O's 2024 Payroll using MLBTR and Cots

[wildcard]

This is the O's average salaries from these two sites.  Rounded to nearest .05

12.1M Santander  

6.6M  Mullins

5.95M  Hays

5M  Means

4M  McCann

3.5M  Mountcastle

2.95M  O'Hearn

2.8M  Mateo

2.15M  Wells 

2.1M  Coulombe

1.65M  Irvin

1.55M Tate

1.3 Perez

1.2 Webb

1M Bautista

900K Akin

7.4M   Hicks and 9 others at 740K

62.15M Total

1.9 Urias traded and 780K McKenna non tendered

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

Looks like Cots’ Arb estimates are a little lower than MLBTR’s for most of our guys, at least the big ones?   I certainly think they’re much closer on Means. 

[wildcard]

I made an adjustments to the OP.

 

I added Akin to the list.  He only spent 17 days in the minors on option and has over 3 years of service time.   He has one option left which may keep him on the 40 man roster.  He had a bad 2023 but his 2022 was 3-3  3.20 ERA, 81.2 IP,  69 H, 20 BB, 77K, 1.090 WHIP.   That is a nice lefty to be able to shuttle between AAA and the majors for 900K.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Orioles0615]

Rochs article this morning already said its going to be interesting what the do with Santander given he may make north of 12 million. 

 

Its going to be a long depressing offseason if 12 million is breaking the bank

[wildcard]

i don't think O's ownership or management are bothered by 12M for Santander.  They paid 10M for Gibson last fall.   12M is pretty much in line for the Orioles salary structure.

I think the evaluation of Santander is more about him being a FA after the 2024 season.   Are they OK with offering him a Quality Offer of 20m after the 2024 season and getting a draft choice after the 1st round?   

Santander, if healthy after the 2024 season will probably want a multi year deal that will be several times more that 1/20M.   Therefore he is unlikely to accept a 1/20M offer.  The risk in the whole approaches is will Santander be healthy at that point.  Or is it less risky  to trade him this off season.

Balance that against the risk of hurting the O's offense in the 2024 season by trading him away.   And his trade value now may be more than a single draft choice.

I am sure this issues are being discussion by the O's front office and with ownership.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

I think it is more of a middle ground.

They could pay Santander 12M but they'd rather allocate that money differently.

 

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is more of a middle ground.

They could pay Santander 12M but they'd rather allocate that money differently.

 

My guess is that the O's management values Santander's offensive production and don't want to have to replace it.  The O's were 7th in runs scored in the MLB in 2023.   They will be driving for a WS win next year.  There would like to move up from 7th not down.   Santander is a pretty key player to the offense.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is that the O's management values Santander's offensive production and don't want to have to replace it.  The O's were 7th in runs scored in the MLB in 2023.   They will be driving for a WS win next year.  There would like to move up from 7th not down.   Santander is a pretty key player to the offense.

I think they need to make room for the young talent bubbling up.

 

[panick]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is that the O's management values Santander's offensive production and don't want to have to replace it.  The O's were 7th in runs scored in the MLB in 2023.   They will be driving for a WS win next year.  There would like to move up from 7th not down.   Santander is a pretty key player to the offense.

I think they should win a playoff game first!

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they need to make room for the young talent bubbling up.

 

2nd and 3rd may be wide open next year.   Westburg, Ortiz, Holliday and Mayo fighting it out for playing time.  All 4 have options.  None  of them guaranteed to play in the majors all year unless they earn it.

Edited October 15, 2023 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they need to make room for the young talent bubbling up.

 

They haven't proven they are as good as Santander. 

 

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I made an adjustments to the OP.

 

I added Akin to the list.  He only spent 17 days in the minors on option and has over 3 years of service time.   He has one option left which may keep him on the 40 man roster.  He had a bad 2023 but his 2022 was 3-3  3.20 ERA, 81.2 IP,  69 H, 20 BB, 77K, 1.090 WHIP.   That is a nice lefty to be able to shuttle between AAA and the majors for 900K.

Akin is terrible. 2022 is an outlier and even then he was very streaky and did not finish strong. He basically hasn't been good ever except for a 3 month stretch. I hope to see him nontendered, certainly before McKenna. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

I don’t think it’s right to assume Urias will be traded, although there’s a good chance one player amongst Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo could be and that will reduce the payroll. 

The constraining factor to the Orioles’ offseason will likely be their unwillingness to give long multi-year contracts to SP (or RP), not the actual 2024 payroll. Given their tremendous depth, there are only so many roster spots that they can seek to improve, barring a very unexpected large-scale trade.

In other words, even with the 2024 payroll likely to only be a modest increase from last year, there’s not a huge difference between accommodating a 3-5 year contract at a ~$20M AAV for a Gray or Montgomery type SP vs. another ~$10M 1 year deal for a Gibson equivalent. I bet that ~$10M difference is still within the 2024 budget.

There’s not multiple holes they need to fill where they really need to spread out their available 2024 payroll space, they could concentrate it all in a single SP. It will instead be their hesitance to commit a large guaranteed amount over many years to any one pitcher that holds them back, whether that comes as an edict from Angelos or Elias’ own personal philosophies.

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they need to make room for the young talent bubbling up.

 

You could do that by moving Hays.  My sense of things is Santander is the bridge between the Hispanic players and the other players in the clubhouse.  He is also their scariest non-Gunnar bat. 

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, baltfan said:

You could do that by moving Hays.  My sense of things is Santander is the bridge between the Hispanic players and the other players in the clubhouse.  He is also their scariest non-Gunnar bat. 

28 year old Hays is an All-Star in 2023.  He has an 853 OPS in the 1st half.  He did not make an error in left field all year.  He has a strong, accurate arm that many do not run on in the league.  I will not be surprised if he is a GG finalist.  He did not have a great offensive 2nd half but was playing through injuries when he probably should have be sitting and healing.

The question is do the O's have a replacement that can match that performance in a year the O's are going for the WS?   Kjerstad does not have the speed to play LF in Camden Yard.   And Cowser is unproven.  

Trading Hays comes with a pretty big risk.   IMO the best way to manage that risk is keep Hays and when he gets banged up IL him for 10 days or two weeks or a month and promote Cowser for that  period.  Breaking Cowser in slowly when trying to replace Hays or Mullins or Santander, seem like a better approach during a contending season.

[Can_of_corn]

When you mention an outfielder went errorless it makes you look like you are digging deep for a positive and weakens your argument.