Jud Fabian 2023

[Alasdaire]

37 minutes ago, Otter said:

Agreed.  Have to give a lot of credit to our player development and minor league hitting coaches.  They've done an outstanding job developing a number of hitting prospects.  On the other hand, the pitching development has been terrible...disappointment so far with tremendous talents like Hall and Rodriguez, and no other high upside starting pitchers in our system right now...

Most of the high-profile arms in the organization were inherited and not hand-picked by the current front office. They have a model that produces certain types for them they know they can develop, and there's a good chance that for as talented as Grayson/Hall are, they wouldn't have been chosen by the FO because they don't fit the mold.

[deward]

3 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Most of the high-profile arms in the organization were inherited and not hand-picked by the current front office. They have a model that produces certain types for them they know they can develop, and there's a good chance that for as talented as Grayson/Hall are, they wouldn't have been chosen by the FO because they don't fit the mold.

It seems very clear that Elias would not have spent two first round picks on high school pitchers. Or any pitchers.

[Alasdaire]

1 hour ago, deward said:

It seems very clear that Elias would not have spent two first round picks on high school pitchers. Or any pitchers.

Only thing I'll say to that is that the slots where we picked GRod (11th) and DL (21st) don't offer generational talent or costs savings like top-5 picks do. I'm not holding my breath, but maybe the board becomes more expansive now that we're picking further down the table at 17.

[Mr-splash]

19 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Only thing I'll say to that is that the slots where we picked GRod (11th) and DL (21st) don't offer generational talent or costs savings like top-5 picks do. I'm not holding my breath, but maybe the board becomes more expansive now that we're picking further down the table at 17.

Strasburg and Cole 1st overall. Verlander 2nd overall. Greinke 6th overall. Kershaw and Fried 7th overall. Scherzer 11th overall. Does appear that drafting in the top 10 is pretty important if the objective is a frontline generational starter. Though DeGrom was a 9th rounder! Basically you have to pray you get a DeGrom or you're in a large market and just pay for it. Or roll the dice and take the longshot and hope the guy with the big arm is the real deal.

[Frobby]

 

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Strasburg and Cole 1st overall. Verlander 2nd overall. Greinke 6th overall. Kershaw and Fried 7th overall. Scherzer 11th overall. Does appear that drafting in the top 10 is pretty important if the objective is a frontline generational starter. Though DeGrom was a 9th rounder! Basically you have to pray you get a DeGrom or you're in a large market and just pay for it. Or roll the dice and take the longshot and hope the guy with the big arm is the real deal.

10 years is enough to see who's a stud and who's a dud, I'll counter cherry-pick the 2013 MLB draft.

1.1 Appel - dud

1.3 Jon Gray - stud

1.4 Kohl Stewart - dud

1.7 Trey Ball - dud

1.10 Phillip Bickford - dud

1.15 Braden Shipley - dud

1.18 Chris Anderson - dud

1.19 Marco Gonzales - stud?

1.20 Jonathon Crawfor - dud

1.22 Hunter Harvey - stud?  How does an O's fan classify this one?

1.23 Chi Chi Gonzalez - stud?

Rob Kaminsky, Ryne Stanek, Jason Hursh...  All picked before Judge at 1.32.

This feels like a pretty bad draft class.  2014 looks a bit better with Gausman, Fried, and Heaney.  But Zimmer, Appel, and Travieso were misses in the top 15.  Cherry-pick at your own risk.

Book excerpt: Why it’s still a bad idea to draft high school pitchers in the first round - The Athletic

[seak05]

Norby, Cowser, and Mayo were all promoted to double a on June 27th last year. Going by that timetable one would think June 26th might be the day, maybe with Holliday? And/or Wagner/Beaver 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Norby, Cowser, and Mayo were all promoted to double a on June 27th last year. Going by that timetable one would think June 26th might be the day, maybe with Holliday? And/or Wagner/Beaver 

Just a reminder of their numbers at the time: 

Mayo 288 PA, .821 OPS

Cowser 278 PA, .795 OPS

Norby 209 PA, .736 OPS

Norby had missed several weeks after being hit in the face by a pitch, hence the lower PA and arguably the depressed OPS.  He had a .634 OPS in 100 PA after returning from the HBP.  The O’s said at the time that their metrics indicated he was ready, and he proved them right by doing well at Bowie.

Current figures at Aberdeen: 

Holliday 171 PA, 1.006 OPS

Fabian 212 PA, .918 OPS

Wagner 209 PA, .743 OPS

Beavers 217 PA, .682 OPS

In my mind, Fabian is the most likely to receive a promotion by June 26.   He’s a college guy, having an excellent year, and he’s been getting better as he goes along.   Holliday, Wagner and Beavers have not hit well of late, so we’ll see what they do the next two weeks.  For the record: 

Holliday .641 OPS the last 15 games

Wagner .537 OPS the last 11 games   

Beavers .569 OPS the last 32 games

We know from last year’s Norby promotion that the O’s don’t just look at slash line type stats.   So, we’ll see.  

[Alasdaire]

How about this line tonight in the leadoff spot: four walks and a double (1/2) plus his 19th stolen base (stole third).

[ChosenOne21]

More like Stud Fabian, amirite?

[sportsfan8703]

On 6/12/2023 at 7:40 PM, Frobby said:

Just a reminder of their numbers at the time: 

Mayo 288 PA, .821 OPS

Cowser 278 PA, .795 OPS

Norby 209 PA, .736 OPS

Norby had missed several weeks after being hit in the face by a pitch, hence the lower PA and arguably the depressed OPS.  He had a .634 OPS in 100 PA after returning from the HBP.  The O’s said at the time that their metrics indicated he was ready, and he proved them right by doing well at Bowie.

Current figures at Aberdeen: 

Holliday 171 PA, 1.006 OPS

Fabian 212 PA, .918 OPS

Wagner 209 PA, .743 OPS

Beavers 217 PA, .682 OPS

In my mind, Fabian is the most likely to receive a promotion by June 26.   He’s a college guy, having an excellent year, and he’s been getting better as he goes along.   Holliday, Wagner and Beavers have not hit well of late, so we’ll see what they do the next two weeks.  For the record: 

Holliday .641 OPS the last 15 games

Wagner .537 OPS the last 11 games   

Beavers .569 OPS the last 32 games

We know from last year’s Norby promotion that the O’s don’t just look at slash line type stats.   So, we’ll see.  

Good post. I would expect them all to be pushed to Bowie around the same time. Especially since it will put them on track to play in the AFL. 

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Paul in Virginia

[Frobby]

He threw out a runner at the plate, too.   

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He threw out a runner at the plate, too.   

SCUD Fabian

[Tony-OH]

On 6/11/2023 at 6:06 PM, RZNJ said:

Fabian hit .229 and .239 two years in a row in college.  Forget all of the other theories.   That puts doubt into any potential pro team, including the Orioles.   That’s why he lasted until 67.  Remember also that Beavers and Wagner are almost a full year younger.

What his averages tell me is that if my young hitter was considering UCF under that coaching staff, I'd tell him to consider elsewhere. Watching Fabian hit in the pros makes me wonder how he ever could have hit that poorly against college pitching.