Adam Frazier 2023

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Conway12 said:

Does anyone know why according to Baseball Reference Adam Frazier has been worth 1.1 WAR (a 2.8 WAR pace over 162 games placing him into the category of a solid starter) but, according to Fangraphs he has been worth 0.3 WAR (a 0.7 WAR pace making him a scrub)? Fangraphs also has him rated as the worst qualifying second baseman in all of baseball.

I know that the two sites calculate WAR differently, but they usually are much closer in line to each other in my experience. Every other position player on the roster is within a couple of tenths of WAR between the two sites. Seems odd that Frazier has such a large discrepancy. 

Fangraphs has the better WAR because they account for park factors better and use the better/more reliable defensive stats. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Conway12]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fangraphs has the better WAR because they account for park factors better and use the better/more reliable defensive stats. 

Didn't think about the Park Factors. I also wonder if Defensive Value Stats are thrown off this year by the shift ban. Because he was 91st percentile last year in OAA and is 2nd percentile in OAA this year. Seems like that has to be shift ban for such a marked decrease. Not sure how UZR and DRS are handling the shift ban. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Conway12 said:

Didn't think about the Park Factors. I also wonder if Defensive Value Stats are thrown off this year by the shift ban. Because he was 91st percentile last year in OAA and is 2nd percentile in OAA this year. Seems like that has to be shift ban for such a marked decrease. Not sure how UZR and DRS are handling the shift ban. 

He’s a MIer on the wrong side of 30. Those guys drop off very fast, historically.

 

[Brooks The Great]

54 minutes ago, Conway12 said:

Does anyone know why according to Baseball Reference Adam Frazier has been worth 1.1 WAR (a 2.8 WAR pace over 162 games placing him into the category of a solid starter) but, according to Fangraphs he has been worth 0.3 WAR (a 0.7 WAR pace making him a scrub)? Fangraphs also has him rated as the worst qualifying second baseman in all of baseball.

I know that the two sites calculate WAR differently, but they usually are much closer in line to each other in my experience. Every other position player on the roster is within a couple of tenths of WAR between the two sites. Seems odd that Frazier has such a large discrepancy. 

The eye test and OPS+ makes me feel that the Fangraphs WAR is more accurate. Frazier is a below average hitter/scrub, and Westburg would be an upgrade over him whenever Westburg is finally promoted.

[Conway12]

For what it's worth Baseball Prospectus has Frazier at 0.7 WARP or on pace for a 1.8 WARP season. So right in the middle of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. 

I'd agree that Frazier being a 2.8 WAR player over the course of the year doesn't match what I am watching. Only wanted to see if someone knew something I didn't. Thanks for the replies. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Conway12 said:

Does anyone know why according to Baseball Reference Adam Frazier has been worth 1.1 WAR (a 2.8 WAR pace over 162 games placing him into the category of a solid starter) but, according to Fangraphs he has been worth 0.3 WAR (a 0.7 WAR pace making him a scrub)? Fangraphs also has him rated as the worst qualifying second baseman in all of baseball.

I know that the two sites calculate WAR differently, but they usually are much closer in line to each other in my experience. Every other position player on the roster is within a couple of tenths of WAR between the two sites. Seems odd that Frazier has such a large discrepancy. 

I'll be honest, up until this year, I've been a rWAR guy mainly because I find Baseball reference easier to navigate and work with and it was easily found. But there have been a few headscratchers this year and the Frazier difference has me really using fWAR more often for a more reliable WAR number. Frazier has been playable this year and his added pop this year has been a nice plus, but his defense has been underwhelming overall though he has made a couple of nice highlight plays.

Either way, there is no way I'm watching a 2.8 WAR level player with Frazier this season. Do I think he'd be a nice bench player on a good team, sure, he brings enough abilities and has good bat to ball skills that makes his bat fairly valuable late in games when the last thing you need is a K. 

