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Gunnar Henderson 2023

Just Regular

By Just Regular
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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

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I don’t know why everyone keeps claiming Gunnar would be so much better with a robo-ump.  If you look at the umpire report cards, they usually miss less about 5-10 balls that they call strikes.  That would mean Gunnar might get one of those when you spread the odds over 18 batters.  Just don’t see it making that much of a difference.  If anything, his reputation for having a discerning eye could help him with regular umps to convince them borderline strikes are balls. 

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BohKnowsBmore
BohKnowsBmore

This is awkward, but are we married to the same woman?

Sports Guy
Sports Guy

He looks fine at the plate and even though he isn’t hitting lefties yet, he doesn’t look overmatched. He is hanging in there well. He has a 214 BABiP despite an exit velo at 85%. Last thing

btdart20
btdart20

Impressive!  And I'm glad she's in Gunnar's corner with that track record!

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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He needs to be batting 7th and not 3rd right now. 3rd will happen. I like that Hyde took a chance. Right now the lineup is struggling as a whole. We’re giving away a lot of ABs that we were grinding out earlier in the year. 
 

It seems like we went “super aggressive” versus Zack Grienke and then got stuck in that mode. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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2 hours ago, baltfan said:

I don’t know why everyone keeps claiming Gunnar would be so much better with a robo-ump.  If you look at the umpire report cards, they usually miss less about 5-10 balls that they call strikes.  That would mean Gunnar might get one of those when you spread the odds over 18 batters.  Just don’t see it making that much of a difference.  If anything, his reputation for having a discerning eye could help him with regular umps to convince them borderline strikes are balls. 

There would be lean towards "Good Eye" batters using the umps disproportionately.    I haven't yet encountered Ump Report Card results by batter, but I bet for example Ryan Mountcastle they are near perfect.     He swings at all the strikes, and most of the balls that are competitive pitches....there isn't much for them to do.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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31 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

There would be lean towards "Good Eye" batters using the umps disproportionately.    I haven't yet encountered Ump Report Card results by batter, but I bet for example Ryan Mountcastle they are near perfect.     He swings at all the strikes, and most of the balls that are competitive pitches....there isn't much for them to do.

I did see him get ripped off on an inside pitch yesterday.   

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Otter Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Otter

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It always seems like hitters with great eyes get screwed more by bad calls simply because they take a lot more pitches and therefore have a lot more opportunities for umpires to make bad calls.  I remember always thinking Reimold got hosed a lot more than just about any O's hitter I've seen.  And it certainly seems that way for Adley and Gunnar too.

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Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

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12 minutes ago, Otter said:

It always seems like hitters with great eyes get screwed more by bad calls simply because they take a lot more pitches and therefore have a lot more opportunities for umpires to make bad calls.  I remember always thinking Reimold got hosed a lot more than just about any O's hitter I've seen.  And it certainly seems that way for Adley and Gunnar too.

Nick Markakis used to get punished on called strike 3’s off the outside corner all the time. 

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ChuckS Hangout Grand Counsel

ChuckS

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16 minutes ago, Otter said:

It always seems like hitters with great eyes get screwed more by bad calls simply because they take a lot more pitches and therefore have a lot more opportunities for umpires to make bad calls.  I remember always thinking Reimold got hosed a lot more than just about any O's hitter I've seen.  And it certainly seems that way for Adley and Gunnar too.

The electronic strike zone, once implemented, would greatly benefit a team with selective hitters. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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27 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We've fallen as a team into a selectivity rut since Grienke.  

The Greinke game was May 3rd.

Through May 2, team Chase Rate was .313, 14th MLB wide.

Since May 3, team Chase Rate has been .333, 22nd.

I agree Greinke rated a custom game plan, and some of Last 10 Days has been Gunnar doing a course correction he needs to.

Better pitching opponents have been a factor; Chase Rate by Team Pitching it is no surprise ATL-TBR are beating KC by a few points.

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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6 hours ago, baltfan said:

I don’t know why everyone keeps claiming Gunnar would be so much better with a robo-ump.  If you look at the umpire report cards, they usually miss less about 5-10 balls that they call strikes.  That would mean Gunnar might get one of those when you spread the odds over 18 batters.  Just don’t see it making that much of a difference.

Even assuming it's just one extra strike per game, that makes a pretty big difference in that plate appearance. And there are only ~4 plate appearances per game. So even assuming it's just one missed ball, that makes a big difference in ~25% of his plate appearances.

I mentioned it previously, but a 1-1 pitch mistakenly going 1-2 and then forcing the hitter to protect a zone that he can't even clearly define is a pretty big deal. Especially for a guy whose approach is to work himself into favorable counts and walk if nothing presents itself.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

The Greinke game was May 3rd.

Through May 2, team Chase Rate was .313, 14th MLB wide.

Since May 3, team Chase Rate has been .333, 22nd.

I agree Greinke rated a custom game plan, and some of Last 10 Days has been Gunnar doing a course correction he needs to.

Better pitching opponents have been a factor; Chase Rate by Team Pitching it is no surprise ATL-TBR are beating KC by a few points.

Where do you get these splits?  I didn’t know they were available. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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I just use the Custom Date Range feature on Fangraphs.    Here's the one showing 22nd in Chase Rate since May 3.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-05-03&enddate=2023-05-15

Depending on how far down the rabbit hole one wants to go, its possible to poke around for Stuff+ on a daily basis, Swing rate changes last 5 days vs. last 10 days, Orioles SP stats since Cole Irvin was optioned, etc.

 

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e16bball Major Leaguer

e16bball

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31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where do you get these splits?  I didn’t know they were available. 

They are under the “pitch types” tab on the Fangraphs team stats page. The default is set to “stats” (in green), but you can toggle to the “pitch types” option instead.

After you click on “pitch types,” you have three options for measures of “plate discipline”: Sports Info Solutions, Statcast, and Pitch Type. 

Then you would just enter a “custom date range” in the section above the stat selector panel to break it down by specific frames of time.

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