Gunnar Henderson and DRS

[RZNJ]

On another thread a notorious poster said that Gunnar Henderson is not the elite defender many on here make him out to be.  My first reaction was that I don’t remember even one poster ever describing him that way.  I know he wasn’t rated that highly by QAA but neither was Anthony Volpe, the gold glove winner.  Volpe however had 15 DRS.   Dansby Swanson, the NL gold glover had 18 DRS.  Gunnar Henderson only had 10 DRS.  But here’s the kicker.   He accomplished that in about half of the innings at SS as the two gold glove winners.   I’m not saying he’s elite but the DRS stat seems to like his defense.

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaders/players?position=6

[TommyPickles]

His total DRS was 13 in 2023. He got 10 of those playing SS.

Henderson is a really good defender.

[Tony-OH]

It's always interesting to see how different systems come up with different answers for players defensively.

- Fangraphs has Gunnar as a well above average SS (10 defensive runs saved) and he comes up as a 13.8 UZR/150 at SS as well. UZR says he gets most of that from his range.
- OAA has have as average (O OAA). Interestingly, they have -2 OAA going to his lateral to his right which usually is an indication of arm strength, but Gunnar's 84th percentile arm strength would suggest otherwise. Gunnar was 2 OAA coming in on balls which is typically achieved by SS's with good quickness.
- BBRef has him as a 2.0 dWAR players though it's not broken down between positions.

So looking at all the metrics, I do think Gunnar is an above average defender at SS at 22-years old. Since most of his good scores seem to come from range and quickness, how quickly will that degrade as a gets older? Gunnar was listed at 6-3, 220 already at 22-years old. He carries that 220 well so it's not like he has weight to lose and if anything, he's going to gain weight.

So while I can easily prove that Gunnar was an above average defensive shortstop last year, is he the best defensive SS moving forward or at least the best combination of bat and fielding at SS in 2024 and beyond near term?

I'm 100% fine with him being a SS next year, especially if that means they give 3B to Mayo. This is one reason why I think Holliday will spend most if not all of 2024 in AAA at SS. It allows Holliday to improve his defensive abilities at SS, gives the Orioles one more year of control (I would not be surprised to see him get the Gunnar Henderson treatment where they give him enough PAs to not lose his rookie status), and breaks up Holliday from Henderson for free agency by two years.

 

 

 

 

[RZNJ]

They don’t have to keep Holliday down that long unless you’re worried about him placing top 3 in ROY.  With Evan Carter and possibly the Japanese pitcher being signed by an AL team it’s something to consider but I wouldn’t keep him down because I’m worried he’ll be too good.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's always interesting to see how different systems come up with different answers for players defensively.

- Fangraphs has Gunnar as a well above average SS (10 defensive runs saved) and he comes up as a 13.8 UZR/150 at SS as well. UZR says he gets most of that from his range.
- OAA has have as average (O OAA). Interestingly, they have -2 OAA going to his lateral to his right which usually is an indication of arm strength, but Gunnar's 84th percentile arm strength would suggest otherwise. Gunnar was 2 OAA coming in on balls which is typically achieved by SS's with good quickness.
- BBRef has him as a 2.0 dWAR players though it's not broken down between positions.

So looking at all the metrics, I do think Gunnar is an above average defender at SS at 22-years old. Since most of his good scores seem to come from range and quickness, how quickly will that degrade as a gets older? Gunnar was listed at 6-3, 220 already at 22-years old. He carries that 220 well so it's not like he has weight to lose and if anything, he's going to gain weight.

So while I can easily prove that Gunnar was an above average defensive shortstop last year, is he the best defensive SS moving forward or at least the best combination of bat and fielding at SS in 2024 and beyond near term?

I'm 100% fine with him being a SS next year, especially if that means they give 3B to Mayo. This is one reason why I think Holliday will spend most if not all of 2024 in AAA at SS. It allows Holliday to improve his defensive abilities at SS, gives the Orioles one more year of control (I would not be surprised to see him get the Gunnar Henderson treatment where they give him enough PAs to not lose his rookie status), and breaks up Holliday from Henderson for free agency by two years.

