Would you trade Cowser and Ortiz for Cease

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Keller has 2 years left. 

Nice catch 

[Jammer7]

I voted NO, but not an absolute. I think Cease is a quality pitcher, but it might be that he needs the right environment to be what he should be. Is he a good fit with Holt and staff? IDK. I would need a good thorough look at his medicals first. What does Holt say about him?

As far as the prospects, I actually do not mind trading Cowser at all. I am not as high on him as many here. Still think he is a no doubt major league player, I’m just not sure what his production looks like in Baltimore. I worry more about losing Ortiz than Cowser. 

[G54377]

No but I'd do it for 2 years of Corbin Burnes though (he doesn't have 2 years left, but just saying).

[OriolesMagic83]

34 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I voted NO, but not an absolute. I think Cease is a quality pitcher, but it might be that he needs the right environment to be what he should be. Is he a good fit with Holt and staff? IDK. I would need a good thorough look at his medicals first. What does Holt say about him?

As far as the prospects, I actually do not mind trading Cowser at all. I am not as high on him as many here. Still think he is a no doubt major league player, I’m just not sure what his production looks like in Baltimore. I worry more about losing Ortiz than Cowser. 

I'm not as big a believer in Holt as others, but it would nice to see what he could do with a pitcher with an elite arm instead of AAAA/waiver wire guys. 

[jamalshw]

I voted NO. I think there are better options out there that could be had. Cease has way better stuff than Gibson, but I'm not convinced he's that much of an upgrade. If the Orioles are sure they can do something to improve his command, then I could potentially be talked into that trade, but on the surface the walk rate scares me. He's got swing and miss stuff The walks are just too much. His epic 2022 was built largely on the 6.2 H:9 he had which is not sustainable. Would I want him on my team? Yes. But I don't know if that price is worth it to me given the command concerns. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Just curious. Most folks on here would rather part with Cowser than Kjerstad and some rankings like mlb and Baseball America have Cowser top 20 overall and rated higher than Kjerstad.   What are your feelings on Cowser and Ortiz for Cease?  

I could see that package also potentially working.  Cowser was a top 20 guy on most mid-season lists, although his stock probably took a dip from his initial cup of coffee.  Ultimately, I view him somewhat interchangeably with Kjerstad, although I like the latter’s offensive ceiling better.  It’s definitely within range of a fair offer IMO.

[StottyByNature]

I would do this trade.  Cease is the type of pitcher we need - someone who is clearly a playoff starter with the potential to dominate a game.

He is not a 4.58 ERA guy like in 2023 and he is not a 2.20 ERA guy like in 2022.  His FIP for both years has him in the mid-3's.  That is very valuable for two years and fills a desperate need of this team.  We have a number of good pitchers, we need someone with a high ceiling for the playoffs.  

I think the trade is fair - we have to give up something good but it makes sense to trade from surplus to fill a need.  

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m curious about what you think the Sox should be doing the next two years.  Can they restructure and be competitive in that window, or is this a 2+ year rebuilding project (in which case, Cease really should be traded now)?  And what do you think the biggest Sox problems are?  Bad defense is clearly one, as I’ve pointed out.  Is there a culture problem there?

IMO, the earliest the Sox can win is 2026 and it’s vital they cash in on Cease and get two pieces they can build around.  I fully expect 2024 to be a total disaster as our top minor leaguers won’t start hitting the majors until 2H or more so in 2025.  And hopefully by then we’ll have more financial flexibility to address gaps.

In terms of our problems, it all starts at the top with an owner that is behind the times and traditionally way too loyal to his front office.  He finally had enough and parted ways with our top two decision-makers, but then went and hired an internal guy who in my view isn’t remotely qualified.

Stepping a level lower, part of the issue is a generally poor strategy and execution.  We don’t focus on the things that are aligned with run creation such as OBP, swing decisions, and power and instead focused on contact (our previous hitting coach once said “F the HR”).  We don’t value defense and have 1B/DH types into the OF way too frequently.  And we lack a quality analytics and pitching lab function to fully unlock the potential of our young arms.  We’ll have to wait to see how much Getz addresses those issues, but him being an insular hire makes me nervous.

Those are the structural issues, but we also have some real clubhouse problems.  Pedro Grifol is a terrible manager who refuses to hold vets accountable and that becomes problematic when you have a few players that are lazy and/or divas.  We are quickly exiting some of those players, but are unfortunately stuck with Grifol for another year.  I fully expect him to be fired after the 2024 season and that should hopefully clear up the remaining clubhouse issues.

[interloper]

No.

I don't really like Cowser, but for me the upside and years of control of those 2 players still far outweighs whatever Cease could bring over the next 2 seasons. I'm not one to assume everyone who comes here will magically be better. The Orioles have gotten better at that lately, for sure. But it's no guarantee, as we saw with Irvin and Flaherty, Elias' two SP trades to date, neither of which worked out great.

Edited November 7, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

IMO, the earliest the Sox can win is 2026 and it’s vital they cash in on Cease and get two pieces they can build around.  I fully expect 2024 to be a total disaster as our top minor leaguers won’t start hitting the majors until 2H or more so in 2025.  And hopefully by then we’ll have more financial flexibility to address gaps.

