Westburg - Unlucky in home run department

[RZNJ]

Apparently where and when is very important.  I’m not sure how much meaning to attach to this but on Baseball Savant it lists actual home runs verses how many home runs if all games were played in a particular park.

Westburg hit 3 homers.   It would have been 4 if all games were played at OPACY.  Now for some interesting numbers based on other stadiums.

Seattle and Cincy - 9 expected home runs.  
 

San Diego/Philly/Houston/ChWS/TB  - 7 

Twins/Yankees - 6

Only stadiums with 3 or less:
 

Clev/Oakland - 3

Cubs/Cards/Mets/KC/Mil -2

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bemorewins]

I’m sure we can do this for just about any other player who didn’t have great success for whatever reason, couldn’t we? 

If this guy didn’t have to play this park, if that pitcher got to play behind that defense, etc.

The problem is that Westburg will have to continue to play 81 games (or however many that he is in the lineup) at Camden Yards. To my knowledge, there are no plans to change the LF dimensions, so he is going to have to adjust because the park won’t.

[emmett16]

He hit a ball 111+mph in Oakland so hard and so low it hit the outfield fence faster and harder than anything I can remember.  It did seem like he hit some balls to the wrong part of the park a few times.  I was pleased with his debut.  I expect a big year from him next year.  

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m sure we can do this for just about any other player who didn’t have great success for whatever reason, couldn’t we? 

If this guy didn’t have to play this park, if that pitcher got to play behind that defense, etc.

The problem is that Westburg will have to continue to play 81 games (or however many that he is in the lineup) at Camden Yards. To my knowledge, there are no plans to change the LF dimensions, so he is going to have to adjust because the park won’t.

He would have had 4 homers if he had played every game at OPACY.   Not a big deal but I think it shows a little bit of bad luck.

I checked Mountcastle for the same thing.  He had 18 homers and his expected homers ranged from 16-22 for every park except 1.  Considering the amount of AB’s Westburg’s variance from actual homers to expected homers seems pretty high.

Edited November 5, 2023 by RZNJ

[Number5]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Only stadiums with 3 or less:
 

Clev/Oakland - 3

Cubs/Cards/Mets/KC/Mil -2

 

Clev, Cubs, and Mil surprised me being on this list.  Especially Wrigley Field.  I never thought of Wrigley being a pitcher's park.

I think these numbers are a good example of why we need to take some stats in a SSS with a grain of salt.

[Frobby]

I’m certain that Westburg will hit more homers per PA next year.  I don’t think his low HR total was just a matter of repeatedly hitting tons of balls to the deepest part of our stadium.  He was just unlucky in general, looking at his spray charts.  3.9% HR/FB rate per BB-ref, compared to major league average of 9.5%.   It’s not because he doesn’t hit the ball hard.