 

 

 

 

It would be pretty shocking to me if Holliday was in the minors beyond mid June. I can see the Os being careful of service time and super 2 with him.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They don’t have to keep Holliday down that long unless you’re worried about him placing top 3 in ROY.  With Evan Carter and possibly the Japanese pitcher being signed by an AL team it’s something to consider but I wouldn’t keep him down because I’m worried he’ll be too good.

I 100% believe that could be an issue that keeps him down this year, especially if they don't think he's ready to win it (he's not). If he has a better chance of winning it and gaining an extra pick, and there is not a big need for him (say Mayo/Henderson/Ortiz or Westburg hold down the infield in 2024). 

My guess is he gets the Gunnar treatment and comes up in late August. It just makes sense for the team in the long run unless there is a need. Right now, barring any moves, I don't see a need for Holliday in 2024 with the Orioles and he could use more work on defense and to get stronger as he grows into his man strength.

[btdart20]

Gunnar's a plus defender at SS and 3B.  Whether he's metrically "elite" or not isn't really a worry as long as he's a OPS+ thumper.  

Where Gunnar ends up revolves around 2 things IMO:

1.  Is it based on Gunnar being their first?  I hope not.  I get there's a pride/personal piece to the puzzle, but I hope it's not a barrier to other options.

2.  Does Mayo stick at 3B defensively?  This question is bigger than Ortiz or Holliday chops at SS.  If Mayo sticks at 3B, Gunnar stays at SS.  If not, then there's more decisions.

As it stands now, I'd say Gunnar's a better defender than Holliday.  Mateo hit himself out of the equation.  So, we're only looking at Ortiz as a SS contender currently.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Gunnar's a plus defender at SS and 3B.  Whether he's metrically "elite" or not isn't really a worry as long as he's a OPS+ thumper.  

Where Gunnar ends up revolves around 2 things IMO:

1.  Is it based on Gunnar being their first?  I hope not.  I get there's a pride/personal piece to the puzzle, but I hope it's not a barrier to other options.

2.  Does Mayo stick at 3B defensively?  This question is bigger than Ortiz or Holliday chops at SS.  If Mayo sticks at 3B, Gunnar stays at SS.  If not, then there's more decisions.

As it stands now, I'd say Gunnar's a better defender than Holliday.  Mateo hit himself out of the equation.  So, we're only looking at Ortiz as a SS contender currently.

It revolves around 1 thing..what scenario is the Os best IF situation?

Gunnar is, without question, better at third than Mayo. So, does that mean he should be there? Not necessarily but it’s a big factor as those are likely the only 2 long term 3rd base candidates although I think Westburg could handle the position.

We currently have 3 potentially viable high level SS in Gunnar, Holliday and Ortiz. We have the same thing at second except you replace Gunnar with  Westburg.

And we have 2 potential long term candidates for first in Kjerstad and Mayo.

One of Westburg or Ortiz will get dealt this offseason imo. So, what ends up being the best lineup?

Holliday will be the answer to that imo. If he works hard on his defense and shows that he is average to above average ML SS, he’s going to be the SS, Gunnar will be at third, Mayo at first and Ortiz or Westburg at second.

To me, that’s the most likely outcome.  I think Gunnar being the best option at third means a lot and is why you can just look at as a strict comp to who is the best defensively at SS.

[btdart20]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It revolves around 1 thing..what scenario is the Os best IF situation?

Gunnar is, without question, better at third than Mayo. So, does that mean he should be there? Not necessarily but it’s a big factor as those are likely the only 2 long term 3rd base candidates although I think Westburg could handle the position.

We currently have 3 potentially viable high level SS in Gunnar, Holliday and Ortiz. We have the same thing at second except you replace Gunnar with  Westburg.

And we have 2 potential long term candidates for first in Kjerstad and Mayo.

One of Westburg or Ortiz will get dealt this offseason imo. So, what ends up being the best lineup?

Holliday will be the answer to that imo. If he works hard on his defense and shows that he is average to above average ML SS, he’s going to be the SS, Gunnar will be at third, Mayo at first and Ortiz or Westburg at second.

To me, that’s the most likely outcome.  I think Gunnar being the best option at third means a lot and is why you can just look at as a strict comp to who is the best defensively at SS.

