Hypothetical deadline trades - package pulse check

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, bpilktree67 said:

I don't think they thought they would be this bad.  They have 108 million on the 5 guys that they control right now in Arenado, Goldy, Mikolas, Matz, and Contreras.  That is an aging and declining core of players and if you look at their farm it is one of the weakest in baseball.  They might want to go for it again another year because of playing in a weak division but I think that is just prolonging their decline.  Now they can support a 160 million payroll if they want but i think they have way too many holes to fill and will still have a medicore team at best next year or two especially with the Reds as a young and upcoming team.  

I can see the rational (sort of) with the Cardinals being willing to sell. They are out of it and are a bad baseball team. But the Brewers, what would be their incentive to trade one of their best starting pitchers unless they were getting something that can help them this year in return. They are in first place after all. 

[bpilktree67]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I can see the rational (sort of) with the Cardinals being willing to sell. They are out of it and are a bad baseball team. But the Brewers, what would be their incentive to trade one of their best starting pitchers unless they were getting something that can help them this year in return. They are in first place after all. 

I don't think Brewers move Burns during season at all.  He will be moved in the off season if they believe he will hit free agency(which i believe he will based on last off seasons arbitration issues).  

[bpilktree67]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I can see the rational (sort of) with the Cardinals being willing to sell. They are out of it and are a bad baseball team. But the Brewers, what would be their incentive to trade one of their best starting pitchers unless they were getting something that can help them this year in return. They are in first place after all. 

If i was GM i would be calling about Mitch Keller instead of Corbin Burns as the guy I would want to trade for.  He has two plus years of control left and the Pirates have all but dropped out of the race.  

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

If i was GM i would be calling about Mitch Keller instead of Corbin Burns as the guy I would want to trade for.  He has two plus years of control left and the Pirates have all but dropped out of the race.  

Keller would be interesting. What type of realistic costs do you think we would be looking at?

[bpilktree67]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Keller would be interesting. What type of realistic costs do you think we would be looking at?

There middle infield has been terrible so they could use an upgrade there.  I also wouldn't mind getting Carlos Santana as a platoon option at first base with O'Hearn and would save the Pirates about 3 million.

Orioles get

Mitch Keller & Carlos Santana

Pirates get

2 of 3 from Norby, Ortiz, Prieto

choice of Povich, Mcdermott, or Hall

Mouncastle

The extra year of control makes Keller as valuable as Burns Imo

 

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love the hubris that the O's can get quality players back by trading chaff.

You got the old one-two punch of trying to dump players the poster doesn't like and the idea that four relatively unappealing players is somehow going to get it done. 

You trade a lower tier prospect and you get Cole Irvin in return.

Possibly the best lefty reliever on the market just went for a bag of balls. It will not be hard to get a quality addition or two for hardly anything. 

[glenn__davis]

18 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

There middle infield has been terrible so they could use an upgrade there.  I also wouldn't mind getting Carlos Santana as a platoon option at first base with O'Hearn and would save the Pirates about 3 million.

Orioles get

Mitch Keller & Carlos Santana

Pirates get

2 of 3 from Norby, Ortiz, Prieto

choice of Povich, Mcdermott, or Hall

Mouncastle

The extra year of control makes Keller as valuable as Burns Imo

 

I think for Keller you're going to need to give up one of the top tier pieces.  I don't think you'd need to do that for Goldschmidt or Burnes (though I agree that Burnes probably isn't going to be dealt).

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love the hubris that the O's can get quality players back by trading chaff.

You got the old one-two punch of trying to dump players the poster doesn't like and the idea that four relatively unappealing players is somehow going to get it done. 

You trade a lower tier prospect and you get Cole Irvin in return.

I don't think either of the proposed trades are ridiculously off the mark given recent performance and years of control.  Maybe a little light but not ridiculously so.  Teams are far more reticent to trade big pieces away for older players than even a few years ago.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't think either of the proposed trades are ridiculously off the mark given recent performance and years of control.  Maybe a little light but not ridiculously so.  Teams are far more reticent to trade big pieces away for older players than even a few years ago.

Did you see yet another deal offering up Mountcastle and Hall?

Yea, we got folks here that start their trade proposals with dumping folks they've soured on.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I think for Keller you're going to need to give up one of the top tier pieces.  I don't think you'd need to do that for Goldschmidt or Burnes (though I agree that Burnes probably isn't going to be dealt).

All of this is correct imo.

Keller, with the extra year of service time  and he is having a big year although he isn’t missing bats and that is a bit worrisome.

The other issue with Keller is that he hasn’t been nearly this good in the past and it’s not like he’s 24 or something.

I would go after him and maybe I would consider trading someone from my “untouchable” list for him but I would be a little more cautious with this than most deals for someone with his service time, age and current performance.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you see yet another deal offering up Mountcastle and Hall?

Yea, we got folks here that start their trade proposals with dumping folks they've soured on.

But that doesn’t mean those players don’t have value. 

[bpilktree67]

14 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I think for Keller you're going to need to give up one of the top tier pieces.  I don't think you'd need to do that for Goldschmidt or Burnes (though I agree that Burnes probably isn't going to be dealt).

The way Ortiz is hitting in AAA he is a top tier piece.  How much of a difference Is Kjersted and Ortiz.   How many other teams can and would offer a major league ready prospect that is ranked in the top 60 in baseball?   Maybe a team does want to make a big splash (like Seatte did)  and will offer one but I am not sure if that team does.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But that doesn’t mean those players don’t have value. 

I think Hall has very little value at the moment.  I'm talking two 17 year old Dominican level value.  Mountcastle's value is also the lowest it has ever been, particularly with the Vertigo issue. 

Would you assign much value to either one of them right now if you were at the other side of the table?

[glenn__davis]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you see yet another deal offering up Mountcastle and Hall?

Yea, we got folks here that start their trade proposals with dumping folks they've soured on.

I did not see such a deal.  If it was in this thread, I missed it.

I see Mountcastle listed as the 4th piece in the Goldschmidt deal.  I don't think that's a ridiculous take.  I think he's absolutely a guy that another team might take a flyer on - as the 4th piece of the deal - to see if they can fix him.  

[glenn__davis]

13 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

The way Ortiz is hitting in AAA he is a top tier piece.  How much of a difference Is Kjersted and Ortiz.   How many other teams can and would offer a major league ready prospect that is ranked in the top 60 in baseball?   Maybe a team does want to make a big splash (like Seatte did)  and will offer one but I am not sure if that team does.  

You and I might see Ortiz that way, but based on the Orioles treatment of him vs. Westburg they don't, which leads me to believe that he's considered to be a notch below the rest of the "top" guys.