Jud Fabian 2023

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I don't think anyone thought Fabian would be fast to the majors. The big knock against him on (both) draft day(s) was that there were major holes in his swing that led to serious hit tool questions. Now, the Orioles are pretty good at fixing this sort of thing, but overhauling a swing is a slow process. Maybe he'll make it and maybe he won't, but I think we've been spoiled by the number of prospects we have that have just flown through the minors.

Fabian might need a whole year at AA. It's not the end of him as a prospect if he does. Let's not forget he climbed to AA in a year after being drafted (granted he was a senior sign).

Good post.  I’m happy with his progress.    

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[Alasdaire]

3 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

The area beyond the outfield being a parking lot is some kind of ugly.

[catjuggler]

11 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The area beyond the outfield being a parking lot is some kind of ugly.

Quote

He hit it to 1975

 

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

The area beyond the outfield being a parking lot is some kind of ugly.

It's a great stadium but you're right, that's ugly. 

They do have a $2.5 billion development project for that area coming called the "Diamond District" with a new stadium set to open by 2025.

[Frobby]

I’m glad he’s hitting some homers, but Fabian has really been struggling.  Going into tonight he’d hit .116 over his last 110 PA with 46 K’s.  

Edited August 9, 2023 by Frobby

[Yossarian]

4 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

The area beyond the outfield being a parking lot is some kind of ugly.

That parking lot is sponsored by Safelight Auto Glass repair shop.

[Jagwar]

Statcast says that HR travelled to a 2006 Toyota Corolla

[LookinUp]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m glad he’s hitting some homers, but Fabian has really been struggling.  Going into tonight he’d hit .116 over his last 110 PA with 46 K’s.  

Yeah. The shine is off a little right now. The old issues are creeping up. 

At this point, I think he's the type who needs to grind through this season, hopefully doing better than he has lately, and then get back to work on the fundamentals in the offseason. Making major improvements to a hitting profile usually takes time, so I'm not too bothered by this. I just think some put the cart before the horse on his prospect status. I'd say he's more likely to be a McKenna level FV (not profile, just 35-40ish FV) than a first division starting CF. That's useful, and his power profile is intriguing, but he still has major steps to take to be the all around hitter we all hope he can. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's hard. 

If any development staff can get him there, it's the O's.

Edited August 9, 2023 by LookinUp

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m glad he’s hitting some homers, but Fabian has really been struggling.  Going into tonight he’d hit .116 over his last 110 PA with 46 K’s.  

Yep, it's been bad. Like worse than Zach Watson second year in Bowie bad. 

I guess they needed him to fail so he will work on some things. hopefully he'll bounce back but his complete struggles are a bit of a concern.

[Gurgi]

So I see him tumbling down the prospect ranking list from your comments.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Gurgi said:

So I see him tumbling down the prospect ranking list from your comments.

To the extent Tony's power rankings are a reflection of real-time production, he should tumble a bit.

To the extent Tony's offseason prospect rankings are about who you want in the org, overall profile and future probabilities, you can still argue he belongs quite high.

We shouldn't over react to small samples, good or bad. It just so happens that this year Fabian has had very good and very bad SSS periods, so there have been big reactions. I still like the kid and think this offseason will give him some hope of figuring things out some more and having a solid average overall offensive profile. Add to good/plus defense and you have a good player on your hands.

[LookinUp]

And I look forward to Tony's write-up, because I'm commenting here from my basement in my underwear based on very imperfect information. Well, I'm not just in underwear, but you get the point. 

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

To the extent Tony's power rankings are a reflection of real-time production, he should tumble a bit.

To the extent Tony's offseason prospect rankings are about who you want in the org, overall profile and future probabilities, you can still argue he belongs quite high.

We shouldn't over react to small samples, good or bad. It just so happens that this year Fabian has had very good and very bad SSS periods, so there have been big reactions. I still like the kid and think this offseason will give him some hope of figuring things out some more and having a solid average overall offensive profile. Add to good/plus defense and you have a good player on your hands.

His entire AA sample has him batting .161.  Honestly, 110 PA is too big a sample to ever be hitting 116.   And when you’re striking out 40% of the time, it’s not batted ball luck that’s the issue.  

To be clear, I’m still interested in Fabian and by no means am I writing I’m off.   But I’m VERY concerned with how his summer has gone.  
 

[btdart20]

The K% is a concern, no doubt.  40% isn't sustainable at any level.

His FB% jumped from 35.3% to 58.7% moving from A+ to AA while his LD% tanked to 12% from 24.1%.  I haven't seen too many of his ABs this year, but those stats seem to show a concerted effort for power. 

FWIW, he had some dramatic changes in his batted ball ratios when moving from Delmarva to Aberdeen last year too.