Kiley: What the Os need to do with this draft

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, sevastras said:

Or do you go over slot with someone who may be viewed as having signability issues?

What are you thinking?  I'm trying wrap my head around how that would play out.  It would have to be serious signability issues to go over-slot.  Like the guy thinks he's the next Harper and wants to go 1.1 or 1.2 at some point but not happening in 2023.  I don't know the board well enough to know who that could be.  But I would assume they are in HS and mixed in with all of the other draft eligibles.  (Was it Aiden Miller who had the broken hand?)  I would think the HS guys would either be a first rounder or not for this year's draft.  If not, then the over-slot could be in later picks.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-mock-draft-1-0/

Kiley's old colleague Longenhagen guesses us on a Georgia high school shortstop.

He also throws some shade on the Terp guy's physicality, going for a "bowling ball" description.

The big college aces all gone well before us in his guesses.

Folks picking behind Baltimore think they’re on the high school shortstops who could go in this range, including Houck and Colt Emerson.

Interesting.

[Jim'sKid26]

Wake Forest 3B Brock Wilken

They will pay a bit under slot. He fits their profile and provide another RH power bat.  Thats my SWAG.

[connja]

Considering how top heavy we are with position players in the mlb and high minors, I would be surprised if we went with a college bat.    College arm if one is available, otherwise a high school player.

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Wake Forest 3B Brock Wilken

They will pay a bit under slot. He fits their profile and provide another RH power bat.  Thats my SWAG.

I pondered the same thing. I like what I saw of Wilken. Big strong guy. Agile and fairly athletic, but slow from what I saw. I liked the swing a lot though.

We don’t know what the HS kids have for a number. This is a very deep draft.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Jammer7

[Rbiggs2525]

Orioles are in an enviable position in this draft. If you are a college bat why would you not want to be developed by this organization. I think they will go underslot with the first pick and go over slot the next few rounds. Last years pool was just under 17 million and this years pool is just under 11 million. If you take out the 4.5 million dollar projected slot of the first pick to 17th pick, we do not have a small draft pool. Putting names to what they are going to do is like throwing darts. My assumption is they have a Westburg/Cowser player in mind and already have a deal in place.

[sevastras]

16 hours ago, btdart20 said:

What are you thinking?  I'm trying wrap my head around how that would play out.  It would have to be serious signability issues to go over-slot.  Like the guy thinks he's the next Harper and wants to go 1.1 or 1.2 at some point but not happening in 2023.  I don't know the board well enough to know who that could be.  But I would assume they are in HS and mixed in with all of the other draft eligibles.  (Was it Aiden Miller who had the broken hand?)  I would think the HS guys would either be a first rounder or not for this year's draft.  If not, then the over-slot could be in later picks.

Lucas Giolito is a good example. He was in the conversation to go 1-1 but needed TJ going into the draft.  I forget exactly how far he dropped, something like 16 or 17 to the Nats, but he was still paid well. I wanted the Os to take him or Fried that year(high school teammates). 
Im not saying there is a clear case like that in this draft but just putting that thought out there. 

[sportsfan8703]

I could see us going Taylor the 3B from TCU with our first pick. Then Cooper Pratt the HS SS with one of our next two picks.  The NCAA OF Alderman could be in play as well. I’d be really happy if those were our first three picks. 

1. Brayden Taylor L/R 3B TCU 21 - Just turned 21. Cape Cod All Star. Played for team USA. Seems similar to Cowser. Good LH swing and bat to ball skills. Needs to tap into his power. 
 

1B. Cooper Pratt R/R SS HS 18 - 6’4”. Similar to Gunnar. They sky is the limit. Why risk a HS SS with pick #1 when the draft is loaded.  Go NCAA bat and HS SS after.  

2. Kemp Alderman R/R OF Ole Miss 20 - 6’3” 250. A big dude with high exit velocities.  Plus arm. Throws 94 from the mound. 
 

Taylor is also viewed as the 3rd best NCAA bat in the draft behind only Crews and Langford. That’s great value at 17. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

Drafting hitters is just the way to go right now until other teams catch on. It’s a copy cat league. 
 

Look at some of our hitter’s that have “struggled”recently that we drafted and spent on. Rhodes, Willems, Watson, Servedio, Trimble, and Carter Young. Only Servideo, Trimble, and Zach Watson, are non prospects at this point. Watson even had a 20/20 season playing CF. 
 

This strategy has worked for us. Hope we stick to it. Let us buy some arms when we have a better clue of what they will be in pro ball. 

[Sports Guy]

Kileys latest mock:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/37969204/2023-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-top-picks
 

Has us taking Lombard with the 17th pick 

[interloper]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:01 AM, Gurgi said:

I am going to go with "do what you have been doing"  pick the guys you have rated tops of your board.  Pitching be damned.   Elias deserves our patience and respect.  He has drafted extremely well.  

Yeah honestly if they go pitching in the first round I'll be kind of disappointed. Because their hit-rate with position players in the first round is basically flawless. Not to mention it's very good in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as well. 

Just keep the position player pipeline going. Find undervalued pitchers later in the draft. 

[LookinUp]

21 hours ago, btdart20 said:

What are you thinking?  I'm trying wrap my head around how that would play out. 

I have no idea how signability will play out, but do wonder what affect NIL could have on the MLB draft. There are a ton of high school kids this year. I'd wager we see the inevitable falls of a few highly rated ones. A couple will have deals with teams, which happens every year, and a couple others might just have such a high number because of NIL money that they don't get picked until after round 10.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I have no idea how signability will play out, but do wonder what affect NIL could have on the MLB draft. There are a ton of high school kids this year. I'd wager we see the inevitable falls of a few highly rated ones. A couple will have deals with teams, which happens every year, and a couple others might just have such a high number because of NIL money that they don't get picked until after round 10.

How much NIL money is there for college baseball players?

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I have no idea how signability will play out, but do wonder what affect NIL could have on the MLB draft. There are a ton of high school kids this year. I'd wager we see the inevitable falls of a few highly rated ones. A couple will have deals with teams, which happens every year, and a couple others might just have such a high number because of NIL money that they don't get picked until after round 10.

Good point, I didn't think of that angle.  Yeah, I could see it increasing their signing demands and messing with signability.  I don't think it'll be a material impact in the short term.

NIL Deal Tracker (on3.com) - a lot of football, some basketball, and pretty female athletes.

Colleges are using it as a way to work around the scholarship limitations.  Big programs will be able to offer more.

[RZNJ]

Names associated with O’s based on “model heavy” picks.   George Lombard, Chase Davis, and Arjun Nimmala.     Still feels like they are more comfortable going college despite a great track record in HS.