It was driving me nuts

[Baltimorecuse]

Short drive

Why are the O's  games above Pythagorean expectation?  Why is there variance Pythagorean expectation? The number crunchers call it luck. Looked a long time then it jumped out.    If you already know I apologize.

The O's have the highest variance, +6 to the upside of any team in baseball.  The next two teams are the Marlins, Brewers. and Reds at plus +5.  

The worst team against Pythag. is the Padres at -8.  

Then I saw what ties this all together.  It's one run games.  The O's, Marlins, and Brewers have the top winning percentage in baseball one run games.  The O's are at 66% 20-10.  

The Padres are the worst in baseball at 6-18.  

Pythag calls that luck.  

If you knew all this I guess I'm behind the curve.  

[Jim'sKid26]

@Baltimorecuse why isn't it still explained by luck? I'm sorry to be dense, but to me there is still quite a bit of luck involved. Please help me understand your point.

[dystopia]

Yeah, having a good record in 1-run games is often correlated with "luck". I remember this from 2012, we heard it every other day. I'm not sure how true it is, but there doesn't seem to be much correlation between the 1-run record and a team's overall record. Texas is 8-14. Miami is 24-10. Rays are 15-19. Braves are 16-12. Phillies are 22-14, and the Padres are 6-18. 

[owknows]

Pythagorean fans don't know how to calculate "no quit" in a team.

Call it heart... call it chemistry... call it luck... call it whatever you like...  Just call it.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yeah, having a good record in 1-run games is often correlated with "luck". I remember this from 2012, we heard it every other day. I'm not sure how true it is, but there doesn't seem to be much correlation between the 1-run record and a team's overall record. Texas is 8-14. Miami is 24-10. Rays are 15-19. Braves are 16-12. Phillies are 22-14, and the Padres are 6-18. 

It isn't have a good record in one run games.

It's having a significantly higher winning percentage in one run games compared to other games.

If a .600 team wins .605 in one run games that's not luck.  If a .500 team does, than yea, it's probably luck.  If the Padres win at a .495 clip and are 6-18 in one runs games, it's fair to say they've been unlucky.

[Aristotelian]

The times we have outperformed our projections the back end of the bullpen has been elite and that has given us an advantage in close games. Pretty sure that was the case in 2012, 2014, and 2016. If you add up our players WAR it may not be that impressive but if we can systematically deploy our WAR to win the majority of the close games it isnt just luck. Bullpen guys and pinch hitters are the main areas where that is the case and it has absolutely helped that we have Bautista and a deep bench 

[yark14]

Good managing.  Simple as that. 

[jcaponio]

Pythagorean record is based solely on run differential. It takes literally nothing else into account. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, yark14 said:

Good managing.  Simple as that. 

So it's good managing when say, a ball bounces out of bounds for a ground rule double stopping the runner on first from scoring?

Luck is part of baseball.

Simple as that.

[Aristotelian]

Bautista is #2 and Cano #12 in Win Probability Added. MIL and CIN are the other teams with two in that group and all of them are relievers. 

[Morgan423]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Short drive

Why are the O's  games above Pythagorean expectation?  Why is there variance Pythagorean expectation? The number crunchers call it luck. Looked a long time then it jumped out.    If you already know I apologize.

The O's have the highest variance, +6 to the upside of any team in baseball.  The next two teams are the Marlins, Brewers. and Reds at plus +5.  

The worst team against Pythag. is the Padres at -8.  

Then I saw what ties this all together.  It's one run games.  The O's, Marlins, and Brewers have the top winning percentage in baseball one run games.  The O's are at 66% 20-10.  

The Padres are the worst in baseball at 6-18.  

Pythag calls that luck.  

If you knew all this I guess I'm behind the curve.  

Expected record is a simple math function, based on the idea that a team with zero run differential should come out with a .500 record, all things equal.

You can try to fine tune the calculation to reduce statistical error, and that works to an extent. 

But the formula assumes a normal-statistically acquired run differential, so you can't account for the unnatural skewing of run differential caused by either:  A) Winning a bunch of close (say, one and two run) games and, when you lose, losing big (losing is still happening in fewer games) or B) Losing a bunch of close games, and when you win, you blow the opponent out (winning is still happening in fewer games).

Such teams are going to have a run differential that is worse or better than what's expected for their actual record, and will therefore be off on the pythag.   

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Good managing.  Simple as that. 

Impossible! I’ve read on here that Hyde is a terrible manager!

[btdart20]

A few factors as I see it:

1. Roster construct - Actually using a deep bench of R/L mix

2. Solid defense

3. The Mountain laughs at Pythagoras!

[yark14]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Impossible! I’ve read on here that Hyde is a terrible manager!

People are overthinking this...

Edited August 6, 2023 by yark14

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, yark14 said:

People are overthinking this...

People are underthinking this.