Cade Povich 2023

[HuskerFan]

Another solid outing today.  Ran in to trouble in the 6th, which makes the boxscore look meh but it seems to me he got into a groove his last 4 starts, 5 of last 6 too.  Here's to hoping it carries over to the off-season. 

[btdart20]

Strong 10+% K% and not-so-good 5.8% BB%.  17.6% HR/FB ratio is rough.  It's tough with a high BB% and a high HR/FB. 

His AAA Pull% dropped to 37% and the Oppo% went up to 38%.  Either it's "professional" hitters or he's making them feel a bit uncomfortable.

FG has his average EV at 86 and LA at 11.3.  It would be nice to see what the EV is on certain types of hits (GB, LD, FB).  

His R/L splits look similar, except more SLG against R's. .225/.321/.406 vs. .222/.327/.318.

His last 4 games his opponents hit .169/.278/.195 against him.  0 HR.  29k/11BB in 21.2 IP for a very strong finish.  Progress/hope at least on the HR allowed front in the SSS window.

Removing his first game at AAA, he pitched in 9 games.  He held hitters to a .192/.304/.314 line.  He gave up 5 HRs (in the first 4 of those games) and walked 25 in those games.  Again, solid with a little large sample size.

Did his pitch mix change any in the last few games compared to earlier in the season?  

[Jim'sKid26]

To me, this guy is the biggest conundrum on the MiLB staff. Who is this guy? It seems like they want him to start but the BB #s are a real issue. His stat line also speaks to a guy who does not command the strike zone well. 

I have not seen him pitch, so I am relying on others who have. My gut tells me he's lucky he's left handed. But he does appear to miss bats and he does appear to be improving. I'll be fascinated to see where @Tony-OHputs him in the prospect rankings. 

[baltfan]

His minor league numbers are reminiscent of Bradish in terms of walk rate.  He strikes out more guys though and gives up fewer hits.  Isn’t he also a guy that gets lots of his outs with breaking balls and has a relatively average fastball?

[Tony-OH]

Last six starts of the season for him:

The walks are still too high (15.4%) but guys weren't hitting him much. 

[Sanity Check]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Last six starts of the season for him:

The walks are still too high (15.4%) but guys weren't hitting him much. 

They might refer to that as being "effectively wild."

I saw him pitch one game this year, and he was his own worst enemy  by walking guys.  I think it was the 3rd inning, he walked the first two batters (the #8 and #9 batters in the lineup), then got an out, gave up a single to load the bases, and then a grand slam.  He does need to get a lot more consistent in the strike zone and reduce the walks to make it in the bigs. 

[RZNJ]

Per Baseball America

 

16. Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles

Age: 23

Hot Sheet Appearances: 3

The Scoop: Pitchers earn spots on the Hot Sheet by having dominating outings. Povich finished the season with a 5.04 ERA. That does not seem to be the ERA you would expect for a pitcher who made three different Hot Sheet appearances. But when Povich was rolling, hitters had little chance. Povich struck out 171 batters in just 126.2 innings. He had three different outings where he reached double digits in strikeouts without allowing a run. Twice it came in games where he allowed just one hit in five-plus innings. Those three outings earned him three different spots on the Hot Sheet, and also offer hints of what he could offer the Orioles in the future. (JJ) 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Per Baseball America

 

16. Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles

Age: 23

Hot Sheet Appearances: 3

The Scoop: Pitchers earn spots on the Hot Sheet by having dominating outings. Povich finished the season with a 5.04 ERA. That does not seem to be the ERA you would expect for a pitcher who made three different Hot Sheet appearances. But when Povich was rolling, hitters had little chance. Povich struck out 171 batters in just 126.2 innings. He had three different outings where he reached double digits in strikeouts without allowing a run. Twice it came in games where he allowed just one hit in five-plus innings. Those three outings earned him three different spots on the Hot Sheet, and also offer hints of what he could offer the Orioles in the future. (JJ) 

What do the numbers before his name mean. He's #16 of what?

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What do the numbers before his name mean. He's #16 of what?

It’s a list of prospects who made their hot sheet multiple times.   A couple guys made it 6 times.  The players who made it 3 times starts around #12.   Not sure if it’s just random order after that or not.

[HuskerFan]

Here's a breakdown of his stat cast in AAA with (velo average).  

Game 1 v Nashville:  27 FB (91.8), 14 CT (87.9), 9 CH (83.5), 5 CB (74.6), 4 SW (79.2).  He was really bad this outing.  

Game 2 v Charlotte:  30 FB (92.2), 23 CT (88.2), 14 CH (84.3), 13 CB (75.8) 4 SW (81.8).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Game 3 @ Jacksonville:  33 FB (92.5), 16 CT (88.2), 11 CH (84.1), 5 CB (76.1), 4 SW (79.9).  5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

Game 4 @ Memphis:  21 FB (92.6), 8 CT (88.7), 17 CH (84.1), 5 CB (75.5), 3 SW (79.5).  He was really bad this outing.  

