Memorial Day and the trade deadline

[Sports Guy]

We have gotten to the point in the season where you start saying, maybe this is who the team really is.  Memorial Day is always that day during the season where you start to say maybe this good start or bad start is for real.

The division remains tough but outside of Houston and maybe Texas, the rest of the AL isn’t that good. The Os definitely have that realistic playoff shot right now.

Now, I do not think they continue to play at their current pace but it does seem like they will be better than I anticipated and fighting for the playoffs, perhaps even the division, seems very realistic.

With that said, what are your expectations for the trade deadline? Not necessarily guys you want to go after specifically but what do you think this team will try to add and who are the likeliest players traded?

Btw, for references, let’s also look at who needs to be added to the 40 man, who could be cut from the 40 man (between now and then) and who will be a FA after this season:

FA:  Gibson and Frazier 

DFA potentials: Akin, Gillaspie, Vespi, Zimmermann, Watkins, Voth, OHearn, Vavra

Has to/potential be added: Westburg, Haskin, Kjerstad, Pinto, R Watson

 

Obviously, as we have discussed, we have a glut of MIers. The OF could start to get very crowded as well, depending on a few factors.

At some point, the team has to alleviate some of that “problem” and add pieces that they don’t have.

This team appears to be for real but he’s not without its issues. 

[sportsfan8703]

I’m not trying to give @Sports Guy hard time, but this is yet another well disguised 40 man roster crunch thread. We’ve lost Zach Pop in the Rule 5 in the last last 15 years. We’ll be alright. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m not trying to give @Sports Guy hard time, but this is yet another well disguised 40 man roster crunch thread. We’ve lost Zach Pop in the Rule 5 in the last last 15 years. We’ll be alright. 

We didn’t have a roster crunch before because we had no talent and plethora of guys you could cut and not even realize they are gone.

But that’s also not really the point of this thread..it’s just part of it.

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

We didn’t have a roster crunch before because we had no talent and plethora of guys you could cut and not even realize they are gone.

But that’s also not really the point of this thread..it’s just part of it.

I’m just joking with you. If you wanna see how teams clean off their 40 man in deadline deals look at the returns DD got when he sold. Std Thrift also had a nice 40 man dump when he sold. The things we could’ve done with Trenidad Hubbard. 

[oriole]

I don’t think Elias trades anyone of substance for a rental. That includes the crowded middle infield. Also, if recent history is any indication…he will probably trade one of the established players to clear room for cheaper players. I could see Santander, Mateo, or Frazier being traded rather than Westburg, Ortiz, or Norby. Unless of course he has a blockbuster move that includes a player with some control but he hasn’t ever done anything like that so it’s hard to envision it happening til it does

[Sports Guy]

Norby and Stowers for Gioloto?

 

I can see something like this. I don’t think they will mind a rental and this helps with some of that depth.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

This could go so many ways I am just not going to speculate. Could go all in for a TOR starter. Could move expendable veterans (Urias or Mateo?) to fill holes or a target prospects like last year's Lopez trade. Could trade Norby/Prieto types for a bullpen arm or bat. Just so many ways it can go and they aren't mutually exclusive. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

This could go so many ways I am just not going to speculate. Could go all in for a TOR starter. Could move expendable veterans (Urias or Mateo?) to fill holes or a target prospects like last year's Lopez trade. Could trade Norby/Prieto types for a bullpen arm or bat. Just so many ways it can go and they aren't mutually exclusive. 

I agree. What is interesting to me is the part you brought up about trading existing MLers. 
 

I wonder if they will be willing to do that in the middle of a season where you are winning.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Sports Guy

[tntoriole]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree. What is interesting to me is the part you brought up about trading existing MLers. 
 

I wonder if they will be willing to do that on the middle of a season where you are winning.

I don’t see existing MLers going if team is in the thick of it .. i think either a major deal with prospects for pitching or he will go with the callups as late reinforcements and wait on John Means panning out or not .. 

[Fiver6565]

Something else that complicates this is that its not clear how many sellers there will be.  Some of these other divisions (looking at you, NL and AL Central) are so bad, that even a team with a start as bad as the White Sox can talk themselves into still being 'in it'.  Will be interesting to see how that impacts this as well.  The good news is that, in the AL at least, almost no one will have delusions of the wild card, given the ALE dominance and a couple good teams in the West.  It will be division or bust for most.

[deward]

I think Elias is going to count on Means as his big deadline addition and not trade any major prospect, especially not for a rental. Especially if the team keeps winning at anything resembling its current pace, I suspect he'll be reluctant to mess with what's working. We have yet to see him make any real aggressive moves, so why start now if the plan is working?

[SilentJames]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I think Elias is going to count on Means as his big deadline addition and not trade any major prospect, especially not for a rental. Especially if the team keeps winning at anything resembling its current pace, I suspect he'll be reluctant to mess with what's working. We have yet to see him make any real aggressive moves, so why start now if the plan is working?

I agree with this. He isn't going to bet the farm he just finished rebuilding right when it starts paying off.  However, I could see deals for supplemental arms - bullpen and high minors guys. 

I think the biggest tradebait the Orioles have right now are Watkins, Ortiz, and McKenna.  I think they get traded in a package for pitching support and high-minors guys. bullpen arms for the stretch-run. 

 

[AnythingO's]

My expectations for the trade deadline hinge on guessing what ME is thinking. He lost all of us with Frazier so good luck reading his mind. IMO, ME is still evaluating all the pieces, both MLB and MiLB players. What does the real Mateo look like, 2 amazing heaters in less than a season? Does he have a third coming? Can he be a .700-750 OPS guy with GG defense? What to do with Urias as Ortiz has shown the ability to cover his spot? Westburg can cover all 3 IF positions as well. I think ME plans for next year, not this year. I can see him trading some of Urias, Norby, Stowers, Vavra, they are surplus going forward. Westburg. Ortiz, Mateo, and Gunnar are your infield going forward. In the COF, I don't think Santander is in ME's future plans, Hays to RF, Cowser to LF along with Mullins and McKenna. We still need a 1B better than Mounty, hopefully Kjerstad can make that transition, maybe Diaz on the bench. I don't think a big TOR SP is in the cards because ME is risk adverse and JA ain't gonna write that check. The pieces I think are surplus don't get you there. ME already has Irvin and Means in reserve for 2024. Maybe Urias for Trevor Rogers (MIA's DL Hall) or the other surplus parts for an ERod rental. Maybe you take that chance hoping you can extend him, sweeten the pot from 3/$49M to 3/$54M and add a few years at market rate. ERod basically costs Gibson and Frazier going forward if he stays. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by AnythingO's
typo

[clapdiddy]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby and Stowers for Gioloto?

 

I can see something like this. I don’t think they will mind a rental and this helps with some of that depth.

I have been talking about Gioloto.   I see him as a definite target.   Personally, I wouldn't mind extending him if he were interested in a 3 year deal.   But, if he comes here and kills it, he's going to get way too expensive for the Orioles.

I think your deal is reasonable and, as you said, clears up some "glut".   

[RZNJ]

I would make a play for Eduardo Rodriguez and then have Wells out of the bullpen in the 2nd half.

Rodriguez is the one pitcher who looks like he could match up with any team’s ace.   
 

I would consider Hall or Westburg in a deal.