Competitive Window- 24' roster

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

If the alternative is either:

1. let your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game (Kjerstad) rot at AAA for a few more years

2. trade your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game

Then yes. 

I'm conservative with hoarding assets, but I have a hard time finding playing time for Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Cowser just by letting Frazier, Hicks, and Mateo walk. 

You are letting two 1B go.  But Kjerstad is not a good 1B currently.  His fielding percentage this season at 1B is 982.  That would rank last by a good margin.   Mountcastle FP 996.  O'Hearn 997.

Likewise  Kjerstad range in RF is poor at 1.83.  Santander is FP this season in RF is 2.27.  And he is considered slow.   

What Kjerstad is right now is  a DH in the majors. But he has only played  in 54 games in AAA.   He could play 40 more this season.  But Westburg played in 158 games in AAA before he got the call.

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

If the alternative is either:

1. let your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game (Kjerstad) rot at AAA for a few more years

2. trade your #2 overall draft pick and #25 ranked prospect in the game

Then yes. 

I'm conservative with hoarding assets, but I have a hard time finding playing time for Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Cowser just by letting Frazier, Hicks, and Mateo walk. 

Kjerstad is not the first baseman of the future.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, joelala said:

Rhys Hoskins on a prove-it deal?

Proving what? That Elias wants to troll us for another offseason?

[Sports Guy]

We will see how they end the season but as of right now, there is zero reason to be upset going into the season with a platoon of Mounty/OHearn as your first baseman.

Mayo is going to be ready sometime soon, perhaps even by OD but chances are, he gets more AAA time next year and then you go from there.

You add 2 starters this offseason. You add 1-2 more bullpen pitchers from outside the org.

Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins and Hays is your OF next year.

2 biggest roster questions are, do you trade Santander and when do you bring up Holliday?

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We will see how they end the season but as of right now, there is zero reason to be upset going into the season with a platoon of Mounty/OHearn as your first baseman.

Mayo is going to be ready sometime soon, perhaps even by OD but chances are, he gets more AAA time next year and then you go from there.

You add 2 starters this offseason. You add 1-2 more bullpen pitchers from outside the org.

Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins and Hays is your OF next year.

2 biggest roster questions are, do you trade Santander and when do you bring up Holliday?

Disagree with Mounty and O'Hearn. But not so strongly that I want to get someone to block Mayo in late '24 and beyond. Unless its someone like Bellinger who can slide to the OF when Mayo is ready.

Which two starters and from where? Do you think this team will spend on FA SPs? Many on this board don't.

Completely agree on needing two RPs.

I like that OF for 2024.

Holiday will force that issue IMHO. 

Trading Santander is a no brainer for me. 

[Billy F-Face3]

7 hours ago, joelala said:

Not a chance we overpay for someone like Snell nor do I want to. Hader will also be too rich for us. I think Flaherty for two or three years and then a big trade including at least one of our top 50 prospects is the far more likely outcome. Also wouldn’t mind another bat for O’Hearn regression insurance. 

I don't see any way they resign Flaherty. 

Even if they don't sign/trade for an upgrade in the pitching rotation, they will still have a look at some pitchers who are already in the organization. John Means, DL Hall, Chase McDermott, Cade Povich, and Justin Armbruester, will all be considered with the idea of giving them a Major League opportunity to start. Seth Johnson is another pitcher they have high hopes for, if he can rebound from Tommy John surgery.

[joelala]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Proving what? That Elias wants to troll us for another offseason?

Hoskins is more useful than Frazier.

But I fully expect us to nibble again this winter.  

[Matt Bennett]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad is not the first baseman of the future.

Is he the RF of the future in your eyes?

[joelala]

22 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I don't see any way they resign Flaherty. 

Even if they don't sign/trade for an upgrade in the pitching rotation, they will still have a look at some pitchers who are already in the organization. John Means, DL Hall, Chase McDermott, Cade Povich, and Justin Armbruester, will all be considered with the idea of giving them a Major League opportunity to start. Seth Johnson is another pitcher they have high hopes for, if he can rebound from Tommy John surgery.

I think you need AT LEAST one more proven commodity to go along with that group though. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

You are letting two 1B go.  But Kjerstad is not a good 1B currently.  His fielding percentage this season at 1B is 982.  That would rank last by a good margin.   Mountcastle FP 996.  O'Hearn 997.

Likewise  Kjerstad range in RF is poor at 1.83.  Santander is FP this season in RF is 2.27.  And he is considered slow.   

What Kjerstad is right now is  a DH in the majors. But he has only played  in 54 games in AAA.   He could play 40 more this season.  But Westburg played in 158 games in AAA before he got the call.

So many things affect range factor.  It’s worthless to compare RF of two players playing in different leagues, different stadiums, for different teams, behind different pitching staffs.  At a minimum, there are the following factors:

1.  What are the pitchers’ strikeout rates?  More strikeouts = fewer balls in play = lower range factor for the fielders.  

2.  Is the staff heavily right-handed or left-handed?   The more right-handed the staff, the more lefty batters in the lineup, the more balls hit to RF.

3.  Are the pitchers heavily ground ball pitchers or fly ball pitchers?  The more fly ball pitchers, the higher the range factors for the outfielders.   

4.  What are the field dimensions?   Generally, the bigger the outfield dimensions, and the more foul territory there is, the higher the range factor of the outfielders will be.  

Now, I don’t know how sone of these factors affect Santander vs. Kjerstad.  But I do know that because of issues like these, the sabermetrics community basically stopped using Range Factor as a good measure of range more than two decades ago.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Range_factor

 

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Is he the RF of the future in your eyes?

Yes

[Uli2001]

13 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

I am not in favor of signing a position player via FA. I like the idea of sprinkling in our top prospects. I am done with the Adam Fraizers/Gibsons of the world. I'd like to see Kjerstad on the OD roster and have him in the OF rotation. I think one of Mullins, Hays and Santander are traded this offseason. MCCann is an okay back up but I think if they want to play the back up as much as they have, there needs to be an upgrade. I'd like to see Mountcastle replaced. He isn't consistent enough offensively for a 1B and his numbers are inflated by his reidiculous success against the Blue Jays. I'd like to see Ortiz as our SS until Jackson is ready. He may be ready on OD 2024. This team doesn't need FA unless they sign a true ace. To be transparaarent, I don't like gambling on FA signings. They more often than not don't provide the value needed for the O's 

They should keep Mullins and Santander, lose Hays. Mountcastle played himself back into the picture after returning from the DL. It's not just the Blue Jays, of course. This is an insider joke on the board. I am surprised you took it seriously.

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes

Hmm. We’ll see. I don’t think they would have introduced him to 1B if this was the case. Seems to me he is getting the Mountcastle treatment. 

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Hmm. We’ll see. I don’t think they would have introduced him to 1B if this was the case. Seems to me he is getting the Mountcastle treatment. 

They introduced it but it’s not like he’s playing there all the time/everyday.

The Orioles like versatility in their players. Lots of their players play different positions.

It doesn’t make sense to make him the first baseman and not Mayo.

[brucewayne]

Mullins is a great piece for the 2023, 2024 and perhaps 2025 team. But I see him as a peaking player who is injury prone. I don't worry about players in their early 30s. It's 33+ that you want worry about. Mullins injury history changes that though. The idea of paying big money to a guy who has an injury history with his legs is enough to put me off any extension.