Game 5 v Durham:  43 FB (92.3), 10 CT (88.2), 17 CH (84.5), 13 CB (76.3), 6 SW (80.7).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K

Game 6 v @ Worchester:  40 FB (92.4), 6 CT (87.9), 8 CH (83.8), 9 CB(76.6), 10 SW (81.8).  Didn't get out of the 3rd. 

Game 7 @ Worchester:  38 FB (92.6), 13 CT (87.3), 9 CH (83.7), 15 CB (75.1), 20 SW (82.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. 

Game 8 v Jacksonville:  49 FB (92.9), 17 CT (87.6), 9 CH (83.6), 12 CB (75.7), 10 SW (81.2).  5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K

Game 9 v Memphis:  48 FB (92.7), 19 CT (87.4), 10 CH (83.3), 11 CB (75.1), 11 SW (81.5).  6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Game 10 @ Buffalo:  51 FB (91.5), 23 CT (87.3), 7 CH (84.7), 5 CB (75.7), 12 SW (81.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K.  (2 ER & 1 BB was in the 6th)

 

7 outings:  38.2 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 19 BB, 44 K.  

3 outings:  Really bad.  

[btdart20]

23 minutes ago, HuskerFan said:

Here's a breakdown of his stat cast in AAA with (velo average).  

Game 1 v Nashville:  27 FB (91.8), 14 CT (87.9), 9 CH (83.5), 5 CB (74.6), 4 SW (79.2).  He was really bad this outing.  30.8% BB% and 43.5% LOB%

Game 2 v Charlotte:  30 FB (92.2), 23 CT (88.2), 14 CH (84.3), 13 CB (75.8) 4 SW (81.8).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K    5% and 50%

Game 3 @ Jacksonville:  33 FB (92.5), 16 CT (88.2), 11 CH (84.1), 5 CB (76.1), 4 SW (79.9).  5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K  10% and 87%

Game 4 @ Memphis:  21 FB (92.6), 8 CT (88.7), 17 CH (84.1), 5 CB (75.5), 3 SW (79.5).  He was really bad this outing.  14.3% and 0%

Game 5 v Durham:  43 FB (92.3), 10 CT (88.2), 17 CH (84.5), 13 CB (76.3), 6 SW (80.7).  6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K    21.7% and 100%

Game 6 v @ Worchester:  40 FB (92.4), 6 CT (87.9), 8 CH (83.8), 9 CB(76.6), 10 SW (81.8).  Didn't get out of the 3rd.    23.5% and 45.5%

Game 7 @ Worchester:  38 FB (92.6), 13 CT (87.3), 9 CH (83.7), 15 CB (75.1), 20 SW (82.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K.    9.5% and 50%

Game 8 v Jacksonville:  49 FB (92.9), 17 CT (87.6), 9 CH (83.6), 12 CB (75.7), 10 SW (81.2).  5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K    16.7% and 83.3%

Game 9 v Memphis:  48 FB (92.7), 19 CT (87.4), 10 CH (83.3), 11 CB (75.1), 11 SW (81.5).  6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K   9.1% and 100%

Game 10 @ Buffalo:  51 FB (91.5), 23 CT (87.3), 7 CH (84.7), 5 CB (75.7), 12 SW (81.1).  5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K.  (2 ER & 1 BB was in the 6th)   13% and 50%

 

7 outings:  38.2 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 19 BB, 44 K.  

3 outings:  Really bad.  

I added BB% and LOB% in your comment just to add a bit more.

 

If you're not familiar, Savant has some AAA data available at the game level.

Cade Povich Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

[HuskerFan]

30 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I added BB% and LOB% in your comment just to add a bit more.

 

If you're not familiar, Savant has some AAA data available at the game level.

Cade Povich Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

 

Thank you.  I'm not overly familiar with it, but I'm still learning from my 13-year old grandson.  He's in to this stuff and breaks down all former Huskers for me.  

I'm just glad this community has accepted a bandwagon O's fan, but diehard, loyal & biased Husker fan.  My wife isn't too thrilled at the number of Orioles games we're watching but I'm hopeful she'll get over it as the stretch is here with playoffs around the corner.  Exciting times for Birdland.  

[RZNJ]

I guess he can be successful at 92 mph but Iike his chances a lot better at 94-95 mph.   There’s no doubt he’s got room to get stronger.   Whether that result in increased velocity is another story.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, HuskerFan said:

 

Thank you.  I'm not overly familiar with it, but I'm still learning from my 13-year old grandson.  He's in to this stuff and breaks down all former Huskers for me.  

I'm just glad this community has accepted a bandwagon O's fan, but diehard, loyal & biased Husker fan.  My wife isn't too thrilled at the number of Orioles games we're watching but I'm hopeful she'll get over it as the stretch is here with playoffs around the corner.  Exciting times for Birdland.  

I bet she’ll get excited when Povich is wearing black and orange next year at some point!

[HuskerFan]

15 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I bet she’ll get excited when Povich is wearing black and orange next year at some point!

She's a football fan, and likely couldn't tell you how many outs are in a game.  But, she's a trooper. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by HuskerFan