2023 Orioles #2 Prospect Samuel Basallo - C/1B

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

@Tony-OH I know this is everyone's question lately, but assuming you have to play all 3 because their bat hits, where do you play Mayo/Kjerstad/Basallo with their defensive profiles?  1B/RF/DH respectively or does something make more sense?

I've become a believer that Mayo can play 3B at the major league level so he can play there or 1B. I'd really like to know that Kjerstad is working hard this offseason on his defense at 1B. I do think his profile works best there, but I don't necessarily think he's terrible in RF. Basallo could be a very good handcuff at catcher with Adley. Together they would share catcher and DH. Basallo is a good athlete though so I do think with more work at first base that could be an option as well. 

[interloper]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I've become a believer that Mayo can play 3B at the major league level so he can play there or 1B. I'd really like to know that Kjerstad is working hard this offseason on his defense at 1B. I do think his profile works best there, but I don't necessarily think he's terrible in RF. Basallo could be a very good handcuff at catcher with Adley. Together they would share catcher and DH. Basallo is a good athlete though so I do think with more work at first base that could be an option as well. 

Would your ideal infield be Mayo 3B, Gunnar SS, Holliday 2B, Mountcastle 1B? One of the Ortiz/Westburg combo is traded, one is the utility guy? 

[spiritof66]

Thanks, Tony. I figured this would be a very positive review when it became clear his ranking was this high, but this reads like a Yelp review written by the owner of a restaurant/business. I hope you're right, or close, and he'll be the MOO bat some of think the Orioles need and may need to find outside the organization. It makes me think that if there's a need to do that it can be for just 2024.

He sounds to me like a full-time first baseman/DH and emergency catcher, rather than Adley's backup, especially if he's going to be moved up fast, as I hope is the case. 

I don't know how these things work, but I would hope that having a draftee from the Dominican succeed in MLB would enhance the Orioles' image there and internationally, more so if he is advanced quickly.

[Just Regular]

I enjoyed the "laughably listed" line too, and had chuckled at that already seeing some of the late season videos contrasted with B-Ref sticking by 6-3, 180 for the moment.     I think they had Felix Bautista at his 10th grade size for a long time too, and maybe in spring training we'll get a visual of the two of them next to each other.

A basic question to watch will be if Elias simply regards the Bat too good to encumber with the enormous defensive challenge.     If he can challenge 600 HR, maybe just go do that.

Broadly I think the outfielders are the ones crunched because I'm hoping if it is playable we get 3B Mayo, 1B Basallo on the infield corners, at least for a little while.   Hays and Santander are competitive with Kjerstad and Cowser, but I think Mayo and Basallo have O'Hearn and Ortiz pipped.    I could picture the Lee May-Eddie Murray thing happening with perhaps Mountcastle and Basallo at 1B/DH at some point.

Adley, Holliday, Gunnar and Mullins/Bradfield up the middle are on lock.     

A small indicator early next spring that may be a clue is if Outfield Westburg is a development focus.

I get during Talent Accumulation phase it behooved Elias to play positiional flexibility games with all the prospects as part of ongoing asset value maximization.    That phase is over now, and his championship core is ready to take the field.

The bubbling up of enough potent Bats perhaps in time relieves Adley of 2023's DH load, and unlocks him for more like 125 catcher starts.

[btdart20]

34 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I enjoyed the "laughably listed" line too, and had chuckled at that already seeing some of the late season videos contrasted with B-Ref sticking by 6-3, 180 for the moment.     I think they had Felix Bautista at his 10th grade size for a long time too, and maybe in spring training we'll get a visual of the two of them next to each other.

A basic question to watch will be if Elias simply regards the Bat too good to encumber with the enormous defensive challenge.     If he can challenge 600 HR, maybe just go do that.

Broadly I think the outfielders are the ones crunched because I'm hoping if it is playable we get 3B Mayo, 1B Basallo on the infield corners, at least for a little while.   Hays and Santander are competitive with Kjerstad and Cowser, but I think Mayo and Basallo have O'Hearn and Ortiz pipped.    I could picture the Lee May-Eddie Murray thing happening with perhaps Mountcastle and Basallo at 1B/DH at some point.

Adley, Holliday, Gunnar and Mullins/Bradfield up the middle are on lock.     

A small indicator early next spring that may be a clue is if Outfield Westburg is a development focus.

I get during Talent Accumulation phase it behooved Elias to play positiional flexibility games with all the prospects as part of ongoing asset value maximization.    That phase is over now, and his championship core is ready to take the field.

The bubbling up of enough potent Bats perhaps in time relieves Adley of 2023's DH load, and unlocks him for more like 125 catcher starts.

It'll be interesting to see if Basallo gets some MLB reps in Sept 2024.  

Sounds like you're leaning toward Ortiz as the Odd Man Out vs. Westburg.  How much of that decision do you think is connected to Mayo at 3B vs. Holliday at SS?  Or is it as simple as Westburg has more power and has basically passed the rookie testing?

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It'll be interesting to see if Basallo gets some MLB reps in Sept 2024.  

Sounds like you're leaning toward Ortiz as the Odd Man Out vs. Westburg.  How much of that decision do you think is connected to Mayo at 3B vs. Holliday at SS?  Or is it as simple as Westburg has more power and has basically passed the rookie testing?

