Yennier Canó 2023

[Fiver6565]

Actually I think Big Ben said his arm slot was lower than usual, not higher. Hence he wasn’t getting downward action on the sinker. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

Actually I think Big Ben said his arm slot was lower than usual, not higher. Hence he wasn’t getting downward action on the sinker. 

This is correct.  The changeup has looked good but no sink on the fastball.

[Tony-OH]

Over his last 8 games, Cano has given up a hit in every appearance and only struck out 4 in 7.1 IP. Batters are slashing .345/.345/.655/1.000. The good news he's not walking anyone. 

Looking at his hard hit %, his sinker hard hit % has gone through the roof:

April: 30.8%
May: 40.6%
June: 53.8%
July: 54.5%

His Groundball % on both his sinker and changeup has dropped badly in July:
June Sinker: 73.3%
July Sinker: 45.5%

June Changeup: 75%
July Changeup: 37.5%

So batters are hitting him harder and hitting them less on the ground. That's not a good combination. 

The hard hit % getting worse each month is a bit of an indicator that the league has figured him out a bit especially with the fact that his sinker's vertical break has not gotten worse (avg 33 inches every month) so it's not sinking less. 

Ben McDonald has said he thinks Cano is dropping his arm down a little more and not getting the sink, but his vertical release on his sinker has been virtually the same all year going from 5.33 inches to 5.28 so a .05 inch difference.

I think it all comes down to him missing too much in the middle of the plate. Cano has only walked 6 batters all year so it may be a case of him throwing too many pitches in the heart of the plate with the sinker. 

So I guess the good news is the numbers don't suggest he's throwing differently or getting different movement. The bad news is he's got to get back getting that sinker down where he get more of those ground balls. 

Either way, nobody expected him to be as unhittable as he was early in the year, but I do think the league has made some adjustments to him and he's going to need to be more precise in order to get those valuable ground balls that made him so good.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Either way, nobody expected him to be as unhittable as he was early in the year, but I do think the league has made some adjustments to him and he's going to need to be more precise in order to get those valuable ground balls that made him so good.

First of all, awesome post. Thanks for doing the research. You should consider doing this gig full-time! 

The highlighted part is worth addressing. The league has made adjustments and he has to make adjustments back. One adjustment to be made might be to use him less. I think he's over exposed. I think he's proven that he is not a guy to use exclusively in the high leverage situations. I think they need to go out and get a guy who is better suited for the high leverage situations in front of Bautista. A guy who can occasionally spell Felix when they need a save and he is unavailable. Cano is not that guy.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Over his last 8 games, Cano has given up a hit in every appearance and only struck out 4 in 7.1 IP. Batters are slashing .345/.345/.655/1.000. The good news he's not walking anyone. 

Looking at his hard hit %, his sinker hard hit % has gone through the roof:

April: 30.8%
May: 40.6%
June: 53.8%
July: 54.5%

 

Also take a look at opposing OPS. The trend is rather alarming: .030 (April), .587 ((May), .716 (June), .906 (July). 

If his current 1.51 ERA is indicative of his overall value, he will be just fine. However, if the trend continues we are going to need to change his role. 

Another interesting number, he has a .472 vs RHB, .730 vs LHB. That is somewhat unusual for a guy whose out pitch is the changeup. Either Hyde needs to limit his opportunities vs LHB or he needs to figure out how to get that changeup working again. 

[Jagwar]

If Elias can get 1 or 2 solid relievers by the deadline, Hyde won't have to rely on Cano so much and will have options in the late innings. 

[RZNJ]

Cano’s stuff was lights out in the All-star game.  I’m not sure about the fatigue angle but I do believe it’s something to do with the arm angle or release point.   His changeup still seems to be there.  He’s starting to use his slider more but the hitter yesterday lifted a knee high outside slider for a liner to CF.   When he first came up it seemed like he just threw the ball and location wasn’t even that important because there was so much movement on every pitch.   He has continued to be a strike thrower but he’s gone from dominant setup man to at least he’ll keep us in the game setup man.

 

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Over his last 8 games, Cano has given up a hit in every appearance and only struck out 4 in 7.1 IP. Batters are slashing .345/.345/.655/1.000. The good news he's not walking anyone. 

Looking at his hard hit %, his sinker hard hit % has gone through the roof:

April: 30.8%
May: 40.6%
June: 53.8%
July: 54.5%

His Groundball % on both his sinker and changeup has dropped badly in July:
June Sinker: 73.3%
July Sinker: 45.5%

June Changeup: 75%
July Changeup: 37.5%

So batters are hitting him harder and hitting them less on the ground. That's not a good combination. 

The hard hit % getting worse each month is a bit of an indicator that the league has figured him out a bit especially with the fact that his sinker's vertical break has not gotten worse (avg 33 inches every month) so it's not sinking less. 

Ben McDonald has said he thinks Cano is dropping his arm down a little more and not getting the sink, but his vertical release on his sinker has been virtually the same all year going from 5.33 inches to 5.28 so a .05 inch difference.