Everything you said is built on Mayo not sticking at 3B.  I'm not willing to concede that yet.  To put it another way, the questions I have for Mayo's strengths/weaknesses defensively at 3B aren't any bigger than what I have for Holliday at SS.  Both of their bats add value in the IF regardless.  So Gunnar, Holliday, and Mayo are the same in our IF dreams.  

Mayo-Gunnar-Holliday-HK with Ortiz at UT (what I'm hoping for)

vs

Gunnar-Holliday-Westburg/Ortiz-Mayo (what you've said)

Offensively, it's HK vs. Westburg/Ortiz as the difference.  I'll take HK all day in that math.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Everything you said is built on Mayo not sticking at 3B.  I'm not willing to concede that yet.  To put it another way, the questions I have for Mayo's strengths/weaknesses defensively at 3B aren't any bigger than what I have for Holliday at SS.  Both of their bats add value in the IF regardless.  So Gunnar, Holliday, and Mayo are the same in our IF dreams.  

Mayo-Gunnar-Holliday-HK with Ortiz at UT (what I'm hoping for)

vs

Gunnar-Holliday-Westburg/Ortiz-Mayo (what you've said)

Offensively, it's HK vs. Westburg/Ortiz as the difference.  I'll take HK all day in that math.

I think Mayo can be a ML third baseman. I just don’t see it happening with us.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Everything you said is built on Mayo not sticking at 3B.  I'm not willing to concede that yet.  To put it another way, the questions I have for Mayo's strengths/weaknesses defensively at 3B aren't any bigger than what I have for Holliday at SS.  Both of their bats add value in the IF regardless.  So Gunnar, Holliday, and Mayo are the same in our IF dreams.  

Mayo-Gunnar-Holliday-HK with Ortiz at UT (what I'm hoping for)

vs

Gunnar-Holliday-Westburg/Ortiz-Mayo (what you've said)

Offensively, it's HK vs. Westburg/Ortiz as the difference.  I'll take HK all day in that math.

Kjerstad still plays offense on my team, just not as a first baseman.

[btdart20]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad still plays offense on my team, just not as a first baseman.

Fair, that's the weakest point on my IF.  "Anyone can learn 1B, right?"  HK at 1B is still a question mark for me too.  At least 2024 has a couple of other options. 

A Hays/Mullins/Cowser OF is better defensively than Cowser/Mullins/HK.

Basallo (when not C or DH) pairs better with Mayo at 1B too.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Fair, that's the weakest point on my IF.  "Anyone can learn 1B, right?"  HK at 1B is still a question mark for me too.  At least 2024 has a couple of other options. 

A Hays/Mullins/Cowser OF is better defensively than Cowser/Mullins/HK.

Basallo (when not C or DH) pairs better with Mayo at 1B too.

Mullins and Hays aren’t Orioles beyond 2024 imo(Hays could be as a 4th OFer I guess)

Basallo can do first and DH and back up C.

Kjerstad plays in RF and DH. 
 
 

 

[Just Regular]

Recently I leveled up the baseball geekery and went to First Pitch Arizona with some league mates.     I had the chance to ask Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen a question in a panel, "5 years out, who has played more SS games for the Orioles"?

FWIW, his take was "it's Gunnar", and I heard the tone of the response like it wasn't really close in his mind.

Now, as Luhnow protege Mike Elias manages assets, any number of things may be said about Jackson Holliday's SS defense that will sound reasonable, but we'll see what actions he takes.    

If as we hope Holliday, Mayo and Basallo all push into the Best Nine Bats by October 2024, there's what....three spots left for all of Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Kjerstad and Cowser, never mind the Westburg, O'Hearn or Urias type guy.

Adley, Basallo, Holliday, Gunnar, Mayo and Mullins are six of them, health provided, and there's still hope one of Kjerstad and Cowser really clicks.      Granted Basallo perhaps more likely 2025 but his 2024 Best Cases I think involve him challenging to break in.

[Gurgi]

I think his troubles throwing to firstbase from third base at the start of the season might be his biggest problem.  I never really noticed a lot of issues with him at SS throwing.   He seems to dive for a ball and it goes right under him.  This happens over and over.  I think this will get better.