Cade Povich 2023

[MurphDogg]

11 minutes ago, panick said:

Do you really think Johnson might be the first man up next year? Is this the same Seth Johnson that pitched 27 innings last year in the High-A level. The one who is recovering from TJ surgery? 

Depends on how soon they need a starter and how he recovers from the surgery, but he will be 25 and unlike the other two, will be on the 40-man roster.

I doubt they would have traded for him and carried him on the 40-man roster all off-season (with plans to do so again in the 2023-24 offseason) if they didn't expect him to be an option in 2024.

[bluedog]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Depends on how soon they need a starter and how he recovers from the surgery, but he will be 25 and unlike the other two, will be on the 40-man roster.

I doubt they would have traded for him and carried him on the 40-man roster all off-season (with plans to do so again in the 2023-24 offseason) if they didn't expect him to be an option in 2024.

Love the depth, but we have a logjam brewing. If Means fully recovers and is effective at the end of this year and Wells bounces back from his recent spate of bad starts, then we have Means, Wells, Kremer, Bradish and GRod all vying for (expecting?) rotation spots. If the O's sign a FA starter then there's even less opportunity for Povich, etc.

It will be fascinating to see how Elias constructs the rotation next year.

[Just Regular]

I'm hoping things go well enough Seth Johnson becomes the somewhat rare talented pitcher whose Club wants him to work in a SP1 role as much as he can during the Arizona Fall League.

I'm starting to wonder if John Means will be any further along than that by October.

[HuskerFan]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Twice consecutively would be nice.  It doesn’t even need to be this good, just pretty good.  That hasn’t happened all year. 

 

I'm curious what your definition of pretty good is.  

July 8 - 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

July 16 -  5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

If that's not pretty good, then I'm not sure we'd ever be on the same page.  He had a horrible first outing for Norfolk at the end of July, but his numbers were "pretty good" for the entire month which totaled 4 starts in Bowie.   

 

I'm with you on the inconsistency though, it's mind numbing.  I'm almost wondering if he's struggling on the every 6 days and hasn't figured that out.  He was every 7 days at Nebraska, and I believe JUCO when I checked out his numbers when he committed.  There is some talk on Husker boards that he signed up with Tread very recently.  I'm going to keep a close eye on that.  As a casual fan, everything Povich does seems effortless and it looks like he has more in the tank.      

 

[Tony-OH]

Povich has a ways to go to show consistency before he's a major league starter option. His fastball, cutter, curveball and sweeper all have above average spin rates from what I can see and we've seen when he getting ahead, he can be very, very tough to hit. 

He threw 63% fastball (60% in zone) and cutters (52% in Zone) in this games so the plan was probably to increase his command of those two offerings. The cutter got hit pretty hard the two times it was put in play, but clearly that's a small sample size and cutters typical get hit hard when they are not commanded.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, HuskerFan said:

 

I'm curious what your definition of pretty good is.  

July 8 - 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

July 16 -  5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

If that's not pretty good, then I'm not sure we'd ever be on the same page.  He had a horrible first outing for Norfolk at the end of July, but his numbers were "pretty good" for the entire month which totaled 4 starts in Bowie.   

 

I'm with you on the inconsistency though, it's mind numbing.  I'm almost wondering if he's struggling on the every 6 days and hasn't figured that out.  He was every 7 days at Nebraska, and I believe JUCO when I checked out his numbers when he committed.  There is some talk on Husker boards that he signed up with Tread very recently.  I'm going to keep a close eye on that.  As a casual fan, everything Povich does seems effortless and it looks like he has more in the tank.      

 

I guess I overlooked that one, since with the all star break, there were 8 days between outings.  Those outings both meet my definition of good.  

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, bluedog said:

Love the depth, but we have a logjam brewing. If Means fully recovers and is effective at the end of this year and Wells bounces back from his recent spate of bad starts, then we have Means, Wells, Kremer, Bradish and GRod all vying for (expecting?) rotation spots. If the O's sign a FA starter then there's even less opportunity for Povich, etc.

