Adam Frazier 2023

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a lot better than Odor and I’m more than happy with Frazier as a bench piece. Odor has no business on a ML roster.  Frazier certainly belongs on one but as a pinch hitter, play sparingly type guy.

Odor has actually been helpful to the Padres this season, sometimes even batting in the MOO. He's also walking at a surprising clip. .220/.315/.413 (.727, 103+)

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, LA2 said:

.220/.315/.413 (103+) for Odor

(124 plate appearances with San Diego).

That’s interesting.  I had no idea he was doing that well.  He’s on the IL now, I believe.  

[Brian88]

3 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Odor has actually been helpful to the Padres this season, sometimes even batting in the MOO. He's also walking at a surprising clip. .220/.315/.413 (.727, 103+)

I was quite surprised to see him batting lead off and playing RF recently. 

[LA2]

7 minutes ago, Brian88 said:

I was quite surprised to see him batting lead off and playing RF recently. 

Also, 6 games (3 starts) batting fifth, which is really something when you consider San Diego's lineup albeit Machado was out for a while, etc.

[LA2]

12 minutes ago, Brian88 said:

I was quite surprised to see him batting lead off and playing RF recently. 

Yes, 25, 4, and 5 games at 2B, 3B, and RF respectively (as well as 2 as DH)--although playing in the OF seems to raise his anxiety level: he's only 1 for 16 with 2 BB and 9 K when playing there.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That would be a killer infield with Jackson Holliday only 1 year away from making his presence known in MLB.

FTFY

[Baltimorecuse]

What's crazy to me is how does Frazier fit into the stated plans of the team?  I would think if Frazier is here next year that our minor league depth was overstated.  

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

FTFY

You’re gonna be pissy when JH isn’t up next year. Start working on that outrage now. 

[owknows]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Great, so he’s been playing at replacement level for a few weeks.  

As you know, I’m tracking rWAR and fWAR in 18-game segments.   Hays had a segment of 0.0 WAR.  Santander had a segment of sub-0.0 WAR.  Henderson had a segment of sub-0.0 WAR.  I’ll venture a guess that by the end of the year, almost every player on the team will have had a segment of 0.0 WAR or below.  
 

Wow...  you seem as touchy now as you did then.

I'm not talking about other players... I'm talking about Frazier.

He's been replacement level or below for most of the year.

He had a really nice heater for a few weeks in May. It was those weeks that were the outlier... not the rest of the year.

His BA and OPS+ By Month are as follows:

Apr .220, 83

May .269, 111

Jun .164, 44

Maybe he' just the not the guy you were making him out to be... and you jumped on the band wagon based on a hopeful heater in May. It happens to everyone once in awhile. Even you. And baseball fortunes are fickle.. he could go on another short term tear at any time.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, owknows said:

Wow...  you seem as touchy now as you did then.

I'm not talking about other players... I'm talking about Frazier.

He's been replacement level or below for most of the year.

This is simply blatantly false.  I’ve been tracking both rWAR and fWAR every 18 games.  

Games 1-18: 0.6 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR.  That’s not replacement level or anything close.  Annualized, that would be 5.4 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR.

Games 19-36: 0.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR.  Depends which flavor of WAR you prefer.  Annualized, just for those 18 games, it would be 1.8 rWAR (slightly below average regular), 0.0 fWAR (replacement level) for those 18 games.  Cumulatively through 36 games, that’s 0.8 rWAR (projects to 3.6 rWAR annually), 0.3 fWAR (projects to 1.35 fWAR).

Games 37-55: 0.2 rWAR (1.8 annualized), 0.2 fWAR (1.8 annualized).  Cumulatively, he was at 1.0 rWAR (3.0 annualized), 0.5 fWAR (1.5 annualized).

Games 56-72: 0.0 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR.  I’ll happily concede that Frazier was replacement level or worse in that 18-game stretch.  Cumulatively, he’s at 1.0 rWAR  2.2 annualized), 0.2 fWAR (0.45 annualized).   