In terms of our problems, it all starts at the top with an owner that is behind the times and traditionally way too loyal to his front office.  He finally had enough and parted ways with our top two decision-makers, but then went and hired an internal guy who in my view isn’t remotely qualified.

Stepping a level lower, part of the issue is a generally poor strategy and execution.  We don’t focus on the things that are aligned with run creation such as OBP, swing decisions, and power and instead focused on contact (our previous hitting coach once said “F the HR”).  We don’t value defense and have 1B/DH types into the OF way too frequently.  And we lack a quality analytics and pitching lab function to fully unlock the potential of our young arms.  We’ll have to wait to see how much Getz addresses those issues, but him being an insular hire makes me nervous.

Those are the structural issues, but we also have some real clubhouse problems.  Pedro Grifol is a terrible manager who refuses to hold vets accountable and that becomes problematic when you have a few players that are lazy and/or divas.  We are quickly exiting some of those players, but are unfortunately stuck with Grifol for another year.  I fully expect him to be fired after the 2024 season and that should hopefully clear up the remaining clubhouse issues.

Thanks for the thorough answer.  This is more or less what I thought, though I usually only see the Sox when they are playing the O’s.

One more question: do you think that the Sox strategy of locking up a lot of young players before their Arb years has contributed to some of the lack of discipline issues, or did they just get unlucky there?   I think the Sox have been the second-most active team in locking up young players over the last half a decade or so, but what has seemed to work so well for Atlanta hasn’t worked well for the Sox.  I sometimes have the feeling that these players are a little too comfortable with the $30 - $60 mm that has been guaranteed to them, and not sufficiently motivated to play for their next year’s contract or to improve.  It’s interesting to me as I puzzle over what the Orioles’ strategy should be regarding locking up young players.  

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

IMO, the earliest the Sox can win is 2026 and it’s vital they cash in on Cease and get two pieces they can build around.  I fully expect 2024 to be a total disaster as our top minor leaguers won’t start hitting the majors until 2H or more so in 2025.  And hopefully by then we’ll have more financial flexibility to address gaps.

In terms of our problems, it all starts at the top with an owner that is behind the times and traditionally way too loyal to his front office.  He finally had enough and parted ways with our top two decision-makers, but then went and hired an internal guy who in my view isn’t remotely qualified.

Stepping a level lower, part of the issue is a generally poor strategy and execution.  We don’t focus on the things that are aligned with run creation such as OBP, swing decisions, and power and instead focused on contact (our previous hitting coach once said “F the HR”).  We don’t value defense and have 1B/DH types into the OF way too frequently.  And we lack a quality analytics and pitching lab function to fully unlock the potential of our young arms.  We’ll have to wait to see how much Getz addresses those issues, but him being an insular hire makes me nervous.

Those are the structural issues, but we also have some real clubhouse problems.  Pedro Grifol is a terrible manager who refuses to hold vets accountable and that becomes problematic when you have a few players that are lazy and/or divas.  We are quickly exiting some of those players, but are unfortunately stuck with Grifol for another year.  I fully expect him to be fired after the 2024 season and that should hopefully clear up the remaining clubhouse issues.

What are some packages of players you’d expect/want from other teams for Cease?

[RZNJ]

Maybe but first!

Look into his medicals.

Want to know if O's can fix him. 

Need a crystal ball so I can look into the future.

 

[Osornot]

If they did this I would say yes as I have to believe there is a plan that is risk neutral, i.e. potential TOR or #2

[Three Run Homer]

I am willing to part with that package of players for a front-line starting pitcher; I might even add more outside of our top 10-15 prospects.  I just don't have enough confidence that Cease is that good based on his track record, so I voted no.    If Sig/Elias have analytics suggesting that Cease just needs a couple of tweaks to get back to being an ace, then I'd be all for it.  

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for the thorough answer.  This is more or less what I thought, though I usually only see the Sox when they are playing the O’s.

One more question: do you think that the Sox strategy of locking up a lot of young players before their Arb years has contributed to some of the lack of discipline issues, or did they just get unlucky there?   I think the Sox have been the second-most active team in locking up young players over the last half a decade or so, but what has seemed to work so well for Atlanta hasn’t worked well for the Sox.  I sometimes have the feeling that these players are a little too comfortable with the $30 - $60 mm that has been guaranteed to them, and not sufficiently motivated to play for their next year’s contract or to improve.  It’s interesting to me as I puzzle over what the Orioles’ strategy should be regarding locking up young players.  

I think it’s a mix of both.  I was a huge fan of every single extension at the time, but in hindsight I now fully realize they can be risky if you commit to the wrong guy.  Not all players are motivated by their own success.  IMO, Moncada & Eloy are both examples of that.  Don’t get me wrong, there was some bad luck as well.  Both have dealt with injuries (including some weird long Covid for Yoan), but most Sox fans feel these guys aren’t fully committed to be great.  Meanwhile, a guy like Robert gives it his all every day despite a massive signing bonus prior being a pro and a big extension thereafter.  To me, it all comes down to self scouting and knowing what makes your guys tick.  We failed in that regard whereas the Braves seem to have done amazing job of locking up the right guys.