What would you have said......?

[foxfield]

Hyde deserves a whole lot of credit.  As SG said above, his teams have been gritty and have loved playing for him even when we trotted out sub MLB players. And to his credit, he seems to mesh really well with the Sigbot also.

It still feels weird watching 4 or 5 guys finish some games, but the Orioles seem to have pitch counts or the like on their pen.  Will it hold up?  Who knows, but last night when we needed 2 innings from Bautista, he went out it nailed it in short order.  That 1st pitch out in the 9th inning was huge and set him up to come back in the 10th.

Again, last night, Gunnar making stellar play at 3rd and SS, stealing a base on Arozarena's lazy throw.  Urias makes a run saving play.  These guys are just doing so many small things that don't show up in stats.  

To the OP, if you had told us all of this in March, it would have been hard to believe.  Most would say, I'll have whatever he is drinking.

But each part has added critical value.  Even Mateo...and Frazier.  All of these things buy time for Gunnar to grow into what he is becoming and perhaps still for Cowser, Westburg or Grayson or others.

Individually other than Bautista, who I agree is Oriole MVP so far, very little is Outstanding.  But together, this group shows up every day and grinds and it is very enjoyable to follow.

No idea where this particular run ends, but this feels like the beginning of something...and I am here for it!

Edited July 21, 2023 by foxfield

[now]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I would have said that's awesome, certainly surprising.

But... people will often say "well, the Orioles could contend this year but everything has to go right." And that's never right. Even the best teams have things go wrong, have players under-perform, have things go sideways and they end up with some random guy playing right field.

The 2014 Orioles won the division by 12 games, despite the '13 team being just over .500 and having the 10th best pitching staff in the AL. Most people picked them to finish 4th or 5th. So everything went right, correct? Not even close. Matt Wieters missed all but 26 games and his replacements hit terribly. Manny went out in July and never returned, being mostly replaced by .221-hitting Ryan Flaherty. Chris Davis not only had a bad year, but was suspended for the rest of the year in September. Nick Markakis had his worst year as a Major Leaguer to that point, OPSing .729. They never really found a regular LFer, with David Lough not hitting and Alejandro De Aza being picked up at the waiver deadline. Ubaldo made 25 mostly cringy starts.  Kevin Gausman spent two months in the minors. Their third starter was Bud Norris, who went 14-33, 5.07 from 2015 to the end of his career.

And they won the division by 12 games. Everything doesn't have to go right, just enough.

That's a great reminder, and what a litany of misfortune to overcome! I had to go to Baseball-Reference to find out how they pulled it off, and this is what I found that helps explain it:

Nelson Cruz (40 HR, 137 OPS+)
Steve Pearce (157 OPS+)
Delmon Young (117 OPS+)

Starters ERA+: 
Tillman 118, Chen 111, Norris 108, Gonzalez 122, Gausman 110

Bullpen ERA+
Britton 240, O'Day 232, Hunter 133, Matusz 114, Brach 125, McFarland 143, Miller 297

I know reliever ERA isn't the best metric but that's a formidable cast of firemen.

[LookinUp]

The best part, to me, is the expectation that the best is yet to come, both this year and in the future.

This year, there's every reason to think that we'll add 1-2 more very good arms, even after Fujinami.

There's every reason to think that Mateo, Frazier and Hicks won't be getting as many ABs. There's reason to think that the guys replacing them will get on base even when they're struggling (see Cowser). There's reason to think the defense will only improve.

Let's get Mullins healthy. Let's get these starters to the end of the season. Let's add a few arms. Let's let Cowser continue to work through his adjustment. Let's maybe add a late season minor league bat for a shot of life.

Let's go to the playoffs with a great defensive team, lineup that's strong from 1-9 and a reinforced pitching staff.

it's going to be fun.