It will be fascinating to see how Elias constructs the rotation next year.

Irvin?  A logjam of starters next year?  Who woulda thunk it?

Edited August 4, 2023 by RZNJ

[George Zuverink]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Irvin?  A logjam of starters next year?  Who woulda thunk it?

“Logjam” is becoming one of my favorite words.

[bluedog]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Irvin?  A logjam of starters next year?  Who woulda thunk it?

I don't think Irvin sniffs the rotation next year short of injuries. I think he's long lefty out of the pen more or less permanently.

But yeah - starter logjam is crazy. Even crazier, all five of them were either drafted or acquired by waivers, rule 5 or trade when they were in the minors and developed! 

[bluedog]

1 hour ago, George Zuverink said:

“Logjam” is becoming one of my favorite words.

There is a scenario where next year we have Pham, McDermott & Povich all at AAA pitching lights out and creating the same issue we have with positional depth on the pitching side.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, bluedog said:

There is a scenario where next year we have Pham, McDermott & Povich all at AAA pitching lights out and creating the same issue we have with positional depth on the pitching side.

I am skeptical on all 3 but strength in numbers.

[CaptainRedbeard]

It’s virtually impossible to have too much starting pitching, and it’s very important to have a constant quality pipeline of minor league SP that you can call upon when injuries test your depth. The attrition rate is just so massive between injuries & effectiveness that perennially competitive teams all have that pipeline. Hopefully Povich is part of the start of that pipeline developing here.

The Orioles have been very fortunate with their SP health this season (knock on wood). You’re essentially guaranteed to need at least 6 SP in a season. Going into next year, they should have Bradish, Grayson and Means as rotation locks, and Kremer and Wells have options. Irvin will be out of options and is a good fit in the pen as the long man / swing starter.

So they should add at least one SP pushing Kremer and Wells into SP5/6, and could even accommodate adding another SP on top of that given both having options. Particularly if Wells and Hall shape up to be more bullpen pieces going forward, depending on how the rest of the season goes. Povich and McDermott should slot in behind them in 2024, and then we just go from there.

[Just Regular]

BP with some arsenal analysis using two of his AAA games:

Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Listed Height: 6-foot-3
Listed Weight: 185 pounds
DOB (Age): April 12, 2000 (23)
Rank: 174

Statcast Pitch Data: 7/28, 8/3

Pitch	Velo	Spin	Vert	Horiz	Total	%	Strike%	Whiff%	CSW%
4-Seam Fastball	92.0	2288	15.9	9.7	57	39.9	54.4	23.5	31.6
Cutter	88.1	2422	26.3	-2.3	37	25.9	64.9	27.8	29.7
Changeup	84.0	1942	30.1	13.7	23	16.1	60.9	36.4	30.4
Curveball	75.5	2417	64.1	-11.0	18	12.6	61.1	40.0	44.4
Sweeper	80.5	2357	41.8	-14.5	8	5.6	62.5	75.0	50.0

The Orioles quietly acquired Povich from the Twins in the Jorge López trade. While he lacks an impact fastball, he boasts an impressive arsenal of secondaries. His cutter is similar to the cutters of Matt Strahm and Wade Miley, both of which are solid-average offerings. Povich’s changeup has solid velocity and vertical movement separation from his fastball. Both his curveball and sweeper have good depth and sweep. All four secondaries project as average or better offerings. It is not the sexiest profile, but Povich has No. 4 starter upside with sneaky bat-missing potential (32.4% K% this year).

[Just Regular]

Mega disaster tonight - I think similar to Mayo he's played his way out of whatever cup of coffee chance there might have been with a big finish.     They can't all blow through several levels a year.

[btdart20]

Woof.

Pitcher Game Visualization Report | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

26 of 54 pitches out of the strike zone.  And his misses were not competitive at all.