Cease vs everyone else

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

there's data to suggest the probability will be that Cease puts up numbers inferior to what Gibson did.

I'm a lot more tepid on Cease than many others here, but this is just a ridiculous statement. His FIP was like 3.70 last year.

[Billy F-Face3]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm a lot more tepid on Cease than many others here, but this is just a ridiculous statement. His FIP was like 3.70 last year.

I find it interesting that you cut out the rest of that quote.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I find it interesting that you cut out the rest of that quote.

Yeah, that's a trend.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

@Chicago White Sox was telling me that from what the WS org is saying in public, the thought is that they want to contend sooner than later and that the thought is this won’t drag out for 3-5 years.

If true, then we are definitely a good match for them and that includes Ortiz imo.

They are in the AL Central.  Aren't the Indians sort of retooling too?  Especially if they trade away Bieber.  It's funny how division rivals drive your own team sometimes.  I'm glad the NL West is getting the wrath that the AL East has always had when it comes to big spending/arms races.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I find it interesting that you cut out the rest of that quote.

None of the other stuff is relevant so I only quoted what was actually relevant. What is interesting about that?

If the Orioles acquired Cease and he somehow underperformed Gibson's 2023, then I would be forced to consider whether there is something very wrong with our coaching staff and their methods.

[wildbillhiccup]

15 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If you trade a top prospect, there's data to suggest the probability will be that Cease puts up numbers inferior to what Gibson did. At least Gibson provided reliable innings and could go deep into games regularly when we needed it to save the bullpen.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

They are in the AL Central.  Aren't the Indians sort of retooling too?  Especially if they trade away Bieber.  It's funny how division rivals drive your own team sometimes.  I'm glad the NL West is getting the wrath that the AL East has always had when it comes to big spending/arms races.  

I don't think the Indians are retooling. Otherwise they'd be wasting the best years from some of their young talented arms. I think they're just cheap and the majority of the trades they've made seem to salary motivated. 

[banks703]

Posts like THIS always bring to light just how much minor league talent is in the system, which, suggests (at least to me) that something HAS TO GIVE in terms of asset management. There's virtually no room in Baltimore for more than one, maybe two of the upper league prospects. Norfolk has basically ran out of room as well. I will continue to cite the age of some of the veteran prospects (Norby, Joey, Kjerstad) and the only reconciliation that I have is that they HAVE to move some of these guys for Major League enhancements (or continue wasting their value in the minors) or they have to move guys off of the major league roster to make room and even then, there's only so many spots.

In 2024:

Joey enters his age 26 season. Kjerstad enters his age 25 season. Norby enters his age 24 season. I share @Tony-OHsentiment that Kjerstad is sleeper trade candidate. As unpopular as it may be, I think that Westburg is the other odd-man, regardless of whether Mayo is moved to the outfielder. 

To me, there's a package to the White Sox of Kjerstad and Westburg plus filler(s) to land Cease. Certainly JW could be interchangeable with Joey, the same goes for Kjerstad with Norby or Cowser (or even Beavers but they would probably want a higher rated filler) but ultimately, two of their 10 guys probably HAVE to get moved or they're going to waste away in the minors. 

I've advocated for Cease since before the 23 deadline. I just think he makes sense in Baltimore for this window. He's a proven guy who he misses bats and pitches innings and even if he ends up as only their third-best starter in 24, he's an upgrade to the rotation from Gibson and the combo of TWells and Flaherty. Certainly Meansy factors into this as well but a five-man rotation of Cease, Braddish, GrayRod, Means and Kremer is VERY good and definitely worth two of the top 10 guys not named Holliday, Basallo or Mayo. 

[banks703]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If you trade a top prospect, there's data to suggest the probability will be that Cease puts up numbers inferior to what Gibson did. At least Gibson provided reliable innings and could go deep into games regularly when we needed it to save the bullpen.

IP the last three years:

Cease: 526.2

Gibson: 541.2

That's an average of 5 more innings pitched per season for Kyle.

WAR the last three years:

Cease: 12.6

Gibson: 7.5

K's the last three years:

Cease: 667

Gibson: 456

 

I really can't reconcile this thought of yours about the two of Gibson and Cease. I don't think that Kyle Gibson is in the same neighborhood as Cease in terms of value and potential. 

 

 

 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm a lot more tepid on Cease than many others here, but this is just a ridiculous statement. His FIP was like 3.70 last year.

I think there are a number of us. I think it’s too much risk for the asking price.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Because you may walk away from the table empty-handed.

If Cease gets injured or has another middling year, their return could go from something like Westburg/Povich/Beavers to something like Billy Cook/Juan Nunez.

I might have to join SoxTalk just to watch the meltdown if that happens.

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, banks703 said:

IP the last three years:

Cease: 526.2

Gibson: 541.2

That's an average of 5 more innings pitched per season for Kyle.

WAR the last three years:

Cease: 12.6

Gibson: 7.5

K's the last three years:

Cease: 667

Gibson: 456

 

I really can't reconcile this thought of yours about the two of Gibson and Cease. I don't think that Kyle Gibson is in the same neighborhood as Cease in terms of value and potential. 

 

 

 

Ks aren’t everything… WAR is fine and all. But, at some point the actual stats need to count. Gibson BB/9  2.6/9 vs Cease 4.0/9. Gibson 15 wins vs Cease 7 . 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

@Chicago White Sox was telling me that from what the WS org is saying in public, the thought is that they want to contend sooner than later and that the thought is this won’t drag out for 3-5 years.

If true, then we are definitely a good match for them and that includes Ortiz imo.

That's what they said in the last rebuild. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Ks aren’t everything… WAR is fine and all. But, at some point the actual stats need to count. Gibson BB/9  2.6/9 vs Cease 4.0/9. Gibson 15 wins vs Cease 7 . 

Ha.  Wins?   One pitched on a baaaad team and one pitched on a really good team.   Wins is a really silly argument.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ha.  Wins?   One pitched on a baaaad team and one pitched on a really good team.   Wins is a really silly argument.

So the actual results don’t matter? Ok He lost 8 games in his great season. Probably by walking too many and leaving with men on the bases.