Keith Law's Orioles draft report card

[Moose Milligan]

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Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles went for one of the best defensive players in the draft, possibly the best right now, in Vanderbilt center fielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. (1), an 80 runner and at least a 70 defender who has bat speed but probably needs a complete overhaul at the plate. He’s tall and slender, so he doesn’t make much hard contact, although an exaggerated stance where he starts very wide and doesn’t sync up his hips and his hands at all may be contributing to the lower exit velocities and lack of power. He’s very athletic and has quick wrists, with 14 homers the last two years for the Commodores, so it’s reasonable to think the Orioles — who have done so well developing hitters recently — can get him to 40-45 power and make that hit tool really play. The floor is high, but there’s ceiling here.

 

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UNC outfielder Mac Horvath (2) has a great swing that puts the ball in the air a ton, with plus power and generally hard contact, but a high strikeout rate kept him from first-round consideration. He has no two-strike approach, which is easily rectified, and a lot of his strikeouts came from taking strikes rather than whiffing. He’s probably a 55 defender in right. Right-hander Jackson Baumeister (2A) had a very disappointing year at Florida State and probably would have done better signing out of high school. He’s 92-95 mph with riding life up, and has an average curveball and probably a 45 changeup, struggling with command and control all spring. There’s starter upside here, though, and maybe just getting out of Tallahassee into a pro system will help. Right-hander Kiefer Lord (3) is one of the best stories in the draft, going from 78-80 in 2020 to the mid-90s this year by going online during the pandemic and looking for ways to increase his velocity. He topped out at 99 this year with high spin rates on the fastball and two breaking balls, but ran out of gas at the end of the season, torching his overall stat line. I think he offers first-round upside, especially since he’s had very little help from coaching staffs as he’s developed this arsenal of pitches.

Tavian Josenberger (3) transferred from Kansas to Arkansas this year but failed to hit .300 for the second year in a row, although he did go from 2 homers for the Jayhawks to 10 for the Razorbacks. His swing works and he puts the ball in the air enough to at least have extra-base power, although he also needs help with his two-strike approach as he expands the zone too often. He’s probably an extra outfielder in the end thanks to his plus speed, although I could see some upside here. Right-hander Levi Wells (4) comes right over the top with an 89-94 mph fastball and has two breaking balls that are mostly vertical, so he can pitch north-south but struggles to work east-west. As is, he’s probably a bulk guy, neither a starter nor a pure reliever.

UNC-Charlotte outfielder Jake Cunningham (5) had a tough spring while coming off an ankle injury, but shows easy power and has a very athletic build and projectable frame. He struggled even just tracking fastballs this year, but I think he’s a better hitter than what he showed in 2023 and offers upside in the hit and power departments. Samford right-hander Jacob Cravey (6) is 6-6 with three pitches around average or fringe-average, getting on top of the fastball well, and might end up a back-end starter if he throws more strikes. Coastal Carolina reliever Teddy Sharkey (7) is up to 97 with a slider that drops right off the table and is up to 90 mph; opposing hitters are going to need a bigger boat. Southern Miss outfielder Matthew Etzel (10) is off-the-charts when it comes to athleticism, with incredible force-plates measurements and at least 70 speed. He’s 6-3, 220 pounds, but hits small, with a slappier swing that produces a lot of contact but not much power. He can definitely handle center, though, and the Orioles have to think they can unlock some harder contact here.

https://theathletic.com/4681470/2023/07/12/mlb-draft-2023-american-league-report/

[Moose Milligan]

Kind of disappointing the article is title report card and he doesn't give a grade.  But it's a decent rundown.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Kind of disappointing the article is title report card and he doesn't give a grade.  But it's a decent rundown.

He explains that he hates giving out draft grades and thinks they are dumb.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He explains that he hates giving out draft grades and thinks they are dumb.

Yeah, well, I think he's dumb for thinking it's dumb.  If you're going to opine on how well you think a team did or didn't do, might as well slap a grade on here.  And I like Keith Law, generally speaking but it's silly to call something a "report card" and then refuse to attach actual grades to it.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, well, I think he's dumb for thinking it's dumb.  If you're going to opine on how well you think a team did or didn't do, might as well slap a grade on here.  And I like Keith Law, generally speaking but it's silly to call something a "report card" and then refuse to attach actual grades to it.

To be fair, maybe he didn’t put the title on there.  Maybe The Athletic did to get clicks.

[RZNJ]

Seems like a very positive write up on mostly everyone.  Key word being upside on the position players.

[Tony-OH]

Pretty good summary that leads you to think the Orioles went very tool heavy. They appear to believe in their development system to be able to unlock these guys. 

Overall, I like what they did and figured this would be a very college heavy draft due to these being the COVID high school senior season college draft year. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Pretty good summary that leads you to think the Orioles went and very tool heavy. They appear to believe in their development system to be able to unlock these guys. 

Overall, I like what they did and figured this would be a very college heavy draft due to these being the COVID high school senior season college draft year. 

Get Witt signed and I think the potential of this draft is huge. Really like what they did overall. 

[RZNJ]

“off the charts athleticism” regarding a low bonus 10th rounder.   That’s pretty interesting stuff coming from especially someone like Law who tends to be more reserved with his praise.

[baltfan]

This definitely has the chance to be a Grade A draft if they can get Witt signed.  

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Get Witt signed and I think the potential of this draft is huge. Really like what they did overall. 

Have to imagine Witt is the fall back if Jackson Baumeister wants too much. Other than that, unless he just wants to get his pro career started, I don't see where they will save enough to get him to his number that's probably pretty high due to where he fell.

[Otter]

I like that they went upside over production with most of the picks.  We can certainly afford to do that with all the talent currently in the organization.  No more drafting a Greiner just for need...

And I have to agree that Witt is a long shot; if he lasted until the 18th round he must have told teams it would take a very high number to get him signed.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, well, I think he's dumb for thinking it's dumb.  If you're going to opine on how well you think a team did or didn't do, might as well slap a grade on here.  And I like Keith Law, generally speaking but it's silly to call something a "report card" and then refuse to attach actual grades to it.

My elementary school tried this for a couple of years.  Kids would being home report cards with comments about their progress in various topics, but no grades.  It was a very late 1960’s thing to do.   The experiment didn’t last long.  I guess the parents needed something more concrete.   

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My elementary school tried this for a couple of years.  Kids would being home report cards with comments about their progress in various topics, but no grades.  It was a very late 1960’s thing to do.   The experiment didn’t last long.  I guess the parents needed something more concrete.   

Sounds like some touchy-feely BS that'd be popular today.  "Oh no, no grades, don't want to hurt anyone's feelings who didn't get an A!"

Ain't that right, @Sports Guy?

Edited July 12, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sounds like some touchy-feely BS that'd be popular today.  "Oh no, no grades, don't want to hurt anyone's feelings who didn't get an A!"

Ain't that right, @Sports Guy?

My kids don’t get letter grades until like after 3rd grade or something stupid like that.