I hope one or both of Westburg or Ortiz is a starting Ray or Brewer or White Sock or Angel next year, but we'll see who comes to camp.

Following the money, Elias paid Westburg more than 5X Ortiz's bonus, and both have done well.

I hope Ortiz is awesome, but for me it is kind of a byproduct of Elias' overall portfolio doing so well that a $450k NCAA guy feels less dynamic.    It was a small bummer the White Sox got Nicky Lopez in their ATL deal.     Nicky Lopez was a 5th round college shortstop and is only 3.3 years older than Ortiz, though it feels like he has been in the Show a long time by now.

Mayo-Gunnar-Holliday-Basallo is an IF configuration I hope can do legendary type things the next 7-8 years.      Like, cornering the market on AL All-Star starts type things.     Austin Hays cracked that lineup last year, the infielders on that roster were:

1B - Yandy, Vlad

2B - Semien, Merrifield

SS - Seager, Wander

3B - Jung, J. Ramirez

Two years out, are any of those incumbents preferable to the Oriole?

[CaptainRedbeard]

Juan Soto, 18 years old, A ball: 96 PA, .360/.427/.523, .425 wOBA, 172 wRC+

Samuel Basallo, 18 years old, A+ ball: 115 PA, .333/.443/.688, .485 wOBA, 195 wRC+

Juan Soto played 39 more games in the minor leagues at the start of the following season, his age 19 season, before 116 games in the majors with a 146 wRC+. 

(I know it’s unfair to compare to Soto and Basallo doesn’t have the otherworldly plate discipline, and Basallo’s A ball numbers prior to his promotion to A+ (in a larger sample) still come in behind Soto’s at that level. But Basallo has much more power at the same age and what he did at the end of his age 18 season in A+ ball was ludicrous and exceptionally rare.)

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

1B - Yandy, Vlad

2B - Semien, Merrifield

SS - Seager, Wander

3B - Jung, J. Ramirez

Two years out, are any of those incumbents preferable to the Oriole?

Only 2 on the right end of the age scale.  And 1 of them has off-field issues that could prove Bauer-level kryptonite.

I'm with you on the Stuff of Legend.  Here's to the '27 Orioles!

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Could he be in the running for a #1 MLB prospect for a 4th straight year entering 2025? Very exciting.

Curious to hear thoughts/reports on the defense. Are there any comps for 35/45 level catchers sticking there in MLB?

I assume this question was directed toward @Tony-OH and not me (it should be, lol), but I'll give it a shot.

I think 40 defense plays for a backup catcher who can really hit, but it's far from ideal. It comes down to 1) is the strike zone automated and maybe more importantly, 2) roster construction. It's certainly a real bonus if you have a booming backup catcher who can actually log innings at catcher. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I assume this question was directed toward @Tony-OH and not me (it should be, lol), but I'll give it a shot.

I think 40 defense plays for a backup catcher who can really hit, but it's far from ideal. It comes down to 1) is the strike zone automated and maybe more importantly, 2) roster construction. It's certainly a real bonus if you have a booming backup catcher who can actually log innings at catcher. 

What is the actual knock on Basallo’s defense?  Framing?  Blocking?   He seems to throw runners out.   At 18, now 19 I’m not sure why the future projection on his defense is below average, at best.

The report said his receiving and blocking improved this year.  Isn’t there a realistic path to being an average or better receiver if he continues improving?

Edited November 17, 2023 by RZNJ

[maybenxtyr]

I had hoped he would make the 100 list for MLB earlier in the season...he did just that! He's one of the best hitters I've seen come through Delmarva. The sky is the limit for him regardless of what position he ends up playing.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What is the actual knock on Basallo’s defense?  Framing?  Blocking?   He seems to throw runners out.   At 18, now 19 I’m not sure why the future projection on his defense is below average, at best.

The report said his receiving and blocking improved this year.  Isn’t there a realistic path to being an average or better receiver if he continues improving?

I think there's two problems with his defense.

1. He's huge. Most catchers aren't, though some are. 

2. He's young, so his framing, release, pitch calling and blocking are probably all somewhat raw still.

But to your point, people say he's a good athlete with a cannon. Why can't he end up a very good catcher? I certainly don't rule it out, but maybe Tony can elaborate.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I assume this question was directed toward @Tony-OH and not me (it should be, lol), but I'll give it a shot.

I think 40 defense plays for a backup catcher who can really hit, but it's far from ideal. It comes down to 1) is the strike zone automated and maybe more importantly, 2) roster construction. It's certainly a real bonus if you have a booming backup catcher who can actually log innings at catcher. 

I got the 35-45 number from Tony's article but I wasn't directing at anyone in particular. 

[now]

As of a few years back it seemed the conventional wisdom was to have the #2 catcher be a "catch and throw" guy. I wonder where Elias is at, on that score. 

[btdart20]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I got the 35-45 number from Tony's article but I wasn't directing at anyone in particular. 

I had to go back and double-check on that.  Good eye.  I was anticipating higher personally and curious about Tony's take too.

On a related note, I don't think potential defensive lags will stop/slow the bat from being promoted.  While having Jim Thome in the lineup may be a step down from having Johnny Bench, the consolation prize is still having Jim Thome in the lineup.