Hypothetical deadline trades - package pulse check

[BohKnowsBmore]

Given that the O's are very much in contention this year, I thought it might be interesting to do a quick pulse check on how the OH feels about the hypothetical trade packages below, one for a frontline starter, the other for a MOO bat. I know that Tony and the mods try to keep the main board clean of a bunch of random trade proposals, but I want to do something a little different. What follows is a bit of an "over/under" of sorts with the goal of getting a general sense of what this board thinks it will take to get certain pieces and how everyone feels about giving up said packages. On that note, I don't claim that these are the exact right packages that could or would be exchanged, but rather a chance to assess whether the proposed packages are wildly off in either direction and where folks' collective heads are at in terms of what we should be prepared to part with in general.

For this exercise, I have created hypothetical trade packages for two players, one pitcher and one batter, that each meet a potential need for the club and are under control beyond this year (both hitting FA following the 2024 season). While the pitcher (Burnes) is not likely on the block at the moment given his team's current spot in the standings, I felt that he was the best test case for this exercise given his profile and 1.5 years of control remaining. Finally, I constructed these hypothetical prospect/player packages to be mutually exclusive, but there's no assumption that these deals are connected in any way. 

 

Hypothetical Trade #1: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

As mentioned above, he's unlikely available, but he represents exactly what I think the O's will / should be looking to add at the deadline, a proven TOR pitcher with controllable year(s) beyond 2023. He would easily slot in to the front end of the O's rotation and would unquestionably be part of a shortened playoff rotation (i.e., I don't think a #4 type starter moves the needle in any meaningful way).

Proposed Package:
- Cade Povich, LHP
- Connor Norby, 2B
- Cesar Prieto, IF
- Dean Kremer, RHP (MLB)

Package Rationale:
Povich is the obvious headliner to the deal as an electric, albeit inconsistent, LHP who is on most top-100 lists. Norby adds to the package as a guy who is in the back portion of a lot of top-100 lists (not necessarily unanimous nor as high as Povich). Prieto is another top-15-ish type prospect with a pretty solid floor as a utility IF who can make contact to help round out the prospects in the deal. Kremer is a bit of a sweetener who also clears a 40-man and rotation spot for Burnes. I know a lot of folks don't like him, but he's had MLB success last year and has elevated his velocity this season; even if he doesn't take another next step forward, he's shown he's at least a competent-ish #5 / swing-man, but a team that's selling could be interested in letting him continue to see if he can unlock a little something extra for at least this season.

 

Hypothetical Trade #2: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

(EDIT / Note: I didn't realize that you could no longer have multiple, individual polls in a post; I had already typed this whole thing out, so figured I would keep it; poll above only relates to trade #1, but feel free to respond to this one below)

1B isn't a commonly-cited need for this team, but these past few games have made me feel a bit like this team could stand to add some additional thump to the middle of the lineup. Goldy checks all of the boxes: power, strong OBP, and good defense at 1B. While this team has been burned in the past by allocating resources to star first basemen, nobody has a more proven, consistent track record than Goldschmidt and this team could use a stud RHB. Added bonus that he's under control next season, so this isn't a rental only situation. 

Proposed Package:
- Joey Ortiz, SS
- Chayce McDermott, RHP
- Juan Nunez, RHP
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B (MLB)

Package Rationale:
Similar structure to the deal above with Oritz as the headliner (and perhaps a bit more widely/highly ranked than Povich). McDermott and Nunez are a bit less well-regarded than their counterparts in the deal above, but they are intriguing prospects nonetheless. Finally, while Mountcastle has struggled this season, he has clearly shown flashes of being a plus MLB power bat. A struggling club like St. Louis could slot him right into the 1B role (replacing Goldy) and give him a chance to see if he can reclaim any semblance of his prior success at the MLB level.  Similar to Kremer, the proposal here isn't that he's getting the deal done on his own by any stretch, rather that he's a potential pot sweetner that the right team might be interested in when evaluating various prospect packages.

 

Some additional notes:

• It may be obvious, but as part of this exercise I was interested to see if we could construct interesting trade packages without including our top, top guys
• Gets too complicated to include above, but I think Ramon Urias could be an interesting portion of a three-team deal to net additional prospects that could sweeten offers such as the ones above

Edited July 3, 2023 by BohKnowsBmore

[dystopia]

I do the trade for Burnes. Despite this weekend, I’m more concerned about the lack of bullpen depth and want a lockdown reliever over a bat. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think we need a LH SP. LHP plays up at OPACY because of the wall. It forces the other team to trot out a RH lineup that then has to face the wall. This is a matchup we should exploit. Especially in the playoffs. That’s why Jordan Montgomery would be my target. 