Would I prefer to see Westburg play 2B at the major league level over him? That still remains a solid yes and has never changed since this offseason for me. Saying that, he's an upgrade over what Odor brought to the field.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

The eye test and OPS+ makes me feel that the Fangraphs WAR is more accurate. Frazier is a below average hitter/scrub, and Westburg would be an upgrade over him whenever Westburg is finally promoted.

You have a lot of belief in Westburg. I’m not sure if you are aware of it but, you are placing a lot of expectations on a player who is a borderline top 50 prospect. I hope that he is everything that you and others say and hope that he is. There have been a lot of lofty expectations created for him.

[interloper]

I dunno, I think a full season of what Frazier is doing (12-15 home runs, decent enough eye test defense) kind of feels like a high 1, low 2-ish WAR guy. 2.8 does seem pretty extreme, but I doubt he keeps this exact pace up. 

I know fWAR is generally thought to be more accurate, but I find that rWAR always fits my eye test better. 

All in all, I think he'll settle into a 1.0 rWAR guy at the end of the year. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by interloper

[Yossarian]

Say what you will about the light-hitting Frazier - he has the same number of home runs as Hays and one fewer than Rutschman on the season.   I don't know whether that says more about them or him?

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Yossarian said:

Say what you will about the light-hitting Frazier - he has the same number of home runs as Hays and one fewer than Rutschman on the season.   I don't know whether that says more about them or him?

Sure, but his OPS tells a different story. He's a guy who hitting a few home runs and not really much else offensively. 

[Brooks The Great]

52 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Say what you will about the light-hitting Frazier - he has the same number of home runs as Hays and one fewer than Rutschman on the season.   I don't know whether that says more about them or him?

Just looking at the home runs runs says very little about any of the players.

However, if you look at batting average, on base percentage, OPS, and OPS+, Frazier is a far inferior hitter to both Hays and Adley this season. 

Frazier is hitting .232 (terrible) with an OBP of .298 (terrible) and OPS of .694 (mediocre). His OPS+ is 93, so he's 7 percent below league average. At $8 million per year, that's poor value compared to Odor last season, and I wanted Odor off the team the entire season. Westburg could have and should have replaced Odor last season as well, and it might have been the difference in the Orioles making the playoffs.

Hays and Adley both have OPS's over 100 points higher than Frazier. Hays' OPS+ is 130 and Rutschman is at 126 OPS+ - they are both in a different stratosphere compared to Frazier. I have no idea why you would simply look at only home runs as a way of comparing Frazier to Hays and Rutschman. 

[amdcpus]

terrible signing, terrible player, terrible OBP and takes a roster spot away from someone in AAA who would otherwise be up here

[RarityFlaherty]

12 minutes ago, amdcpus said:

terrible signing, terrible player, terrible OBP and takes a roster spot away from someone in AAA who would otherwise be up here

For such a terrible player, he’s definitely been a big reason we’ve won a bunch of games. 

[RarityFlaherty]

So terrible. Time to cut him

[Yossarian]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, up until this year, I've been a rWAR guy mainly because I find Baseball reference easier to navigate and work with and it was easily found. But there have been a few headscratchers this year and the Frazier difference has me really using fWAR more often for a more reliable WAR number. Frazier has been playable this year and his added pop this year has been a nice plus, but his defense has been underwhelming overall though he has made a couple of nice highlight plays.

Either way, there is no way I'm watching a 2.8 WAR level player with Frazier this season. Do I think he'd be a nice bench player on a good team, sure, he brings enough abilities and has good bat to ball skills that makes his bat fairly valuable late in games when the last thing you need is a K. 

Would I prefer to see Westburg play 2B at the major league level over him? That still remains a solid yes and has never changed since this offseason for me. Saying that, he's an upgrade over what Odor brought to the field.

Frazier is reading this thread and is offended you discount his hitting ability.  He leads off the Blue Jays series with another jack.