What do we do about Jorge Mateo?

[Billy F-Face3]

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not according to statcast release points. I know not everyone saw my analysis of him but Ben keeps saying something that the statcast data does not suggest. It's location mainly for Cano has batters have adjusted and are not missing those middle-middle sinkers even with the movement.

Statcast also said the Angels centerfielder (Moniak) had a 99% probability of catching a fly ball at the fence last night. He didn't. Statcast was 99% wrong.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I'm not sure he's even effective as a pinch runner right now.  He was on first in a situation that screamed for a stolen base last night (or was in Monday?) and didn't try to steal.

Mateo might not be 100% right now and it’s even more reason not to play him if his speed as a base runner can’t be utilized. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Does Elias have in him to DFA Mateo.  IMO, Elias has a problem with getting nothing for players who he feels have value.  He is like the patron saint of lost causes.  Elias will feel like he has to get something for Mateo, who I believe the O's claimed off the waiver wire.  Now that Mateo's defense has cratered, his value to the team is nonexistent.  Ortiz needs to be up here ASAP and there is no room for a Mateo who can't provide superior defense.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, not most.  Slightly less than half.

Interestingly, even ZiPS had Mateo projected to finish 2023 at .768 after his hot first month.  So, this wasn’t just some irrational reaction among diehard Orioles fans.  It just doesn’t happen that fundamentally terrible hitters put up a month of 1.062 OPS, and once a month like that is in the books, it’s damned hard to drag your OPS down to terrible levels.  

I would venture a guess that the differential between Mateo’s 1.062 April and his .316 May might be the largest month-to-month OPS fluctuation in the history of MLB for a guy with 75+ PA in each month.  
 

Yea, it was just an irrational projection system that really doesn’t mean anything.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Statcast also said the Angels centerfielder (Moniak) had a 99% probability of catching a fly ball at the fence last night. He didn't. Statcast was 99% wrong.

Or the player made an absolutely awful play. Statcast data on release points and movement are rarely wrong and there's so much data that it evens out.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Not according to statcast release points. I know not everyone saw my analysis of him but Ben keeps saying something that the statcast data does not suggest. It's location mainly for Cano has batters have adjusted and are not missing those middle-middle sinkers even with the movement.

They did put up some graph on the broadcast a couple nights ago that showed his arm slot was the lowest all season over his last 3 appearances. I don't think it was a statcast thing, but something out there is detecting a lower arm slot. Now maybe his arm slot is different but his release point is the same?

[InsideCoroner]

I have rooted for Mateo’s success as much as anyone on here — when he’s on, he might be the Orioles’ single most exciting player — but a winning team like this needs a more dependable option. He can’t hit, he has botched plays when it really mattered, and (although this isn’t really his fault) I can’t recall any spectacular plays that only he could have pulled off this season (while last year, there were quite a few). 

Yes please to Ortiz. If they can get anything at all in return for Mateo, great. If not, c’est la vie. Frazier may not wow you, but he is reliable. This team needs reliable with the stakes so high.

Edited July 26, 2023 by InsideCoroner

[Jim'sKid26]

This decision will test Hyde and Elias. It seems like an obvious situation. He should be DFA'ed. Will they have the stones to make this happen? I guess we will see.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

This decision will test Hyde and Elias. It seems like an obvious situation. He should be DFA'ed. Will they have the stones to make this happen? I guess we will see.

They had the stones to sit Frazier more when they called up Westburg, and option Irvin, and give the starting 1B role to O'Hearn over Mountcastle.

Surely they have the stones to DFA Mateo. 

[Gofannon]

Since May 1st, he is batting .153 (26 for 170) with 7 doubles, 1 triple, and no homers.  He's got 10 walks and 52 strikeouts.  He's only stolen 13 bases, proving again that you can't steal first base.  He's got a .200 OBP and a .209 slugging percentage since May 1st.  

He's proven he's not a full-time player.  Now he's proven he's not a part-time player.  His best chance to contribute is defensively and on the basepaths, but now he's hurting us defensively.  There is no long-term future for him at the position - Henderson and Holliday are better options.  He doesn't need to be a short-term option - Joey Ortiz can come in right now and can give us a glove-first SS at worst, if that's what we want.

This isn't 1974 Herb Washington Oakland A's territory.  For those wanting a baserunning specialist, that happened with 8 or 9 man pitching staffs.  That was 50 years ago. You only get 4 bench guys these days and one of them is your back-up catcher.  You don't carry a guy who gives you nothing for 5 months on the off chance that he's needed twice in the playoffs. 