And next year will be even better.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

if I told you in spring training that the Orioles would be in 1st place on July 21st but:

• Cedric Mullins would miss significant time with two stints on the IL
• Grayson Rodriguez would have 7.33 ERA in 11 starts
• Kyle Gibson would have a 4.76 ERA in 21 starts
• Dean Kremer would have a 4.80 ERA in 20 starts
• Cole Irvin would have a 5.11 ERA in 8 starts, 11 games and spent significant time in AAA
• Baker (3.83), Perez (4.88), Voth (4.94), and Akin (6.85) all would take steps back from their 2022 performances
• Mychal Givens would have an 11.25 ERA in just six games over 4 IP
• Dillon Tate and John Means have not pitched in the majors yet
• DL Hall would only pitch in only one game at the majors and be in Florida getting reset
• Ryan Mountcastle would be slashing .233/.268/.424/.692 and lost his job against right-handers to Ryan O'Hearn
• Aaron Hicks would be starting outfielder for the Orioles
• Jorge Mateo would be slashing .214/.264/.346/.610 and lost his everyday gig
• The Yankees would be in last place in the AL East

Now, this is not a negative post at all. What I'm trying to show is that it's not like everything has gone right for this team and they are catching lightning in a bottle. This team has overcome injuries and poor performances from players they were counting on coming into the year, yet here they are in first place.

Now obviously there are a lot of good stories:

• The emergence of Felix Bautista as an absolute dominant force at the back of the bullpen
• Austin Hays slashing .300/.338/.473/.811
• Gunnar Henderson slashing .247/.342/.476/.818 
• Anthony Santander slashing .271/.345/.494/.839
• Adley Rutschman slashing .274/.373/.431/.804    
• The emergence of Ryan O'Hearn, .305/.353/.506/.859
• The emergence of Yennier Cano 1.53 ERA over 41 games and 47 IP.
• Kyle Bradish with a 3.05 ERA in 17 starts
• Tyler Wells with a 3.54 ERA in 18 starts (19 games) despite giving up 22 HRs

Now, the Orioles are playing above their Pythagorean W-L: 53-43, 477 Runs, 429 Runs Allowed by six games, but I just find out it absolutely amazing that this team is in the first place in the hardest division in baseball while everything has not gone perfect. In fact, far from perfect. 

I really don't even have a theory on why they are doing so well overall other than this team just finds ways to win. 

And no matter what, I'm going to try and enjoy the ride!

   

 

What would I have done if you had said those things?

I would have offered to start you on some meds and referred you to a good friend of mine in the psychiatry department......

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

That reads as a resume for manager of the year. 

I think there is little doubt Hyde will be in the running for the manager of the year if this keeps up. We obviously see every move and some of his moves are head scratching, but the results are what they are and the results are all that matters at this point.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The best part, to me, is the expectation that the best is yet to come, both this year and in the future.

This year, there's every reason to think that we'll add 1-2 more very good arms, even after Fujinami.

There's every reason to think that Mateo, Frazier and Hicks won't be getting as many ABs. There's reason to think that the guys replacing them will get on base even when they're struggling (see Cowser). There's reason to think the defense will only improve.

Let's get Mullins healthy. Let's get these starters to the end of the season. Let's add a few arms. Let's let Cowser continue to work through his adjustment. Let's maybe add a late season minor league bat for a shot of life.

Let's go to the playoffs with a great defensive team, lineup that's strong from 1-9 and a reinforced pitching staff.

it's going to be fun.

And next year will be even better.

So I was thinking about this today.

Trying to remember how I felt in the mid 2010s compared to now. I think the big difference is, outside of 2014, that I never felt we had a really good team and , more importantly, I never felt the future was overly bright.

I think that the idea that arguably better things are to come makes me more excited now than before…by a pretty wide margin.

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I would have told you to put down the pipe, Tony but I'd have also asked you for the lotto number because those would have been some crazy and very specific predictions. 

I think the key to their success this year has been the unbelievable consistency. I think that it's fair to suggest that only Felix has been consistently GREAT the entire year. Just about every other guy has been pretty consistent or even throughout the entire season. Gunnar had a crap first two months. Since then he's put together a stellar two months. They lose 6 of 7 then go on to win 8 in a row. Things seem to even-out in a perplexing way for them this year, never getting too high and never getting too low. 

