Keith Law's Orioles draft report card

[Jammer7]

15 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

I follow that train of thought Tony, but why not draft a few HS players if you are so high on your developmental program?  Seems like you can find higher upside players falling lower due to the year lost for COVID.  You also have more time to coach them up.  What are your thoughts on drafting college versus high schoolers if the philosophy you speculated (accurately IMO) was their FO’s guiding philosophy? 

I am not Tony, of course. The simple answer, for me, is they like a lot of data. Three more years of data gives a pretty good track record. They can get a lot of the maturity questions answered and see how these kids respond to the college game and how their work ethic is. Also, college guys generally have less leverage, so they cost less. 

They still take some HS guys, obviously, but I think they put a lot of stock into intangibles. They really pick their spots and their success with HS kids, so far, is pretty impressive. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Punchandjudy said:

I follow that train of thought Tony, but why not draft a few HS players if you are so high on your developmental program?  Seems like you can find higher upside players falling lower due to the year lost for COVID.  You also have more time to coach them up.  What are your thoughts on drafting college versus high schoolers if the philosophy you speculated (accurately IMO) was their FO’s guiding philosophy? 

Completely agree with what Jammer and Tony said.  And I'll add a few more angles:

1. The data for HS is very spotty too.  Quite often it's a mom/dad/HS team manager running GameChanger determining hits/errors for a lot of HS teams (probably different for schools like IMG).  It's the travel circuits and various competitive teams that have Trackman and such.  The reason the MLB created the Draft Combine a few years ago is to get cleaner data.

2. The level of competition is tougher to measure/project on too.  That was the chatter around Termarr last year.  And Ritchie this year.

3. The talk around this year's draft was about the depth of college bats (and everyone dreams over the HS arms).  I don't know if Elias was using Game Theory or if he was simply drafting for need, but maybe he went heavy with college arms because everyone else was focused on college bats.

[Punchandjudy]

Appreciate the input from everyone.  I wondered if the expansion of metrics everywhere permeated HS to provide some measurables such as spin rate.  
 

it seems to me that Elias and Co prioritized stuff over results and I wondered if the same extrapolation could be made on HS talent, but everyone’s input makes sense that the data doesn’t exist on the same level as college nor does the track record exist. 
 

with all that being said, what gives international scouts the data needed to spend the dollars they do? Or does the lack or slotted amounts/overall draft cap negate the need to be so precise when signing international players?  Put another way, what’s the difference between singing a high priced international player and a HS player specifically from a metrics evaluation? 

[2001OriolesFan]

On 7/12/2023 at 4:59 PM, seak05 said:

Sure, I work with 15-16 year olds, grades matter to them. Different ages require different things. That said a lot of students are obsessed with the grade, vs actual learning, and the process. Plus a big role in success as an adult is being willing to take risks and potentially fail. 

Does he pack parachutes?

[2001OriolesFan]

On 7/13/2023 at 1:50 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

Love the blurb on Kiefer Lord. Up to 99. Tired out at the end of the year and blew up his stat line. Taught himself velo improvements and mechanics from YouTube. He’s going to be an OH favorite. 
 

The 10 rd pick seems like he could be special if we tap into that 6’3” 200 frame. 

Before it was the strategy of draft a bunch of SS then we can move them around the IF. Now it’s draft a bunch of athletic CF and we can move them around the OF. 

Elias values elite defense. Even Kjerstad and Mayo have some redeeming defensive qualities, and they’re are big lumbering bats. 

With "Mount Baltimore" in left field, the Orioles need to have two center fielder profile outfielders because we play half of our games at home.  We only have right field and 1st base to defensively hide big lumbering bats. Our 3rd base will be staffed with good players who started as SS.

This means that a 55 scouting value on OF SPEED should be the Orioles benchmark.

Cowser is a 55  (above average)

Kjerstad is a 45 (RF or 1st Base)

Beavers is a 55

Haskins is a 60

Fabiab is a 55

Rhodes is a 55

(Max Clark is a 70 1-3 Detriot)

Bradford is an 80  the birds...

(Dillon Head is an 80 (1-25 SD draft)  )

(Jack Hurley is an 60  3rd #80 Zona))

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

With "Mount Baltimore" in left field, the Orioles need to have two center fielder profile outfielders because we play half of our games at home.  We only have right field and 1st base to defensively hide big lumbering bats. Our 3rd base will be staffed with good players who started as SS.

This means that a 55 scouting value on OF SPEED should be the Orioles benchmark.

Cowser is a 55  (above average)

Kjerstad is a 45 (RF or 1st Base)

Beavers is a 55

Haskins is a 60

Fabiab is a 55

Rhodes is a 55

(Max Clark is a 70 1-3 Detriot)

Bradford is an 80  the birds...

(Dillon Head is an 80 (1-25 SD draft)  )

(Jack Hurley is an 60  3rd #80 Zona))

I think that 45 is low on Kjerstad but he’s a RF regardless.   Horvath is a 55-60.  Bradfield an 80.   Etzel at least a 70.   Josenberger and Cunningham a 55 or bettter.    So, they definitely drafted that way.

[ChosenOne21]

I seem to remember Fabian being a 60 run.