Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

I guess it's true what they say: it's not what you know but who you know. 

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

If you think Kjerstad has a good chance to be a perennial 35-40 HR guy for us and Ortiz's elite-ish defensive rep at SS is for real, then the second package is easily the way to go. No one in that one can match those 2 big time tools.

(I would not do either package FWIW)

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

You said:

All of that other stuff like age, contract length, and your opinion about whether or not Pham should play in the field is kind of extraneous to whether or not the Orioles would sign a free agent who could roughly replicate Hays' modest value. They're both LFs with low OBPs but still slightly above average overall offense and less than good defense. Hays was worth 2.5 rWAR in 520 PAs last year, Pham 1.5 rWAR in 481 PAs. The biggest difference is probably that Hays is better in the field, while Pham steals more bags. 

All in all, a perfectly reasonable comp in this situation.

Not perfect. Not even necessarily very good. But reasonable.

Putting aside for a second that 1 war is a big difference (66% greater than Pham; Fangraphs calls 1-2 war a “role player” and 2-3 a “solid starter”, for example)- We haven’t paid a FA as good as him fair market value in a very long time.

[ScGO's]

I still think Cowser, Ortiz, McDermott is fair. Wonder if that's enough

[wildbillhiccup]

46 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Quoted so @Can_of_corncan see it. 

I do like Lay It Down better, though.  Killer riffs, weird video but it has the all-time smoke Marianne Gravatte in it.  

 

I could never get into hair metal or even grunge to a lesser extent, but my inner emo man-child does like this version of Round and Round. 

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, brooooksy said:

Putting aside for a second that 1 war is a big difference (66% greater than Pham; Fangraphs calls 1-2 war a “role player” and 2-3 a “solid starter”, for example)- We haven’t paid a FA as good as him fair market value in a very long time.

I think you are overestimating the value of 2-3 WAR COFs a bit is ultimately my main point here. Hays is a nice piece to have, but he's far from irreplaceable or even hard-to-replace. 

Also, his Baseball Savant page makes me think that trading him now will look pretty good in hindsight.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I still think Cowser, Ortiz, McDermott is fair. Wonder if that's enough

That seems reasonable to me too. I mentioned this i a prior post, but I honestly don't understand why the Sox wouldn't be more interested in Cowser than Kjerstad since they already have two good hitting/poor defensive players on their team in Andrew Vaughn and ELoy Jimenez. I mean, unless they're looking to corner the market on DHs. 

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I still think Cowser, Ortiz, McDermott is fair. Wonder if that's enough

I don’t like giving them 2 top 100. And they have been rumored to want 2 other better prospects. 

[Spy Fox]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wait.  When I said I would do Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich and basically got a lot of hell no.  SG proposes Westburg, Norby, Beavers, and Povich and a lot more people to be on board with it.  Interesting.   I like Westburg a lot.  I think the second package is giving up as much value if not more.

If Holliday/Mayo/Basallo, are Tier 1 of our system, I think there's a common perception of Cowser/Kjerstad/Ortiz/Westburg as Tier 2. Norby/Beavers/Povich and others are considered Tier 3+.

It may or may not be right, but I think trades that involve only one of those Tier 2-ers will be easier for people to accept. 

[DirtyBird]

11 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I still think Cowser, Ortiz, McDermott is fair. Wonder if that's enough

That is too much. McDermott could easily be as good as Cease. 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

They certainly aren't getting either for Cease. The issue over there is they keep insisting that people were saying Ortiz would headline a deal and it was always Cowser who is a top 20 prospect or Kjerstad who is just below him *plus* Ortiz. They are just too stupid to realize that and keep saying Ortiz is the headliner. They deserve a trade with the Yankees for some overrated prospects that bust, it's their destiny.

I mean they might could reasonably hope for Cowser or Kjerstad, but I wouldn’t make that trade. And they wouldn’t be getting Ortiz in addition to one of those guys. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If Holliday/Mayo/Basallo, are Tier 1 of our system, I think there's a common perception of Cowser/Kjerstad/Ortiz/Westburg as Tier 2. Norby/Beavers/Povich and others are considered Tier 3+.

It may or may not be right, but I think trades that involve only one of those Tier 2-ers will be easier for people to accept. 

This is kind of an interesting exercise. I found that for me, it's more like:

Tier 1- Holliday, Basallo

Tier 2- Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser

Tier 2.5- Westburg

Tier 3- Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, McDermott, Norby, Fabian, Horvath

And so on.

Had a bit of trouble deciding where to place Westburg- he felt too good and too "proven" to place down with the Norby's and Povich's but not quite good enough to place among the Mayo's and Cowser's, thus his own little sub-tier.

I would not trade anyone above Tier 2.5 for Cease and I would not budge, but I would be willing to include guys from Tier 2.5 on down.

 

[Spy Fox]

22 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

That is too much. McDermott could easily be as good as Cease. 

Easily? I think that really overstates the chances of McDermott becoming an MLB rotation mainstay. 

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If Holliday/Mayo/Basallo, are Tier 1 of our system, I think there's a common perception of Cowser/Kjerstad/Ortiz/Westburg as Tier 2. Norby/Beavers/Povich and others are considered Tier 3+.

It may or may not be right, but I think trades that involve only one of those Tier 2-ers will be easier for people to accept. 

I think that's pretty close.  I think Norby + Beavers > Ortiz.