[ShoelesJoe]

I think the chances either the Brewers or Cardinals do those trades is somewhere in the zero range. Any team contemplating a major deal with the Orioles is going to hold out for at least one of the following players:

Henderson

Holliday

Mayo

Cowser

Westburg

Kjerstad

Basallo

I know. I know. Those guys are (mostly) untouchable in our books. But nobody is going to trade us a #1 or #2 pitcher w/o getting at least one sure fire stud prospect back in the deal, and I don't think Norby, Ortiz, Povich, or Prieto fit that description. 

[Aristotelian]

Why would you propose a trade you know from the first sentence the other team won't do. Even if they were available I don't think the packages you have proposed come close to getting either player. Norby might get us Montgomery.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think the deals are as far off as some are making it out to be. Money and service time does matter and performance for both of these guys is down.

I don’t think it’s quite enough but I don’t think we need to add a top 25-50 prospect to get it done either.

[glenn__davis]

Yeah, agree with SG, I don't think either of those deals is crazy far off.  Of course teams are going to want the higher tier prospects, doesn't mean they're going to get them.  

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think the deals are as far off as some are making it out to be. Money and service time does matter and performance for both of these guys is down.

I don’t think it’s quite enough but I don’t think we need to add a top 25-50 prospect to get it done either.

Corbin’s K rate has plummeted this year. You might be right that we’re not too far off. But, with so many contenders this year, it only takes one to make a stupid offer. 

[emmett16]

Has a team in first place and planning on a title run ever traded their Ace?  Can’t say I remember that happening, but maybe this is the year it does. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Corbin’s K rate has plummeted this year. You might be right that we’re not too far off. But, with so many contenders this year, it only takes one to make a stupid offer. 

I agree but Chapman got very little.  Not that one deal means everything but it could be a sign of things.

I think this is a case of people looking at names of the players coming back and then ending their thoughts there. Not taking into account the years they are having, the age, salary, service time, etc… Burnes is especially seeing a down year although I’m not convinced that is who he is going forward.

[sportsfan8703]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would you propose a trade you know from the first sentence the other team won't do. Even if they were available I don't think the packages you have proposed come close to getting either player. Norby might get us Montgomery.

Jordan Montgomery and David Robertson make sense for us. A lefty SP in OPACY and a high end reliever to help shorten games. Robertson-Cano-Bautista. The 2023 bullpen version of Brach-O’day-Britton. 

[emmett16]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree but Chapman got very little.  Not that one deal means everything but it could be a sign of things.

I think this is a case of people looking at names of the players coming back and then ending their thoughts there. Not taking into account the years they are having, the age, salary, service time, etc… Burnes is especially seeing a down year although I’m not convinced that is who he is going forward.

You think that @ 28 y/o the 101 ip this year Burnes has pitched is more indicative of future success than his previous 515?  I don’t think the Brewers or other MLB execs see it that way. 
 

I just don’t see a team in a playoff hunt moving a guy who has been one of the best pitches in baseball the last few years and who is still 28.  

Edited July 3, 2023 by emmett16

[glenn__davis]

25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Has a team in first place and planning on a title run ever traded their Ace?  Can’t say I remember that happening, but maybe this is the year it does. 

I do agree that Burnes seems like an unlikely target and the Goldschmidt deal is more likely.  

[glenn__davis]

2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I think the chances either the Brewers or Cardinals do those trades is somewhere in the zero range. Any team contemplating a major deal with the Orioles is going to hold out for at least one of the following players:

I think you can take Henderson off that list.  He's a bonafide young MLB player helping the MLB team.  There's really no incentive for the Orioles to trade him and I doubt teams would even bother to ask.

The rest of your list, I agree that's who teams would be targeting but again, doesn't mean they're going to be able to obtain those types of players.  Maybe someone will though.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I do agree that Burnes seems like an unlikely target and the Goldschmidt deal is more likely.  

He was a guy I wanted to target at beginning of the year if Brewers struggled.  That hasn’t been the case and they are looking to make a push.  I’d give up some talent to get him (and admit the package likely isn’t far off) but just don’t see any world where Milwaukee does a deal.  Even with a massive over pay they leave a huge hole on a team that’s trying to win a title.  Their future fortunes essentially depend on him turning things around and becoming dominant again.  

Edited July 3, 2023 by emmett16