Cease vs everyone else

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I don't follow this thread anymore because I think it's informative. I follow it because I think it is just plain funny and wonder how long it can go on rehashing the same over and over. Someone said 300 pages? Elias, please do something - anything to change the narrative.  Personally, I don't want Cease - particularly now cause I'm sick of the name.  

If that's how we feel, I gotta wonder how Elias feels.  Being dragged along for a month or so, probably more.  Getz trying to get his grubby little paws on a top flight prospect and Elias having to smack him down every which way.  It's probably exhausting and annoying.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Westburg, Norby, Beavers and Povich. That’s the offer Im putting on the table.

I was just thinking this is the max offer I would pull the trigger on. I think that’s worth more than Cease, but it’s a deal that makes sense for the Orioles’ position. If the White Sox can get more than that from another team then I won’t begrudge Elias for it.

I think it would still be a fair deal if it were Ortiz instead of Westburg, or Westburg and 2 of Norby/Beavers/Povich.

[deward]

2 hours ago, brooooksy said:

I don’t get this type of take. In Cowser’s 95th percentile outcome he becomes as good as Hays. It’s not our money, so why get rid of proven talent following up a 101 win season?

It's an allocation of resources question for me. If Cowser can approximate what Hays gives you (and I think the odds of him doing that are better than you seem to think), then let him do that, move Hays for something useful, and reallocate the payroll to an area of need. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I don't follow this thread anymore because I think it's informative. I follow it because I think it is just plain funny and wonder how long it can go on rehashing the same over and over. Someone said 300 pages? Elias, please do something - anything to change the narrative.  Personally, I don't want Cease - particularly now cause I'm sick of the name.  

I never thought this thread would go 200 pages.  You can book 300 pages if the Orioles don't make a major move this month and Cease is still available.

 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

It's an allocation of resources question for me. If Cowser can approximate what Hays gives you (and I think the odds of him doing that are better than you seem to think), then let him do that, move Hays for something useful, and reallocate the payroll to an area of need. 

Sure.  Hays was just an All Star last year and finished top 3 in the Gold Glove.  Cowser struggled in the OF, and couldn't make contact.  It's pretty reasonable to just expect Cowser to replicate Hays next year.  What does Hays even bring back in a trade at this point?  He might be our Santander next year.  We just let him play out his deal. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, deward said:

It's an allocation of resources question for me. If Cowser can approximate what Hays gives you (and I think the odds of him doing that are better than you seem to think), then let him do that, move Hays for something useful, and reallocate the payroll to an area of need. 

I understand what you’re saying, but beyond the odds of it happening (which I agree with as being pretty good), Hays is a proven LF right now, on opening day.

i also don’t think it’s fun or necessary to argue the merits of reducing the incredibly low orioles payroll. Like, we’re all here talking about fantasy trades and now we’re discussing how much extra should go to John Angelos? The Orioles can afford Austin Hays’ salary.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sure.  Hays was just an All Star last year and finished top 3 in the Gold Glove.  Cowser struggled in the OF, and couldn't make contact.  It's pretty reasonable to just expect Cowser to replicate Hays next year.  What does Hays even bring back in a trade at this point?  He might be our Santander next year.  We just let him play out his deal. 

Exactly this - Hays isn’t likely to fetch much in a trade, but we wouldn’t pay a free agent as good as him fair market value either. I don’t know why we need to trade talent under team control from a 101 win team to kick the can further down the road.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m one who believes Westburg and Ortiz could provide similar on field value, albeit likely in different ways.

However, I’m also of the belief that Westburg currently has similar value to Cowser and Kjerstad, 2 top 35ish prospects.

I can’t see trading 2 of those guys plus more to get Cease.

Westburg, Norby, Beavers and Povich. That’s the offer Im putting on the table.

Still too much!

[deward]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sure.  Hays was just an All Star last year and finished top 3 in the Gold Glove.  Cowser struggled in the OF, and couldn't make contact.  It's pretty reasonable to just expect Cowser to replicate Hays next year.  What does Hays even bring back in a trade at this point?  He might be our Santander next year.  We just let him play out his deal. 

An All-Star GG-finalist with 2 two years of reasonably priced control remaining sounds like an asset with some value to me. Cowser doesn't need to duplicate Hays in year one in order for the O's to win 95 games, he just needs to be competent, which his entire track record, aside from 77 bad plate appearances in his first MLB trial, says should be well within his grasp. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

Exactly this - Hays isn’t likely to fetch much in a trade, but we wouldn’t pay a free agent as good as him fair market value either. I don’t know why we need to trade talent under team control from a 101 win team to kick the can further down the road.

Tommy Pham.

That is a reasonable comp for Austin Hays among current free agent OFs.

You don't think the Orioles would be willing to play in the Tommy Pham end of the FA swimming pool?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Tommy Pham.

That is a reasonable comp for Austin Hays among current free agent OFs.

You don't think the Orioles would be willing to play in the Tommy Pham end of the FA swimming pool?

Tommy Pham is 7 years older than Hays, hasn’t been really good in 5 years, can’t play defense and Hays had a much better this year. Not a comparison

Hays would get a 2-4 year deal on the market today, even as most teams seem to be spend less and less. Elias still hasn’t signed a guy for more than 1 year, so no, I don’t think we would be willing.

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I never thought this thread would go 200 pages.  You can book 300 pages if the Orioles don't make a major move this month and Cease is still available.

 

Quoted so @Can_of_corncan see it. 

I do like Lay It Down better, though.  Killer riffs, weird video but it has the all-time smoke Marianne Gravatte in it.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Still too much!

Yeah but I remember years ago that you thought we didn't get enough for Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar.  So the expectations are pretty high.  

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Quoted so @Can_of_corncan see it. 

I do like Lay It Down better, though.  Killer riffs, weird video but it has the all-time smoke Marianne Gravatte in it.  

 

One of my first musical purchases.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

24 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

Tommy Pham is 7 years older than Hays, hasn’t been really good in 5 years, can’t play defense and Hays had a much better this year. Not a comparison

Hays would get a 2-4 year deal on the market today, even as most teams seem to be spend less and less. Elias still hasn’t signed a guy for more than 1 year, so no, I don’t think we would be willing.

You said:

42 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

we wouldn’t pay a free agent as good as him fair market value

All of that other stuff like age, contract length, and your opinion about whether or not Pham should play in the field is kind of extraneous to whether or not the Orioles would sign a free agent who could roughly replicate Hays' modest value. They're both LFs with low OBPs but still slightly above average overall offense and less than good defense. Hays was worth 2.5 rWAR in 520 PAs last year, Pham 1.5 rWAR in 481 PAs. The biggest difference is probably that Hays is better in the field, while Pham steals more bags. 

All in all, a perfectly reasonable comp in this situation.

Not perfect. Not even necessarily very good. But reasonable.