April was fun, but it's time for him to go.

[RZNJ]

It’s really not obvious.  I have no problem releasing him, period.  But, even with everything Mateo is an above average defensive ML SS who can steal bases and hit decently against LHP.   That’s not an obvious DFA guy for pure baseball reasons.  He’s not going anywhere.  It’s simply not the Elias/Hyde M.O.     

 

[interloper]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s really not obvious.  I have no problem releasing him, period.  But, even with everything Mateo is an above average defensive ML SS who can steal bases and hit decently against LHP.   That’s not an obvious DFA guy for pure baseball reasons.  He’s not going anywhere.  It’s simply not the Elias/Hyde M.O.     

 

I'm tempted to agree here, but I will say when things like this become very obvious to the majority of fans, we tend to see a move eventually down the line. It happened with playing Frazier and Mounty less. It happened with optioning Grayson and Irvin and McKenna. Mateo's days are numbered I think. It might not happen until after the deadline, but I'm not fully convinced that Elias sticks with Mateo simply because he's fast and can (sometimes when he feels like it) play good defense. 

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

Since May 1st, he is batting .153 (26 for 170) with 7 doubles, 1 triple, and no homers.  He's got 10 walks and 52 strikeouts.  He's only stolen 13 bases, proving again that you can't steal first base.  He's got a .200 OBP and a .209 slugging percentage since May 1st.  

He's proven he's not a full-time player.  Now he's proven he's not a part-time player.  His best chance to contribute is defensively and on the basepaths, but now he's hurting us defensively.  There is no long-term future for him at the position - Henderson and Holliday are better options.  He doesn't need to be a short-term option - Joey Ortiz can come in right now and can give us a glove-first SS at worst, if that's what we want.

This isn't 1974 Herb Washington Oakland A's territory.  For those wanting a baserunning specialist, that happened with 8 or 9 man pitching staffs.  That was 50 years ago. You only get 4 bench guys these days and one of them is your back-up catcher.  You don't carry a guy who gives you nothing for 5 months on the off chance that he's needed twice in the playoffs. 

April was fun, but it's time for him to go.

Good synopsis overall on the situation. The key portion is that he's incapable of even providing good defense when he's in a part-time role. That means he's not a good bench guy even if his positional versatility and speed should make him one. He struggled in that role in SD which led to his DFA and Orioles acquisition. Gunnar has proven he can play SS effectively and if they bring up Ortiz, they have that defense option late in games when Hyde likes to use match ups with certain players. 

It's time. This team is clearly competing for not just a playoff spot, but to go deep into October. Ortiz is a better player than Mateo and even in a part-time role, he can help the team even if his bat struggles in that role.

Saying that, I do think Ortiz can getting 3-4 or even 5 starts week in if Hyde is willing to continue to cut back Urias and Frazier's PAs.

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s really not obvious.  I have no problem releasing him, period.  But, even with everything Mateo is an above average defensive ML SS who can steal bases and hit decently against LHP.   That’s not an obvious DFA guy for pure baseball reasons.  He’s not going anywhere.  It’s simply not the Elias/Hyde M.O.     

 

We really don't know what Elias's M.O. is when trying to take a competing team and make it one that could go deep into October. He's never been in this situation so I don't think you can completely judge his potential actions by his previous actions. 

Mateo can be an above average defender at SS when he plays everyday, but we've seen him rally take a step back in that part-time role. I don't know if it's in his head that he's no longer a starter or what, but it's clear his defense has not been reliable late in games of late. 

[Alasdaire]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Care to elaborate? Frazier has a number of key hits. Mateo is a mess and if you don’t want to cut him it’s time to break a toenail. They need to try to fix his swing.

 

it’s just my two cents but I think his struggles and reduced role are hurting his defense.

The goal is no longer to achieve a respectable baseline since this team is going to make the playoffs; so now you need to ask what a world-series winning roster looks like. Or you can say that whatever happens this year is gravy because the real focus is on the seasons going forward. How does Adam Frazier as a starter fit into either scheme? The only justification would be that his bat is enough to carry all of his other laggard skills for this year alone even if at the expense of development of guys for the years going forward. But I just find it difficult to believe that we couldn't replace his .723 OPS production, which is a perfectly fair indication of his career output.

Maybe I'm overlooking some scenarios where he could be useful as a pinch hitter off of the bench. If so, then fine, keep him as a bench guy over Jorge, I don't really care. My rationale was just that neither should start and Jorge's skills (speed and defense at SS) are more valuable off of the bench.