Cease vs everyone else

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

3.50-4 is basically Dean Kremer, so I kind of agree with @dystopia. I'd love to have Cease come and be a better version of Dean Kremer, but Chicago can go kick rocks if they're asking for Ortiz and Cowser. 

The only problem with that rationale is that Cease's ceiling (which we have empirical proof of from 2022) is CY Young caliber/one of the best in the game. Kremer is no where near that level. Kremer did have a 21 start stretch of 3.21 ERA. But Cease's 2022 season was MILES BETTER THAN that! The man put up a 6.4 WAR with a 2.20 ERA and over 200Ks for the ENTIRE SEASON (not just 21 starts but 32).

[NCRaven]

My only issue with Cease is that we’ll be in the same position as the White Sox next off season.  Two years of control means we’ll be looking to trade him for a lesser return after ‘24.

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

My only issue with Cease is that we’ll be in the same position as the White Sox next off season.  Two years of control means we’ll be looking to trade him for a lesser return after ‘24.

Why? This team should be trying to win a championship in 2025. That would be more of a rebuilding move.

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The only problem with that rationale is that Cease's ceiling (which we have empirical proof of from 2022) is CY Young caliber/one of the best in the game. Kremer is no where near that level. Kremer did have a 21 start stretch of 3.21 ERA. But Cease's 2022 season was MILES BETTER THAN that! The man put up a 6.4 WAR with a 2.20 ERA and over 200Ks for the ENTIRE SEASON (not just 21 starts but 32).

It's very unlikely he'll have a season like that again. When people talk about "ceiling" it's usually just wishcasting. He had a very low BABIP that year, which is necessary to have that kind of ERA while leading the league in walks (see Blake Snell). Yes, it's technically *possible* that he could put up a 2.50 ERA in the next 2 years. It's also technically possible I could end up married to Victoria Justice. 

Both are highly improbable.

[NCRaven]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Why? This team should be trying to win a championship in 2025. That would be more of a rebuilding move.

Not true.  We’re talking about trading Santander since he only has one year of team control.  We’ll be in the same situation with Cease next year.  Trade him?  Try to extend him?  Let him walk at the end of his contact?  Qualifying offer?

Every team faces these questions, contenders and non-contenders.

I’m not saying don’t do it but it’s a consideration.  Personally, I’d rather trade for a pitcher with more control.  It will cost more but we have the talent base to pull that off.

Edited November 21, 2023 by NCRaven

[Bemorewins]

27 minutes ago, dystopia said:

It's very unlikely he'll have a season like that again. When people talk about "ceiling" it's usually just wishcasting. He had a very low BABIP that year, which is necessary to have that kind of ERA while leading the league in walks (see Blake Snell). Yes, it's technically *possible* that he could put up a 2.50 ERA in the next 2 years. It's also technically possible I could end up married to Victoria Justice. 

Both are highly improbable.

Pardon my ignorance but I have absolutely no idea who Victoria Justice is.

Now on to the baseball side of things, I think that you are most likely right in that Cease will not be a sub 2.50 ERA pitcher over the next 2 seasons. My post was more in comparing him to Kremer. I don't think there is much of a comparison. Cease is a #1 or #2. Kremer is a good/solid #5 due to his wild fluctuations within a given season. 

But again, my question is, if not Cease than who? Because IMO we need to improve the 2024 roster/rotation in a serious way. Standing pat IMO will be going backwards given the gulf sized hole that Bautista's absence makes.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You mention his stuff because his stuff is elite and it causes his ceiling to be higher.

But what you have actually done matters too.

Agreed …you have to mention both.

[interloper]

21 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Pardon my ignorance but I have absolutely no idea who Victoria Justice is.

Now on to the baseball side of things, I think that you are most likely right in that Cease will not be a sub 2.50 ERA pitcher over the next 2 seasons. My post was more in comparing him to Kremer. I don't think there is much of a comparison. Cease is a #1 or #2. Kremer is a good/solid #5 due to his wild fluctuations within a given season. 

But again, my question is, if not Cease than who? Because IMO we need to improve the 2024 roster/rotation in a serious way. Standing pat IMO will be going backwards given the gulf sized hole that Bautista's absence makes.

