Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I suppose my next question would be... would you rather give up Kremer in a trade or both of Povich/McDermott?

First … I’m not giving up Cowser and Ortiz as I do not believe they are getting offered 2 top 50 guys by anyone else. So there is no need to add more than 1 additional prospect. If Elias traded Cowser and Ortiz with no sweetener I wouldn’t think he lost the trade. Anything more and it’s a loser IMO. 
 

In the end, I think one top 100 prospect and a couple other guys gets it done. They need to use him to rebuild. Holding on to him just reduces his value as the clock ticks.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I suppose my next question would be... would you rather give up Kremer in a trade or both of Povich/McDermott?

I would not consider doing either of those things in a trade for Cease.  

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you think Cease will rebound it makes more sense.  That would be a significant upgrade.

I still don’t …. Unless he agrees to an extension. If you give them Kremer. The value has to be beyond 2 seasons. Honestly even if you get 12 WAR out of Cease over 2 years you still most likely lose the trade.  Kremer is conservatively worth 8 WAR over his remaining 4 years. So one of Cowser/Ortiz would have to be a complete bust. If they both end up being solid MLB players it ends up being a terrible trade. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I still don’t …. Unless he agrees to an extension. If you give them Kremer. The value has to be beyond 2 seasons. Honestly even if you get 12 WAR out of Cease over 2 years you still most likely lose the trade.  Kremer is conservatively worth 8 WAR over his remaining 4 years. So one of Cowser/Ortiz would have to be a complete bust. If they both end up being solid MLB players it ends up being a terrible trade. 

I strongly disagree, if you get 12 wins out of Cease you are very likely going to the playoffs both years with pretty decent odds of doing well once you get there.

That is the goal right? 

Sometimes I'm not so sure everyone here thinks so.

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

First … I’m not giving up Cowser and Ortiz as I do not believe they are getting offered 2 top 50 guys by anyone else. So there is no need to add more than 1 additional prospect. If Elias traded Cowser and Ortiz with no sweetener I wouldn’t think he lost the trade. Anything more and it’s a loser IMO. 
 

In the end, I think one top 100 prospect and a couple other guys gets it done. They need to use him to rebuild. Holding on to him just reduces his value as the clock ticks.

Didnt quite answer the question. Do you value Kremer more than Povich AND McDermott? Because it seemed like you were opposed to dealing Kremer instead of prospects. Unless you meant all prospects and not just pitching prospects?

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I strongly disagree, if you get 12 wins out of Cease you are very likely going to the playoffs both years with pretty decent odds of doing well once you get there.

That is the goal right? 

Sometimes I'm not so sure everyone here thinks so.

The O's are very likely to go to the playoffs the next two years anyway.

[Jagwar]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would not consider doing either of those things in a trade for Cease.  

Then I'm pretty sure the O's won't acquire Cease or anyone like him. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The O's are very likely to go to the playoffs the next two years anyway.

We can play at what "very likely" means but I'll just say I'd rather have a pitcher that put up a 6 win season in my playoff rotation than Kremer.

 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We can play at what "very likely" means but I'll just say I'd rather have a pitcher that put up a 6 win season in my playoff rotation than Kremer.

 

Yeah, if Cease was guaranteed to put up six wins that would change the equation dramatically.

But he isn't.  So it doesn't.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Then I'm pretty sure the O's won't acquire Cease or anyone like him. 

I’m taking about giving up two prospects (Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz) in addition to either Kremer or Povich AND McDermott.  I don’t think we should do it, and I don’t think it’s necessary to do it.  If that is what it would take, I’d rather not have Cease, because it would be a stupid move.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Yeah, if Cease was guaranteed to put up six wins that would change the equation dramatically.

But he isn't.  So it doesn't.

That wasn't my scenario you know...

 

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Didnt quite answer the question. Do you value Kremer more than Povich AND McDermott? Because it seemed like you were opposed to dealing Kremer instead of prospects. Unless you meant all prospects and not just pitching prospects?

Povich and McDermott are just prospects, so no! Kremer is a proven MLB starter. 
 

Im fine dealing prospects…. I’m not doing more than the combined value of Cowser and Ortiz. I think a deal is closer to Cowser, Beaver, and Povich. If they were willing to deal Robert I’d send Bradfield and a couple others but it doesn’t sound like it 

[Roll Tide]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I strongly disagree, if you get 12 wins out of Cease you are very likely going to the playoffs both years with pretty decent odds of doing well once you get there.

That is the goal right? 

Sometimes I'm not so sure everyone here thinks so.

12 is the best case… and I’m betting it’s closer to 8. If Cease does better than 8 WAR over the next 2 seasons regardless to where he is I’ll meet and buy you a cold one at Pickles.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

12 is the best case… and I’m betting it’s closer to 8. If Cease does better than 8 WAR over the next 2 seasons regardless to where he is I’ll meet and buy you a cold one at Pickles.

That's OK.

I'm not even advocating for the trade, just saying it can make sense.

I don't think he will put up 12 wins.

Eight?  Well he put up 8.6 rWAR and 8.1 fWAR over the last two seasons so I think eight is in reach.

[emmett16]

Is the cost for Burnes supposed to be more than Cease?  I’d prefer the bonfire ace if all things are the same.  I’d want someone to start each series, not be the stopper in game three.  Cease floor scares me a bit if reported asks are true.