hasn’t worked out?   We got two top 100 prospects (on most lists) from that draft.   For me, the sleeper is Tavera, who was intermittently dominant before his season got interrupted last year.  

At present, I’d rather have our 2020 draft, especially with how good Kjerstad has looked this spring.  But it’s still up in the air which class will be better, and both have a chance to be very good.  
 

[btdart20]

Honestly, both look solid to me.  Amazing what a year of Kjerstad health will do to make a draft look much better!  

2020 - A bigger pool of money to work with in a limited number of rounds to use it in.  Having 3 picks before #40 overall certainly stacks the deck in its favor.  To be able to get Mayo and Baumler later was a heist.  I'm a fan of Baumler, but am worried about him being healthy at all. 

2021 - Cowser and Norby are the only ones in 2021, but Tavera can be a piece and I have hope in Burns too.  It's not a stretch to imagine Cowser or Norby finishing their carrers with the highest WAR of both groups.  

Re-drafts - I'm sure we can go through all sorts of iterations (in hindsight or not), but the only issue I see is taking so many OFers in 2021.  I know Elias isn't a fan of drafting SPs, but an SP shot from 65-76-106 would have been good.  Tiedeman and Povich were in that range (of course, that's hindsight speaking since I'm not very familiar with many of the others).  

What's with the "misspelling" Reed Trimble?  He's had his health and performance issues.  He's got speed but contact issues will limit his upside.  But he still has a wide range of outcomes.

[Frobby]

I think injuries have impacted some guys in the 2021 draft (Trimble and Rhodes), and they could look better when the 2023 season is over.  Also, the OP lists only the first 10 rounds, but I think no. 12 Armbruester shows some potential.  

On the other side of the coin, if Baumler could stay healthy, that could give the 2020 class a big jolt.  Servideo has been hurt more than he’s been healthy, but I sort of feel his ship is close to sailing away.  
 

[Chaka Garcia]

Surprise nothing from Baumler, is he even in minor league camp throwing?

[yark14]

I think Creed Willems tips the scales towards the 2021 class.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, yark14 said:

I think Creed Willems tips the scales towards the 2021 class.

Is that a fat joke?

If so I approve.

[CharmCityHokie]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who’s to say it hasn’t worked out?   We got two top 100 prospects (on most lists) from that draft.   For me, the sleeper is Tavera, who was intermittently dominant before his season got interrupted last year.  

At present, I’d rather have our 2020 draft, especially with how good Kjerstad has looked this spring.  But it’s still up in the air which class will be better, and both have a chance to be very good.  
 

It's just my opinion. I'm lower on Cowser than a lot of publications/fans due to the K's and platoon splits, and I'm not sure Norby is staying at second which makes him a lot less interesting. Tavera was a good get, and maybe Cowser turns out to be a stud and I'm wrong, but it was a weird draft (in my opinion) and how they went about it, it seems like their strategy got blown up somewhere in the first few rounds. That's just my take, I'm no Elias or Sig, so my opinion is worth about as much as a hayseed. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

It's just my opinion. I'm lower on Cowser than a lot of publications/fans due to the K's and platoon splits, and I'm not sure Norby is staying at second which makes him a lot less interesting. Tavera was a good get, and maybe Cowser turns out to be a stud and I'm wrong, but it was a weird draft (in my opinion) and how they went about it, it seems like their strategy got blown up somewhere in the first few rounds. That's just my take, I'm no Elias or Sig, so my opinion is worth about as much as a hayseed. 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just saying it’s too soon to really know.  

[CharmCityHokie]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just saying it’s too soon to really know.  

I'm almost certainly wrong about some facet of it, but I'll look forward to eating my crow about it when it comes to pass.