Keith Law's Orioles draft report card

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sounds like some touchy-feely BS that'd be popular today.  "Oh no, no grades, don't want to hurt anyone's feelings who didn't get an A!"

Ain't that right, @Sports Guy?

Well, I did get this comment from one teacher:

”The class is doing 5th grade work.  Ricky isn’t!  We will check his records to see if he is capable of handling his assignments.”

Just about sent my parents into orbit!  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

My kids don’t get letter grades until like after 3rd grade or something stupid like that.

Well you can tell them Keith Law thinks letter grades are stupid, too.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well you can tell them Keith Law thinks letter grades are stupid, too.

“The class is doing Hi A work.  Ignacio isn’t!  We will check his records to see if he is capable of pitching at this level.”

Edited July 12, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well you can tell them Keith Law thinks letter grades are stupid, too.

Im sure Law hates grades because it separates kids and grades are inherently racist and unfair. 

[seak05]

Grades are arbitrary cut off points. We’re just conditioned to use them. They have value when the goal is to signal to an outside organization relative rank order, but for a 2nd grader they’re basically meaningless (sorry). Comments on Reading levels, social skill development, math skills etc are far more relevant. 
 

Or think about it this way, as an adult do you get a grade with your performance eval? 

[ChuckS]

29 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Grades are arbitrary cut off points. We’re just conditioned to use them. They have value when the goal is to signal to an outside organization relative rank order, but for a 2nd grader they’re basically meaningless (sorry). Comments on Reading levels, social skill development, math skills etc are far more relevant. 
 

Or think about it this way, as an adult do you get a grade with your performance eval? 

Most performance evals in my industry come with some kinda grade (1-5), just not the A-F scale. 

I kind of agree with you though on giving grades to 6-8 year olds. Comments are more valuable. At some point, they have to aim for something though and tough to do if you don’t assign a measurement of success or failure. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by ChuckS

[seak05]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Most performance evals in my industry come with some kinda grade (1-5), just not the A-F scale. 

I kind of agree with you though on giving grades to 6-8 year olds. Comments are more valuable. At some point, they have to aim for something though and tough to do if you don’t assign a measurement of success or failure. 

Sure, I work with 15-16 year olds, grades matter to them. Different ages require different things. That said a lot of students are obsessed with the grade, vs actual learning, and the process. Plus a big role in success as an adult is being willing to take risks and potentially fail. 

[baltfan]

I can see where you could say grades aren’t necessary because you can just compare his rankings versus where guys were taken to see his view.  In truth, I think he doesn’t do it because he doesn’t want people years later evaluating how good he is at his job.  And, BTW, I generally like Law. 

[Stotle]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, well, I think he's dumb for thinking it's dumb.  If you're going to opine on how well you think a team did or didn't do, might as well slap a grade on here.  And I like Keith Law, generally speaking but it's silly to call something a "report card" and then refuse to attach actual grades to it.

From what I have come to know about Keith over the last ~13 years (from speaking to him and others about him), I think he got tired about six/seven years ago with people throwing grades/comps/etc. back in his face -- especially when they were taking them out of context. So, for better or for worse, I think he is way more wishy-washy than he was in his earlier ESPN days. I get it and I do think the raw info is what's most interesting. But I also get why readers would expect you to be able to take a stand. Scouts hate when I hedge in my evals when we are talking players. Sometimes people just want a answer and not a bunch of nuance for you to figure out on your own.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Stotle said:

From what I have come to know about Keith over the last ~13 years (from speaking to him and others about him), I think he got tired about six/seven years ago with people throwing grades/comps/etc. back in his face -- especially when they were taking them out of context. So, for better or for worse, I think he is way more wishy-washy than he was in his earlier ESPN days. I get it and I do think the raw info is what's most interesting. But I also get why readers would expect you to be able to take a stand. Scouts hate when I hedge in my evals when we are talking players. Sometimes people just want an answer and not a bunch of nuance for you to figure out on your own.

I understand his point. But it’s also silly to grade a player on a 20 (F) to 80 (A+) scale and then not give a letter grade. Or say that someone has “plus plus” stuff. 
 

Anyway, it’s been forever since I’ve seen you on here. Hope you’re doing well and post more here please. 

[sportsfan8703]

Love the blurb on Kiefer Lord. Up to 99. Tired out at the end of the year and blew up his stat line. Taught himself velo improvements and mechanics from YouTube. He’s going to be an OH favorite. 
 

The 10 rd pick seems like he could be special if we tap into that 6’3” 200 frame. 

Before it was the strategy of draft a bunch of SS then we can move them around the IF. Now it’s draft a bunch of athletic CF and we can move them around the OF. 

Elias values elite defense. Even Kjerstad and Mayo have some redeeming defensive qualities, and they’re are big lumbering bats. 

[deward]

On 7/12/2023 at 12:49 PM, RZNJ said:

Seems like a very positive write up on mostly everyone.  Key word being upside on the position players.

Someone asked Law in a Q&A today who he thought had the best drafts and the O's were on the list.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, deward said:

Someone asked Law in a Q&A today who he thought had the best drafts and the O's were on the list.

Not surprising considering his individual comments on many of our picks. It is nice to get his stamp of approval.   I think Elias and team have gained his respect.

[Punchandjudy]

On 7/12/2023 at 12:59 PM, Tony-OH said:

Pretty good summary that leads you to think the Orioles went very tool heavy. They appear to believe in their development system to be able to unlock these guys. 

Overall, I like what they did and figured this would be a very college heavy draft due to these being the COVID high school senior season college draft year. 

I follow that train of thought Tony, but why not draft a few HS players if you are so high on your developmental program?  Seems like you can find higher upside players falling lower due to the year lost for COVID.  You also have more time to coach them up.  What are your thoughts on drafting college versus high schoolers if the philosophy you speculated (accurately IMO) was their FO’s guiding philosophy? 

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

I follow that train of thought Tony, but why not draft a few HS players if you are so high on your developmental program?  Seems like you can find higher upside players falling lower due to the year lost for COVID.  You also have more time to coach them up.  What are your thoughts on drafting college versus high schoolers if the philosophy you speculated (accurately IMO) was their FO’s guiding philosophy? 

I like taking college bats and arms early in the draft, but once you get into that 3rd round and past, the upside of the college bats usually start to twindle. The problem is, not a ton of high school kids with upside tools are going to sign out of high school unless they are taken in those first couple of rounds or can get a 7-figure bonus. A lot rather go get the college experience and see if they can increase their value and get redrafted for more money in 3 years. 

With a lack of rookie league teams, colleges can say that they will get just as many PAs and will get playing time vs going to the pros and if they struggle and don't have a big bonus behind them, will get buried in a professional organization.

Each draft class is different too. Not every draft class will have signable 5th round talents like Hernaiz (though the book has still not really been written with him, he does look like a good selection). 

This past year the org definitely took toolsey pitches and players with the hope of developing in their system vs guys with real good college numbers. 

I like taking some high ceiling arms because even if some blow out, if you take enough, a few diamonds will come through.