Now that the bar has been raised, what’s your definition of a successful season in 2024?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Meh. People said the same thing last year and they did nothing in the off-season. I could see a step back to 90ish wins, but I would t consider that a big step backwards

Well 90ish wins could mean 88 or 92 right?

That means there’s a chance they miss the playoffs, which imo, would be a big step back.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well 90ish wins could mean 88 or 92 right?

That means there’s a chance they miss the playoffs, which imo, would be a big step back.

Absolutely.   Except in very extreme circumstances, I’d view missing the playoffs in 2024 as a failure.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Absolutely.   Except in very extreme circumstances, I’d view missing the playoffs in 2024 as a failure.   

That's where I'm at with my expectations for next season barring some unforeseen circumstances. I'd settle for an 87 win team and making a deep postseason run over winning more games and then getting bounced right away.

Obviously winning more the regular season games is preferred, but since 1983 the Orioles have only been to the ALCS three times with the last being 2014. This group looks special and they'll have success in the playoffs eventually (well barring JA meddling).

[waroriole]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well 90ish wins could mean 88 or 92 right?

That means there’s a chance they miss the playoffs, which imo, would be a big step back.

Yeah that’s true. They could play similar to this year and, with much worse luck, finish with 88 wins and miss the playoffs. I’d still feel positive on the overall outlook, but it would have a very 2013 feel to it. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah that’s true. They could play similar to this year and, with much worse luck, finish with 88 wins and miss the playoffs. I’d still feel positive on the overall outlook, but it would have a very 2013 feel to it. 

Their Pythagorean theorem record was 94-68, 7 wins worse than what they ended up with.

However, that is largely with Felix and it got built up some in Sept when you are playing teams that may just be playing out the stretch, teams trying out players, etc…

Its not a stretch to say that the Os, without Felix, “should” have been an 84-90 win team in 2023.

Thats still a good season and better than I thought they would do (right @BRobinsonfan? ) but obviously well short of what they actually were.

As you said, it’s very 2013 (or 2015). You would like to believe that the youth and all the talent we have will overcome that and it certainly may but you also have to wonder if we will be as healthy this year. Will guys develop in the Same manner? How do you really replace Felix?
 

To me, that’s why it’s imperative to make some bigger moves and not just assume the best again.

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Their Pythagorean theorem record was 94-68, 7 wins worse than what they ended up with.

However, that is largely with Felix and it got built up some in Sept when you are playing teams that may just be playing out the stretch, teams trying out players, etc…

Its not a stretch to say that the Os, without Felix, “should” have been an 84-90 win team in 2023.

Thats still a good season and better than I thought they would do (right @BRobinsonfan? ) but obviously well short of what they actually were.

As you said, it’s very 2013 (or 2015). You would like to believe that the youth and all the talent we have will overcome that and it certainly may but you also have to wonder if we will be as healthy this year. Will guys develop in the Same manner? How do you really replace Felix?
 

To me, that’s why it’s imperative to make some bigger moves and not just assume the best again.

I think you give Felix a little too much credit in what actually occurred. Also, I’d be surprised if adding Hall and Wells to the bullpen full time didn’t improve its overall value next year. As great as Felix was this year, the bullpen was a real struggle minus the great start Cano had this year. It wouldn’t hurt to seek out a reliable bullpen arm in FA, but I don’t see that steep of a regression due to one player. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think you give Felix a little too much credit in what actually occurred. Also, I’d be surprised if adding Hall and Wells to the bullpen full time didn’t improve its overall value next year. As great as Felix was this year, the bullpen was a real struggle minus the great start Cano had this year. It wouldn’t hurt to seek out a reliable bullpen arm in FA, but I don’t see that steep of a regression due to one player. 

Remember, I said “should”. Defining should as pythag record. Their Pythagorean record was 94 wins…I think the definitely could have been far worse in that category without Felix.
 

But the value of an excellent closer and how he shuts down the games at the end can’t be measured imo. There is so much more when it comes to roles, not losing those close games, etc…the mental aspect of things when you have an elite closer can’t be measured by WAR. We see it a lot. Teams can fall apart if the back end of the pen isn’t successful. 

And maybe those guys make the pen better overall. I agree it’s possible And if they are able to replace Felix, that will make everything much easier.

But they have to show it on the field and you are, unquestionably, entering the off-season as a worse team because he’s not there.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Their Pythagorean theorem record was 94-68, 7 wins worse than what they ended up with.

However,

 

They also performed overly well in "clutch" situations which positively impacted their runs scored. 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They also performed overly well in "clutch" situations which positively impacted their runs scored. 

Good point and as we all know, that’s not a sustainable skill or at the very least, it’s one you should count on a year in, year out basis.

[glenn__davis]

Yes, I think it is very possible, and even likely, that they are a better team next year but with a worse record.  The Yankees and Red Sox will likely improve.  TB and TOR don't seem to be going anywhere.  BAL also had a very healthy pitching staff all things considered.

I would expect them to be in the 90-95 win range next year, which should be enough to compete for a WC and possibly the division again depending on how other teams perform.

[RZNJ]

I do agree the team could be stronger overall and have a worse record.  I love Felix Bautista as much as anyone.  I agree that the psychological effect and trickle down of a dominant closer is incalculable.  Injuries are unpredictable but we’ve had two pretty good years there despite losing our ace at the time in Means and the best closer in the game the last two years.

I will say that there’s a good chance this team is better on paper April 1 2024 than it was April 1 2023.
 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I do agree the team could be stronger overall and have a worse record.  I love Felix Bautista as much as anyone.  I agree that the psychological effect and trickle down of a dominant closer is incalculable.  Injuries are unpredictable but we’ve had two pretty good years there despite losing our ace at the time in Means and the best closer in the game the last two years.

I will say that there’s a good chance this team is better on paper April 1 2024 than it was April 1 2023.   
 

 

I shuffled the dates forward, but yeah, agreed.

Grayson, Bradish, and Gunnar making the strides they did in 2023 makes a huge difference as we head into 2024.  Having two plus guys at the top of the rotation, a plus guy behind the plate, and a plus guy on the left side of the IF goes a long way.  We only had 1 of those positions checked off heading into 2023.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

 

I will say that there’s a good chance this team is better on paper April 1 2023 than it was April 1 2022.   
 

For sure….but how about April 1 2024?  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For sure….but how about April 1 2024?  

I lost a year somewhere!  Lol

 

[Sports Guy]

If the Orioles made every move I want them to, I still wouldn’t predict them to win more games in 2024 than they did in 2023. 
 

So yea, being better but having a worse record is easily in play imo.

But it’s the “we are a better team” part that I’m worried about.