I don’t see any way an objective person can look at this data and say Frazier has been “replacement level or below for most of the season.”  It’s just flatly not so.  

And by the way, I resent you saying that I “jumped on the bandwagon base on a hopeful hester in May.”   When Frazier was hot I came out and flatly said I did not expect Frazier’s numbers to stay that high.  And I’ve never been on his bandwagon.  I didn’t like the Frazier signing. I just don’t like it when people distort the facts.   Which you’ve done.  


 

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is simply blatantly false.  I’ve been tracking both rWAR and fWAR every 18 games.  

Games 1-18: 0.6 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR.  That’s not replacement level or anything close.  Annualized, that would be 5.4 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR.

Games 19-36: 0.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR.  Depends which flavor of WAR you prefer.  Annualized, just for those 18 games, it would be 1.8 rWAR (slightly below average regular), 0.0 fWAR (replacement level) for those 18 games.  Cumulatively through 36 games, that’s 0.8 rWAR (projects to 3.6 rWAR annually), 0.3 fWAR (projects to 1.35 fWAR).

Games 37-55: 0.2 rWAR (1.8 annualized), 0.2 fWAR (1.8 annualized).  Cumulatively, he was at 1.0 rWAR (3.0 annualized), 0.5 fWAR (1.5 annualized).

Games 56-72: 0.0 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR.  I’ll happily concede that Frazier was replacement level or worse in that 18-game stretch.  Cumulatively, he’s at 1.0 rWAR  2.2 annualized), 0.2 fWAR (0.45 annualized).   

I don’t see any way an objective person can look at this data and say Frazier has been “replacement level or below for most of the season.”  It’s just flatly not so.  

And by the way, I resent you saying that I “jumped on the bandwagon base on a hopeful hester in May.”   When Frazier was hot I came out and flatly said I did not expect Frazier’s numbers to stay that high.  And I’ve never been on his bandwagon.  I didn’t like the Frazier signing. I just don’t like it when people distort the facts.   Which you’ve done.  


 

LOL

Your own numbers say he was worth a combined 0.3 FWAR over his first 18 games

And that he's been worth a combined -0.1 FWAR over 56 games since

Is this really the cherry-picking hill you want to die on?

And for what it's worth... I probably wouldn't be rubbing your nose in this if it wasn't for the over the top rage drama you responded with the first time.

Sometimes its better just to say yeah... maybe I overestimated him.

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

FTFY

How is that going to happen are you going to kidnap Mike Elias and assume his identity? Maybe Jackson Holliday gets called up sometime second half of 2024, but I have my doubts that happens.

This assumes that Holliday keeps tearing it up in the minor leagues and he looks the part of being ready. Would like to see Elias be more aggressive calling prospect, but I don't think he alters his approach.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

How is that going to happen are you going to kidnap Mike Elias and assume his identity? Maybe Jackson Holliday gets called up sometime second half of 2024, but I have my doubts that happens.

This assumes that Holliday keeps tearing it up in the minor leagues and he looks the part of being ready. Would like to see Elias be more aggressive calling prospect, but I don't think he alters his approach.

He will be in AA within a month, which makes it likely he starts next year in AAA. He isn’t staying in AAA all year if he’s healthy and productive.

[terpoh]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He will be in AA within a month, which makes it likely he starts next year in AAA. He isn’t staying in AAA all year if he’s healthy and productive.

I dont believe thats the pattern we've seen from Elias. Guys that have made multi level jumps or mid season jumps have genreally started the following season at the same level they ended the previous year. So I could see JH up to AA for the remainder of this year, then starting next year at AA and moving quickly to AAA if hes hot. Then spending a lot of time in AAA as the fans wonder why he isnt called up yet. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Between him and Mateo's poor performance, how is Ortiz not getting five starts a week?