What are the odds that Holliday makes the Opening Day roster?

[foxfield]

I voted slim. On one hand if the #1 prospect in baseball is ready then play him. On the other hand, cracking the lineup in 2024 isn’t the low bar it was in say 2020. And this makes waiting and capturing his age 26 season pretty likely. 
 

Of course, if the Orioles begin handing out long term contracts which is also not likely, then it becomes more plausible. One final factor of course is trading players that opens up a spot for Jackson. 
 

But it is an exciting time in Baltimore when there are questions about whether the #1 prospect in all of baseball is the #1 prospect on the team. 

[Tony-OH]

On 11/17/2023 at 2:55 PM, Frobby said:

We get varying opinions about Holliday’s chances of making the Opening Day roster, so I thought I’d put it in a poll.  What do you say?

I think the only chance he makes it is if he tears it up in spring training and there's an injury to Westburg or Ortiz who should both be ahead of him. I do expect one of them to be moved this offseason though, especially with Mateo resigned to be the utility guy.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think the only chance he makes it is if he tears it up in spring training and there's an injury to Westburg or Ortiz who should both be ahead of him. I do expect one of them to be moved this offseason though, especially with Mateo resigned to be the utility guy.

I feel like Mateo might be an attractive trade option too. Not as much as Ortiz or Westburg of course. But it's a UTIL infielder who can be a starting defensive SS and backup CF in a pinch with game changing speed for less than $3 million. You can't really find that combo too often. If there's a team really hurting at SS come ST I could see it. 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, interloper said:

I feel like Mateo might be an attractive trade option too. Not as much as Ortiz or Westburg of course. But it's a UTIL infielder who can be a starting defensive SS and backup CF in a pinch with game changing speed for less than $3 million. You can't really find that combo too often. If there's a team really hurting at SS come ST I could see it. 

Mateo is a handcuff if the Orioles have to trade Ortiz in a deal, so I think that's why he was tendered. Mateo and Holliday would be only major league ready shortstops (And Holliday may not be ready) if Ortiz was traded and say something happened (God forbid) to Gunnar.

The Orioles don't want Westburg or Urias having to play shortstop for any length of time. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

This is from the creator of ZIPS. I’m guessing 2 of the 3 are A-Rod and Ripken, who debuted at similarly very young ages. 

Holliday will likely be projected to be the best rookie in the AL by the projection systems for 2024. He’s projected for 2.8 fWAR by Steamer over 550 PA, ahead of Evan Carter at 2.2 fWAR. Sounds like ZIPS will be similarly glowing, perhaps even moreso.  

Holliday may have a better chance of cracking to OD roster than we give him credit for, if the Orioles use similar projections. At the same time, Joey Ortiz is projected for a 100 wRC+ by Steamer to Holliday at 108 wRC+ and by all accounts is much better defensively right now. If the Orioles don’t trade either Ortiz or Westburg they could very well decide that even if Holliday is ready to produce like the projections think he will, it’s still better overall to get the extra year of control. 

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

This is from the creator of ZIPS. I’m guessing 2 of the 3 are A-Rod and Ripken, who debuted at similarly very young ages. 

I'd go with the Paul Molitor/Robin Yount mold.

Thanks for sharing!

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'd go with the Paul Molitor/Robin Yount mold.

Thanks for sharing!

Yount was in the majors at 18 and didn't have an OPS+ over 100 until his fifth season.

 

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yount was in the majors at 18 and didn't have an OPS+ over 100 until his fifth season.

 

So if Holliday comes out with an OPS+ over 100 can we start the HOF chants?    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

So if Holliday comes out with an OPS+ over 100 can we start the HOF chants?    

Would make him cheaper to extend long term.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

So if Holliday comes out with an OPS+ over 100 can we start the HOF chants?    