I think it all comes down to him missing too much in the middle of the plate. Cano has only walked 6 batters all year so it may be a case of him throwing too many pitches in the heart of the plate with the sinker. 

So I guess the good news is the numbers don't suggest he's throwing differently or getting different movement. The bad news is he's got to get back getting that sinker down where he get more of those ground balls. 

Either way, nobody expected him to be as unhittable as he was early in the year, but I do think the league has made some adjustments to him and he's going to need to be more precise in order to get those valuable ground balls that made him so good.

Honestly wondering if a stint on the DL would help him get back to that guy. You wonder if the mechanical issue is caused by fatigue 

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly wondering if a stint on the DL would help him get back to that guy. You wonder if the mechanical issue is caused by fatigue 

The thing is, the numbers for movement and release don't show his stuff is different. Trust me, I was looking and while I don't have pitch plots per month (Maybe it's somewhere in baseball savant) but almost all of his hits on sinkers are when he's in the middle of the plate. Earlier in the year, he was getting some swing and miss there but no longer which suggest to me, they've seen him enough to make adjustments on the pitch movement. 

[interloper]

49 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

If Elias can get 1 or 2 solid relievers by the deadline, Hyde won't have to rely on Cano so much and will have options in the late innings. 

Yeah we need someone to alternate Cano with who is just as reliable.

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly wondering if a stint on the DL would help him get back to that guy. You wonder if the mechanical issue is caused by fatigue 

With the way our bullpen is currently set up could we survive a trip to the DL for him? As not so awesome as he has been lately, he is still one of our best most trusted relievers. You could try Coulombe into his role temporarily. But the 6th and 7th innings would become even more of a mess than they currently are. We really can’t afford to have the middle relief get any worse and still continue to win at our current pace IMO.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

First of all, awesome post. Thanks for doing the research. You should consider doing this gig full-time! 

The highlighted part is worth addressing. The league has made adjustments and he has to make adjustments back. One adjustment to be made might be to use him less. I think he's over exposed. I think he's proven that he is not a guy to use exclusively in the high leverage situations. I think they need to go out and get a guy who is better suited for the high leverage situations in front of Bautista. A guy who can occasionally spell Felix when they need a save and he is unavailable. Cano is not that guy.

I think Cano can still be effective overall, just not that shutdown guy you want in the 8th if the league has really adjusted. Now maybe Cano makes some adjustments back, but I do think this team needs another top end reliever or two to make me feel good late in games. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

With the way our bullpen is currently set up could we survive a trip to the DL for him? As not so awesome as he has been lately, he is still one of our best most trusted relievers. You could try Coulombe into his role temporarily. But the 6th and 7th innings would become even more of a mess than they currently are. We really can’t afford to have the middle relief get any worse and still continue to win at our current pace IMO.

Coulombe has a 5.68 ERA in July so it's not like he's pitching like he was either. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Coulombe has a 5.68 ERA in July so it's not like he's pitching like he was either. 

The numbers you just posted kind of back up the point that our margin for error is razor thin getting from starter to Bautista. I know Fujinama is the new toy and has great stuff. But I was not impressed with his poise at all yesterday. If that’s how he handles a little pressure in July, I can only imagine how he might handle October. IMO we at least need 1 maybe even 2 reliable relievers. You gotta be able to lock down the 7th. 8th, and 9th in the postseason. Relief pitching becomes even more magnified important in those spots.

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Over his last 8 games, Cano has given up a hit in every appearance and only struck out 4 in 7.1 IP. Batters are slashing .345/.345/.655/1.000. The good news he's not walking anyone. 

Looking at his hard hit %, his sinker hard hit % has gone through the roof:

April: 30.8%
May: 40.6%
June: 53.8%
July: 54.5%

His Groundball % on both his sinker and changeup has dropped badly in July:
June Sinker: 73.3%
July Sinker: 45.5%

June Changeup: 75%
July Changeup: 37.5%

So batters are hitting him harder and hitting them less on the ground. That's not a good combination. 

The hard hit % getting worse each month is a bit of an indicator that the league has figured him out a bit especially with the fact that his sinker's vertical break has not gotten worse (avg 33 inches every month) so it's not sinking less. 

Ben McDonald has said he thinks Cano is dropping his arm down a little more and not getting the sink, but his vertical release on his sinker has been virtually the same all year going from 5.33 inches to 5.28 so a .05 inch difference.

I think it all comes down to him missing too much in the middle of the plate. Cano has only walked 6 batters all year so it may be a case of him throwing too many pitches in the heart of the plate with the sinker. 

So I guess the good news is the numbers don't suggest he's throwing differently or getting different movement. The bad news is he's got to get back getting that sinker down where he get more of those ground balls. 

Either way, nobody expected him to be as unhittable as he was early in the year, but I do think the league has made some adjustments to him and he's going to need to be more precise in order to get those valuable ground balls that made him so good.

There is zero doubt his sinker isn’t moving like it was.  It used to look like a whiffle ball. You rarely see that now.  Perhaps even though the metrics are similar the movement used to be more abrupt and later.  I used to watch his pitches and think how can anyone hit that. That very rarely happens now.