Comings and Goings over the next year

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think Hays, Santander and Mountcastle are all questionable long term pieces.  Not that they do not have value, but I could see any of them supplanted from the roster.

I think as they approach FA they will be traded.  Santander this off season.  Hays after 2024.  Mountcastle may not be until after 2025.  

People seem down on the established players but they are performing.  And the team is winning because of it.    The way Elias talks I think he understands that.  

The rookies are going to have beat this guys out to get their jobs.

[maybenxtyr]

Definitely appreciate the effort, but I think it's way too early and exciting of a season to try and predict what will happen next year.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Definitely appreciate the effort, but I think it's way too early and exciting of a season to try and predict what will happen next year.

Its exciting and I think it stays exciting.  The O's are a deep team.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mountcastle is on pace for a big year.   36 homers and 116 RBI.  I don't expect him to keep that up but if he does 30 and 100 there are not trading him no matter what is OBP may be.

There’s more to being a good offensive player than homers, and RBI are significantly affected by opportunity.  Bat 3rd behind Cedric and Rutschman, and you are going to get more RBI opportunities than the average player.

In fact, we know that the average player with 183 PA has had 111 runners on base and driven in 21.   Mountcastle has had 129 runners on base and has driven in 29.   So some of his high RBI total comes from having more opportunities than average, some comes from him doing a better than average job of cashing them in so far.  He’s been RISPy, posting an .843 OPS with runners in scoring position, .780 with runners on,  .743 with bases empty.   That’s a game 42 snapshot and who knows where he ends up.  He’s a guy who had 18 RBI in his first 11 games (9 in one game) but also has had streaks of 10 and 8 games without an RBI.  He could go any direction from here.  
 

[Frobby]

Also, need I remind you that Tony Batista  once had 26 homers and 99 RBI with a .270 OBP for this team. 

[fansince1988]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Also, need I remind you that Tony Batista  once had 26 homers and 99 RBI with a .270 OBP for this team. 

T-Bat reference, I wasn't sure if I'd ever see one again. 

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There’s more to being a good offensive player than homers, and RBI are significantly affected by opportunity.  Bat 3rd behind Cedric and Rutschman, and you are going to get more RBI opportunities than the average player.
 

Tonight.  Bases loaded with no one out.  How did Vavra and Ortiz do with their opportunities?  Mullins on second, no outs.  At least Rutschman moved him over, but he didn’t drive him in.  Mullins on third, one out.  Santander strikes out.  Opportunities in prime RBI situations wasted. Two outs, Mountcastle singles and drives in the first run of the game.  Then hustles to third on Henderson’s single to short center.  Hays with a runner on third and two outs.  Strike out.

For me, Mountcastle is part of the future.

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by NCRaven

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Tonight.  Bases loaded with no one out.  How did Vavra and Ortiz do with their opportunities?  Mullins on second, no outs.  At least Rutschman moved him over, but he didn’t drive him in.  Mullins on third, one out.  Santander strikes out.  Opportunities in prime RBI situations wasted. Two outs, Mountcastle singles and drives in the first run of the game.  Then hustles to third on Henderson’s single to short center.  Hays with a runner on third and two outs.  Strike out.

For me, Mountcastle is part of the future.

 

I'm on board with reevaluating his future when he hits Arb2.

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm on board with reevaluating his future when he hits Arb2.

I think you evaluate your players and roster constantly.  I have no problem with that and would expect nothing less for Mountcastle or any other player.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think you evaluate your players and roster constantly.  I have no problem with that and would expect nothing less for Mountcastle or any other player.

Of course, but for me I'm inclined to keep him at an Arb1 price point.  Arb2 I think is an interesting decision.

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course, but for me I'm inclined to keep him at an Arb1 price point.  Arb2 I think is an interesting decision.

Don’t disagree.  But, we certainly have room in the budget if he earns a significant Arb 2 salary.

[wildcard]

I don't think Elias has a problem for Arb 2.    But he does not like to see players walk to nothing.  And its going to take a special player to get a 3 year or more extension from him.  JMO