One of the more important skills (if you can call it a skill) of good pitchers is their consistency. A repeatable delivery can really be a difference-maker for a pitcher. Look at DL Hall. All the talent in the world but can't repeat it. If you look at any productive pitcher, like ever, you're likely to find that they have/had consistency. It's why pitchers are usually good golfers and good bowlers. The O's this year have been oddly consistent. Look at the dynamic at First. Mountcastle has the ability to go on tears for a week or two at a time and carry the club. He also has the propensity to disappear for weeks at a time. The rotation at first between Ant, O'Hearn and Urias while Mountcastle was out gave them more consistent production from the position. 

I think that's the key. Gunnar is blossoming into a bonafide superstar while Adley already has star power. They've got a roster that is, from top to bottom, better than average literally everywhere right now. Gibson has had moments as a weak link, as has Gunnar, Mountcastle has been really bad at times, etc. etc. you say that about every player on the team. They somehow even it out though. It's Orioles Magic, baby!

 

 

I think this is a huge key to this team's record IMHO. The offense this year has more consistent contributors vs streaky guys like Mountcastle. Henderson and Rutschman will draw walks even in their "bad streaks" and Hays and Santander seem to be less streaky this year. 

One of the reasons I was down on Mountcastle was his streakiness because when he's bad, he's an absolute zero at the plate. The hitters the Orioles are now adding are the kinds of guys that find ways to get on base or help the team vs just being complete zeros when they are not doing well. That has helped.

 

[Malike]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Agreed…I think the BP was the reason the team got off to the great start and build that 10-15 game over 500 record.

I think now there is more balance in terms of “this is why we are winning”’and Cano coming back to earth is part of that.

Bautista is the team MVP imo.

He better be a legit Cy Young candidate. He's got more strikeouts than some qualified starters. What an impressive season.

[Malike]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think there is little doubt Hyde will be in the running for the manager of the year if this keeps up. We obviously see every move and some of his moves are head scratching, but the results are what they are and the results are all that matters at this point.

I was thinking about this and what I did was started taking notes of other teams' managers doing things that I thought were head-scratchers, turns out, they all seem to do it. 

[Osornot]

I also see some young kids that love the game having fun.  Think back to when you were that young - you never thought you couldn't overcome an opponent's lead so there was not a lot of panic.  Now, think about these young kids and the talent they bring - why would they not believe that they will come back and win. I think the vets play off of this.  Think of the Adley/Bautista hug after another save.  That is pure joy and one of my favorite parts.  Of course, we have been able to see it a LOT but I don't get suck of it

Saying that, the OP is spot on.  Knowing all of that I would have been really sad lol

 

 

[Jumangio]

I have been enjoying this forum for many many years but never post… I am choosing to reply here because the OP and all the responses are just amazing. Who knows how this season will end but the sheer joy in not only the results but how this team plays is so refreshing.  I also love seeing true fans, often with different views on how to get better, rewarded with a culture change of a winning team. 
 

Go O’s 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

I was thinking about this and what I did was started taking notes of other teams' managers doing things that I thought were head-scratchers, turns out, they all seem to do it. 

Probably. I mean, we obvious scrutinize every Hyde moves because we are watching them every game, but there is little doubt other managers make some head scratching moves themselves. 

Now I'll be the first to admit that in game, he has more information than anyone on the situation and players at hand including how they may be feeling along with a team full of smart coaches. We play along because it's fun and we question things because that's what we do as fans, but in the end, wins and losses are the only thing that matters and Hyde always that on his side now. 

Doesn't really matter overall. He's going nowhere and probably will be either the manager of the year or among the finalists once again.

[sportsfan8703]

“Dumpster Diving”

Wells, Hicks, O’Hearn, Urias, Mateo, Baker, Perez, Bautista, and Santander. 

All guys we gave up nothing to get. 

[UMDTerrapins]

It’s July and we have a 33.5 game lead over the only other team with a lower payroll, and we have the top rated farm system in baseball and a bunch of top prospects just trying to get their footing or knocking on the door in AAA. The state of the bird is strong!

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Malike said:

He better be a legit Cy Young candidate. He's got more strikeouts than some qualified starters. What an impressive season.

If Ohtani is traded and goes to the NL and Bautista keeps doing what he’s doing, he should get serious MVP votes.

I think Britton should have gotten way more mvp consideration in 2016 than he did.