If you were Adley, what contract terms would you agree to today if offered?

[Billy F-Face3]

I don't know if anyone has seen this article from last year, but I think it's helpful to the topic...

https://birdswatcher.com/2022/08/19/adley-rutschman-extension-orioles/

 

Quote

 

After carefully combing through the information, I present to you an educated guess as to what Adley Rutschman’s potential contract extension could look like:

• 2023: $6,000,000
• 2024: $7,500,000
• 2025: $12,500,000
• 2026: $18,000,000
• 2027: $24,000,000
• 2028: $24,000,000
• 2029: $27,500,000
• 2030: $27,500,000

Total: 8 years, $147 million ($18.375 million AAV)

Rutschman will earn a full year of service time if he finishes in the top two in AL Rookie of the Year voting and considering his play, that is beginning to look like a formality. In that case, this extension would negate the remaining two years of making the minimum and his three arbitration years as well as “buying out” the first three years of his would-be free agency; the additional salary in 2023 and 2024 alone would pay Rutschman roughly $12 million more than he would earn playing for the minimum salary.

An eight year deal would also see Rutschman become a free agent at the age of 33 and while not guaranteed, it is entirely plausible that Rutschman will still be a valuable player who could continue to play and earn more money.

 

 

[Billy F-Face3]

If I was the Orioles, I would probably flip that and front load it. We know what Adley is providing now, but we don't know what will happen that far in the future and it's always good to have some wiggle room to operate the rest of the team while other young stars are going to require extensions as well.

[Sports Guy]

That’s basically the contract Frobby suggested. It’s a fair offer but I think it’s highly unlikely he will accept it.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If I was the Orioles, I would probably flip that and front load it. We know what Adley is providing now, but we don't know what will happen that far in the future and it's always good to have some wiggle room to operate the rest of the team while other young stars are going to require extensions as well.

Future money is worth less than present money.

Does 100 bucks go as far today as it did even three years ago?

It very rarely makes sense to front load a contact.  When you give a player a signing bonus you are essentially front loading the contract.

[Mr-splash]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Future money is worth less than present money.

Does 100 bucks go as far today as it did even three years ago?

It very rarely makes sense to front load a contact.  When you give a player a signing bonus you are essentially front loading the contract.

It made sense to front load in the 1930s lol! 

[Sports Guy]

300+M..this just isn’t based on any reality.

[flaoriolesfan]

On 5/20/2023 at 12:22 PM, Sports Guy said:

So, are you saying to give him a 4/155ish extension?

That’s a huge amount for a catcher playing the first year of that extension at age 30

I understand what you are saying and I love some of the proposals being thrown around like 8/147 or 10/200 but most of us seem to agree that he will most likely not accept these offers and I was thinking of a number for us that he maybe would agree on. I just want to have him for at least 8 more years and what do we think his market value will be in 3,4 or 5 years from now, I'll bet it will be a lot. The dude is obviously going to get paid big time!

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, flaoriolesfan said:

I understand what you are saying and I love some of the proposals being thrown around like 8/147 or 10/200 but most of us seem to agree that he will most likely not accept these offers and I was thinking of a number for us that he maybe would agree on. I just want to have him for at least 8 more years and what do we think his market value will be in 3,4 or 5 years from now, I'll bet it will be a lot. The dude is obviously going to get paid big time!

I don’t understand why people keep saying he “probably won’t accept these offers”.

 

[AnythingO's]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t understand why people keep saying he “probably won’t accept these offers”.

I don't pretend to speak for "people" but Boras, is the likely answer to your question. However, I agree with you, $300M is nonsense. He will enter FA as a 30 year old C, we have no way at this point to know what his physical condition will be nor how productive his bat will be re: a position change. He maybe has 6 years left at that point, what are teams going to give today for a 30-year old catcher 4+ years from now? Answer that question, add $45M for his ARB years and that's your offer. Maybe 6/$160, plus a signing bonus $5M you get to 10/$210M and the team assumes all performance risk. Give him an opt out after year 6.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I don't pretend to speak for "people" but Boras, is the likely answer to your question. However, I agree with you, $300M is nonsense. He will enter FA as a 30 year old C, we have no way at this point to know what his physical condition will be nor how productive his bat will be re: a position change. He maybe has 6 years left at that point, what are teams going to give today for a 30-year old catcher 4+ years from now? Answer that question, add $45M for his ARB years and that's your offer. Maybe 6/$160, plus a signing bonus $5M you get to 10/$210M and the team assumes all performance risk. Give him an opt out after year 6.

What does Boras have to do with anything?

I think he's a Beverly Hills Sports Council client.

[AnythingO's]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What does Boras have to do with anything? I think he's a Beverly Hills Sports Council client.

Just the Boras mentality, a superstar rookie won't sign an extension that's team friendly.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Just the Boras mentality, a superstar rookie won't sign an extension that's team friendly.

Except it happens all the time.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Just the Boras mentality, a superstar rookie won't sign an extension that's team friendly.

I just don't get the Boras fixation. 

 

[flaoriolesfan]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t understand why people keep saying he “probably won’t accept these offers”.

 

I don't know but didn't you also say it. This is one argument I would be ecstatic to lose.

 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, flaoriolesfan said:

I don't know but didn't you also say it. This is one argument I would be ecstatic to lose.

 

No I haven’t said that. I did say that Frobby’s deal isn’t enough imo and that you need to sweeten the deal more.