There are a few ways I see it going:

1. We acquire someone with hidden upside that no one was even remotely thinking about. 

2. We sign somebody pretty boring like Lorenzen or Wacha or Cueto. 

3. Both. 

 

Things I don't believe we will be doing:

1. Trading a big package of several top prospects for a #1/#2/#3 SP. 

2. Signing a pitcher for more than 2 years. 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by interloper

[Roll Tide]

57 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Why? This team should be trying to win a championship in 2025. That would be more of a rebuilding move.

Because our owner doesn’t want to spend $$$$$$$$$$$$. 

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, interloper said:

There are a few ways I see it going:

1. We acquire someone with hidden upside that no one was even remotely thinking about. 

2. We sign somebody pretty boring like Lorenzen or Wacha or Cueto. 

3. Both. 

 

Things I don't believe we will be doing:

1. Trading a big package of several top prospects for a #1/#2/#3 SP. 

2. Signing a pitcher for more than 2 years. 

 

If everything that you surmise is true (and it seems pretty reasonable in terms of predictable outcomes to me) then we are going to continue to operate like an org who has no serious plans for title contention. If we are not going to make meaningful moves within the Adley/Gunnar window, then the only hope for us to become a real first class organization who's realistic goal is the World Series, is after the forced sale of the team and we can get rid of the awful Angelos plague. 

[interloper]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

If everything that you surmise is true (and it seems pretty reasonable in terms of predictable outcomes to me) then we are going to continue to operate like an org who has no serious plans for title contention. If we are not going to make meaningful moves within the Adley/Gunnar window, then the only hope for us to become a real first class organization who's realistic goal is the World Series, is after the forced sale of the team and we can get rid of the awful Angelos plague. 

Correct. Elias will do everything he can to keep the winning seasons/talent pipeline going, at least, and he's very good at that. But he won't have the ability to add big chunks to the payroll outside of arbitration or short free agent deals. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Correct. Elias will do everything he can to keep the winning seasons/talent pipeline going, at least, and he's very good at that. But he won't have the ability to add big chunks to the payroll outside of arbitration or short free agent deals. 

We didn't have to do a protracted extreme tanking process if the goal was to simply be a "winning team". I guess I mistakenly believed that the goal for such a painful process was/is a World Series. I guess the joke continues to be on me? lol

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

We didn't have to do a protracted extreme tanking process if the goal was to simply be a "winning team". I guess I mistakenly believed that the goal for such a painful process was/is a World Series. I guess the joke continues to be on me? lol

I think there's still a good chance we get to a World Series even if we don't make a flashy move or two. We have an insane farm system, 2 excellent young SP in Bradish and Grayson, a solid lineup, and a good bullpen. Teams have gone farther with less, honestly. Look what we did last year with only buying Gibson and Frazier, and trading for McCann, and claiming O'Hearn. 

So, it's not like there's no hope we can do the damn thing. I'm just trying to set my own expectations. The realistic outcome is, sure, we will sign some guys and trade some guys. But this whole "massive prospect package" thing is rare in general for any team, first of all. And then secondly, there's just nothing about what Angelos and Elias have said over the last year or so that indicates they will play in the top half of the free agent market. But that doesn't mean we can't still add good, useful players. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think there's still a good chance we get to a World Series even if we don't make a flashy move or two. We have an insane farm system, 2 excellent young SP in Bradish and Grayson, a solid lineup, and a good bullpen. Teams have gone farther with less, honestly. Look what we did last year with only buying Gibson and Frazier, and trading for McCann, and claiming O'Hearn. 

So, it's not like there's no hope we can do the damn thing. I'm just trying to set my own expectations. The realistic outcome is, sure, we will sign some guys and trade some guys. But this whole "massive prospect package" thing is rare in general for any team, first of all. And then secondly, there's just nothing about what Angelos and Elias have said over the last year or so that indicates they will play in the top half of the free agent market. But that doesn't mean we can't still add good, useful players. 

What's good?  15%?

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What's good?  15%?

I don't know. As good as most other playoff teams. No one really thought it was going to be Rangers/D-Backs this year.