Actually, kinda. I don’t know how to look up a precise figure, but anecdotally there’s a lot of HOFers amongst the very few players who put up OPS+ over 100 in a decent number of PA in their age 20 seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was something crazy like nearly all of the players who did that became HOFers, particularly if they play premium defensive positions. Even just being good enough to make it to the majors at age 20 is very rare and a really strong predictor of going on to have an excellent career.

That’s why Holliday’s best statistical comps are HOFers. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

This is from the creator of ZIPS. I’m guessing 2 of the 3 are A-Rod and Ripken, who debuted at similarly very young ages. 

Holliday will likely be projected to be the best rookie in the AL by the projection systems for 2024. He’s projected for 2.8 fWAR by Steamer over 550 PA, ahead of Evan Carter at 2.2 fWAR. Sounds like ZIPS will be similarly glowing, perhaps even moreso.  

Holliday may have a better chance of cracking to OD roster than we give him credit for, if the Orioles use similar projections. At the same time, Joey Ortiz is projected for a 100 wRC+ by Steamer to Holliday at 108 wRC+ and by all accounts is much better defensively right now. If the Orioles don’t trade either Ortiz or Westburg they could very well decide that even if Holliday is ready to produce like the projections think he will, it’s still better overall to get the extra year of control. 

I guess this means Szymborski is posting his Orioles ZiPS projections next week.  Good, something to look forward to!

I don’t think the O’s decisions on Holliday will be based on any offseason projections model.  They’ll be based on how good Holliday looks next spring.  Elias, when noting that Holliday would have a chance to make the club, noted that there is often a big physical difference between a player at 19 and then at 20.  So, I think he wants to see what version of Holliday shows up. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Actually, kinda. I don’t know how to look up a precise figure, but anecdotally there’s a lot of HOFers amongst the very few players who put up OPS+ over 100 in a decent number of PA in their age 20 seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was something crazy like nearly all of the players who did that became HOFers, particularly if they play premium defensive positions. Even just being good enough to make it to the majors at age 20 is very rare and a really strong predictor of going on to have an excellent career.

That’s why Holliday’s best statistical comps are HOFers. 

Cesar Cedeño.  114+ at age 19 in 90 games.  97 at age 20.  162 at age 21.   Great career overall but, to my knowledge, not in the HOF.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cedence01.shtml

Edited November 22, 2023 by RZNJ

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess this means Szymborski is posting his Orioles ZiPS projections next week.  Good, something to look forward to!

I don’t think the O’s decisions on Holliday will be based on any offseason projections model.  They’ll be based on how good Holliday looks next spring.  Elias, when noting that Holliday would have a chance to make the club, noted that there is often a big physical difference between a player at 19 and then at 20.  So, I think he wants to see what version of Holliday shows up. 

Pretty close to Steamer, overall higher on the pitching but lower on the position players. About 1 WAR lower on Adley and Gunnar than Steamer, but likes Mullins more. Very strong projection on Bradish and a bit light on Grayson. And ZIPS continues its love affair with Dean Kremer. 

He also tweeted that the ZIPS top 100 prospect list is going to have Basallo very high. It projects him for an 87 wRC+ right now, which is extremely good for a 19 year old catcher. 

[Can_of_corn]

That's what about 40 WAR there?

So ~88 wins?

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's what about 40 WAR there?

So ~88 wins?

 

About 40 WAR is right, but I don’t think it adds up to 88 wins. The Orioles are 12th highest WAR on the depth charts right now based on Steamer, and only ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

ZiPS likes the Orioles maybe 1-2 WAR more than Steamer, so it won’t change much when the depth charts move to 50/50. Realistically even if the Orioles bring in some quality SP/RP in the offseason I don’t see them being much higher than the 10th highest. More likely lower since other teams will add too and I’m not expecting any big money moves.

They are going to need their current players to beat their projections, but they’ve done a good job of that on the pitching side for 2 years now. And they of course have tons of young hitting that could break out. But I’m not expecting them to be very high in the preseason win projections.